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I assume that the delays are caused by Kazakhstan bureaucracy, they are an ex-Soviet state where government admin (eg to permit a foreign investor = VRB) probably takes a lot longer than it would in the West... Ultimately though the Vanadium mountain is still there!!
Just doing my research here, it certainly looks good overall. Someone further down said that they need to renew their licences. Is this just a formality, or is it an existential risk of someone else snatching it from them? Sri Lanka isn't Russia, but still it's hardly a corruption-free sort of place. Or have the licences actually been renewed? Any info appreciated.
A rollover is when someone has bought shares (600k in this case) without paying for them, on what's called an 'extended' or 'T+20' trade. After 20 sessions (actually 18, due to settlement) they have to either find the money to settle the trade (ie. take full possession of the shares), close the trade and take whatever profit/loss they've made, or roll over the trade. The latter means that the MMs usually allow the trader to extend the trade for a further 18 sessions, by selling and buying the shares back again - the downside is that this will 'cost' the trader the spread between buying and selling, which can be quite a bit eg. the 600k rollover cost the trader £900. Frankly I think they were fleeced, it should have been possible to get it rolled over for no more than £300 (ie. much narrower spread).
1. A rollover makes zero difference to trading or the share price, because it's a sell and buy a few seconds later = zero net buying or selling.
2. In terms of interpretation, as you can't 'short' on an extended trade like this, it must mean that the trader believes that the share is going to go up in the next 18 sessions. Of course it doesn't mean they're right!
For those who haven't worked it out yet, I did some detective work in January and found what I'm 99% certain is the site of FAR's existing facility. In Google Earth it's here: https://tinyurl.com/2bwasmc6 and in Google Maps it's here: https://goo.gl/maps/FGDkKGivXqYdJqVH7
It matches all the criteria we know from RNSes and the info in the CPR etc. It doesn't look like that much in the images, but remember it's currently only the small reprocessing plant. Also the satellite photos may be several years old in these remote areas.
You can see the tarmac cross-country highway running right next to the site, as described in the company's presentations, and it's around 70km to the town of Shieli as they said. Shieli hosts the international railhead to transport the Vanadium to Europe or China, which again can be confirmed from maps and online resources.
You can also see the darker areas to the SE of the plant site, which I assume are the orebodies which outcrop at the surface, as stated in the reports.
This outcropping orebody (no need for holes!), and the existence of a tarmac road and HV power lines nearby, are key reasons why the capex for constructing the full mine is so low (yes $100M is very low by the standard of major mines!).
Gloucester a good post/summary.
I don't claim to know much about BMN. But the key comparators IMO are:
* the cost of production (which is extremely low at FAR, and indeed a *negative* cost after by-product credits)
* resources (which are absolutely massive at FAR)
* capex for construction (which is a relatively tiny $100M at FAR, because the resource is amazingly all outcropping - no holes required!! - and Sir Mick has already committed the equity portion, so getting the rest in debt will be easy).
The only key risk remaining is whether the BFS confirms the outstanding economic case in the CPR... I doubt Sir Mick would have invested if he wasn't 90% sure that it will... We should know in approx July IMO...!
No advice intended DYOR
VBR will buy in once the BFS is published and confirms the economic case of the mine. However it would seem to many people very unlikely that VBR haven't at least had 'the nod' that the half-completed BFS is good, for them to make those commitments plus the 9p buyins..
Dodkins, there are HV power lines running right next to the site but they need connecting and a new substation installing. Now that funding is available the final connection will be done shortly. This will provide bigger and more stable power to the existing operation. A further upgrade will be needed for Stage 1.
Yes there is a tarmac highway at the edge of the site, leading all the way to the intercontinental railway at Shieli just 70km away...
Hard to beat the infrastructure!
You may be right Momentum.
It's certainly not impossible that they might try to do a combined Phase 1+2 in one go. Nick Bridgen didn't mention it in his recent interviews, but it would only need an extra $50M in equity and clearly that wouldn't be issued below VBR's 78p, so frankly the extra dilution would be minimal. Even if Bridgen isn't planning a combined 1+2 at the moment, Mick Davies is going to be largely in the driving seat soon.
I would say 75p in 6 months and 200p in 2 years. When Phase 2 is built in approx 4 years' time I could see it at 500p. It will depend on whether the BFS confirms the outstanding 97% IRR, but my view is that even if it's revised downwards to say 70% it's still an exceptional return, and will guarantee a multibagger from 35p (over time).
The good news is that with millions now in the bank, the company can afford to throw money at finishing the BFS as soon as possible. I expect it to be published mid-summer personally.
Just my view of course, no advice intended.
SP28, to clarify that the shares in the placing are *not* 'new' shares as you stated. They are just shares being sold by two large existing shareholders. There is no further dilution.
Bridgen's divorce settlement has been known about for at least 12 months, I posted about it multiple times, including last week when I predicted that he would sell this week!
It's clearly a completely irrelevant personal matter, nothing to do with the company's prospects. NB is basically being forced to sell some shares by a divorce judgement - less than 2.5% of the shares fully-diluted. Hardly a massive dump - after this sale, NB will still hold 50M shares!
OK so Kuznetsov wants to sell some too. Why not? He and NB have worked on this project for 10+ years, take a bit of reward and buy himself a nice house and give some money to his kids or whatever. Just like NB, Kuznetsov will still own at least 63M shares after this transaction!
So with 114M shares between them *after* these sales, I think both Bridgen and Kuznetsov will still be fully incentivised and aligned with small shareholders' interests here! (One of the things that attracted me to FAR in the first place). And of course Sir Mick Davies is now, too...
It's true this placing might hold us back around 30p for a bit - depends who buys the shares. Hopefully instis or HNWs, who won't sell for a quick 5% turn...
This is absolutely zero problem for anyone planning to wait until Sir Mick Davies has delivered this astoundingly lucrative mining project! People spreadbetting, or trading on credit or T+20s... well you should know that's essentially gambling...
Come back in 6-7 months with the small plant in full operation, BFS published and Phase 1 funding finalised or close to, and I believe that 30p will be some way in the rear-view mirror.
Good luck all, no advice intended etc
Mong, your original post at 19:09 shows either a total lack of understanding of corporate finance (or even simple ability to read RNSes), or you are a cynical de-ramper preying on the naive.
Surely you can read in the RNS last Monday that Mick Davies has agreed to invest a further $30M at up to 78p? Surely you understand that Mick Davies doesn't have to stump up $100M, and that the $30M in equity will allow a further $70M to be raised in debt? And that $70M is absolutely f*ck-all for a significant mining project, and will be a cake-walk for a man with Mick Davies' skills and contacts, and a project with an IRR of 97%? And that Phase 2 will be funded from Phase 1 profits, or they might even decide to go for broke and do a combined Phase 1+2 which would need only an extra $50M in equity to deliver a 4x increase in profits? And that no sensible/honest person can predict an SP tomorrow or next week or next month, but that if all goes to plan the SP will be multiple times 35p in the fullness of time?
Please tell me you understand that?
Share price down a little bit, but so are volumes, I suspect not too many people being shaken out by the MMs so far? Any 40p limit sells would have been executed on Friday, and I doubt anyone buying at 41p or 42p would have set a 40p stop loss?
I've never heard of Trading212. Best to use a quality broker IMO, they may charge a few quid per trade, but unless you're investing £100-200 a time (in which case my advice would be to wait until you've got a bit more capital) then this is not a lot.
Personally I have used Interactive Investor for years - although they charge £100 a year or so, you get some free trades thrown in with that, after which standard trades are £7.99. Not the cheapest, but they are a quality, reliable platform with great customer service. I'm not on commission with them BTW, LOL!
Having said that, I had trouble buying more last week, I think people had finally realised that the company was grossly undervalued and were buying heavily, so there were few shares available. For the first time in a long time, I was pressing the 'At Best' button!!
Good luck all, NAI