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Well if the rule-of-thumb of settling at 5% of the SOC has any value, then we should really be closer to 30p than 13p... I think it will come, especially because the chance of (eventual) success must be high here with the absolutely blatant theft of the assets by the GOI... I still a rating of closer to 10% is fair... Of course only Mr Market will decide..

NAI

SPAC announcement this month, first UK production next month??

@magoo, today's SOC must surely incorporate the current price of gold? Why would VSA increase the value of the company based on the POG, now we know that the SOC is $1.58bn?

PS my figures are after allowing an approx 10-15% deduction for LCM and other costs etc

The SOC apparently typical figure of 5% of $1.5bn 'net' is 25p per share. I think a lot of investors (and LCM putting their own money up) probably think with the egregiousness of the Indian theft gives a substantially higher chance than 5%, I would say closer to 10% personally which is approx 50p. So I'm not too worried by the sell-on-news brigade, they'll be flushed out in the next couple of days IMVHO. Then onwards and upwards.

Some people are sat on 3-4x gains, some will sell part of their holdings into the volume today to derisk. It's always the same. Makes no difference to the medium/long term value here...

Now I'm doing it LOL, fat finger I meant to say $2.3bn!

Anyway it's a lot!!

Professor despite your name you're not very good at maths LOL

At 30% tax rate the 'full' claim is $2.4bn :-)

Note that the RNS says "net of Indian taxes" which is a big boost to the figure...

A bit less than I'd hoped, but still enough to push the SP up towards 40p+ in the near future IMO

Yep LOL. So it's intraday today, or Monday 7am

Written at 06:55 16th May LOL

Agreed esduk, we (currently) own 100% of the assets being put into the SPAC!

I find it hard to believe that they will wait until the very last day to submit a company make-or-break document to the relevant body. Anything can go wrong - submit it a day early (ie Thursday)!

Basically the current market cap reflects a SOC of $1bn and a chance of success of under 5%. If you think either of those numbers (or both) is too low, then logically there is only upside...

No advice intended etc

SP ticking down slightly on low volume, probably a few people just de-risking before the big announcement?

The RSI is now close to oversold, and the MACD curve looks like bottoming out in the next week or so... So if you're a chartist then the buying point is now or very soon...

No advice of course

Esspekay, you mean because it seems that Songwe wasn't mentioned for the EU 3rd countries list? Or was it? Or has the list not been announced yet?

I find it very hard to believe that with the gold price we have at present, the SOC will be anything less than $2bn - and quite possibly a good bit more than that. Plus given that GOI have essentially blatantly incriminated themselves expropriating PAT's assets, and that they do have the money to pay, the rated chance of success here must be higher than the typical 5% at this stage. If the claim is $2bn and investors assume a 10% chance of success, then that's 70p-odd straight away. Wait a few months and PAT may get an offer of $500m tax free to walk away (probably 120p after the lawyers fees etc)

No advice intended, just my view.

Good stuff. We're on the final countdown now to signing the agreement!