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Thanks China and Hulk.

China, your post was cut off, can you finish? What is your own estimate of valuation of PRE in the coming 12-18 months, if we were to assume that Pensana ends up owning say 50% of Ozanga, and also achieved a Nasdaq listing? Paul Atherley said on an investor call at his other company (ALK) that a Nasdaq listing requires a market cap of $1.5bn minimum, but I don't think it's anything like that??

There still seems to be a level of uncertainty as I'm discovering as I dive into the RNSes... Do we expect the Phase 1 finance package (EXIM plus mystery strategic investor) to be fully resolved and debt drawn down/equity issued in the next few weeks? It will have to be or else the early mine construction will grind to a halt soon enough...

Right then I've continued my research this afternoon... And got quite mixed up by the recent RNSes!

* Phase 1 is fully funded. So why is EXIM offering to fund $160m debt "for Longonjo mine"? Is this for Phase 2?

* Pensana have announced offtakes of 20,000 tons each for Toyota and ReElement. That's 40,000 tons = the total output of both Phases 1 and 2. So how can they then announce a further offtake with the German Vacuumwhatever company??

* Earlier this year the Angolan wealth fund was issued shares in the Ozanga subsidiary which was stated at that time as being 84% owned by Pensana. Has that 84% now been decreased due to dilution at project level, or is the 84% fixed? Will there be dilution in future? What %age of the Longonjo project will Pensana eventually own?

Thanks for any info on this.

Hulk, personally I don't think the Nasdaq minimum share price is something to focus on, because it's always possible to do a (say) 5:1 consolidation to meet that share price, or less disruptively to just package up (say) 5 Pensana shares into a single ADR for trading on US markets. That's my understanding anyway, unless anyone knows differently?

I think it's best to just focus on prospects for the 'organic' share price, personally.

A ten bagger seems a bit ambitious IMO, a £4bn cap? Not impossible I suppose, if Phase 2 is delivered and rare earth prices stay high, and there are no execution mishaps, political events etc. I would think that a 5-bagger is perfectly possible though?

NAI

Mumbles please stay, your input seems to be well respected. Just step back from being needled on relatively trivial matters IMO.

Thanks for the tips and the research note.

Perhaps the extra, somewhat unexpected $100m is partially to carry out their proposed acceleration of early production, from mid-2027 into late 2026?

Or some of it could simply be an increased contingency reserve? I remember investing in an under-construction tungsten mine in Spain, at a promising low valuation, but 3/4 of the way through construction a flaw in the design became apparent, they didn't have the money to fix it, and went bust, someone else picked up the pieces but the existing shareholders were wiped out (luckily I had seen the writing on the wall and got out at a small loss).

So there will be 450m-odd shares in issue after the 95m from the unnamed strategic investor plus various warrants etc. £400m cap today.

Is the $100m strategic investment being considered as the equity component of the Phase 1 capex? I'm other words there is no more need for further capex equity, and the remaining funds will come from debt. eg the EXIM proposals?

I've come in to the board hoping to find some discussion of the business plan, financial forecasts etc, as I have some cash looking for a home, and have just found 3 or 4 posters slagging each other off about where the CEO worked 20 years ago. Really not very helpful. On with my research however...

Surely the issue here, while on a modest p/e of about 9-10, is precisely what others have hinted at: that the business model ("tickets") faces structural threat from innovations like tap-in-tap-out on the mainline railway? (As mentioned on TFL in the last H1 results). East Midlands are the latest train company to be trialling this, I was reading recently. Will standalone journey "tickets" really exist in 10 years' time? They might still exist but they could be a small minority of journeys. When will the ramp-down start... 4 or 5 years' time?

Compare to RCH, on a p/e of 3 and throwing off huge cash and dividends... because everyone knows that printed newspapers are in their death throes and the company is struggling to transition to a digital model...

To me Trainline is similar, clearly undervalued but in structural decline.

I hasten to add that I'm only looking in here after a tip, and have only done a bit of basic research.

Good luck to all holders anyway.

Can anyone confirm that the 95M shares from the $100m strategic investor are *not* (yet) included in the current TVR of 339M shares? Thanks.

This continued repeated back and forth is becoming very very tedious. If you don't like a poster then simply filter him! The never-ending ping pong just gives trolls what they want (constant attention), while distracting everyone else from discussing the merits or otherwise of the company (which is what they also want). Please use the filter.

Adamlowe yes you might be right... Hopefully we'll see the PFS in January then... Let's hope to see an approx $1bn NPV?

There are large UTs at the end of many days recently. Are these related to the buybacks, or are the professional shorters (who must have approx 4m shares short) starting to close?

I've sent a message to the company asking why they haven't released the PFS, and CCed to info@allenbycapital.com telling them the PFS must be price-sensitive information and therefore must be released. If all of us do the same hopefully they'll react!

The only clue we have is that IM said in a recent interview that the capex was "150 million or so", I assume that's USD, if so that would be encouraging as it's (relatively) small by mining capex numbers, as you would expect from a relatively simple essentially open-pit operation.

The DFC are throwing $3-5m grants around Africa like confetti. HREE's project is a lowish capex, high value source of REs. I see no reason they wouldn't approve it, I hope by February or so.

Savealittle, you need to better understand the ideas of cashflow, fundraises, and the general way the stock market works. Just because the company has made solid progress, doesn't mean it had enough cash to make that progress. It has had to do two or three large fundraises to keep the coffers full, and it seems like there will be another final one sometime next year. Being at the pre-revenue stage will always hold a company's share price back, that's just how the SM works. Of course speculation can drive it upwards (or downwards) at any time, on top of those fundamentals.

Having done some more research, my own assessment is that the SP could be at around 30-35p when in production in 2028 at today's tin price (of course the tin price in 2028 could be higher or lower than this...).

There is also the risk of something going wrong, ie. execution risk, as they go through the final phase of building the main plant etc - they wouldn't be the first mine to fall at the final hurdle... or at least, for existing shareholders to get nothing, while someone else gets the benefit of all their hard work...

But overall they have made good progress, their plans make sense, and two highly credible major investors anchored the fundraise in early 2025. So I'd say they have an 80%+ chance of getting into production at this point... If you were to agree (no advice intended of course, it's just my views) then you'd need to consider whether to average down at 8p, or just leave your average at 16p.

Good luck whatever you decide. NAI as stated

If you've been invested since "day one" 5 years ago, the IPO at 7p, then you would be in profit at 7.8p today ... Suspicious post IMO...

Have the company never considered transporting the concentrate out via Zambia and Tanzania on the Tazara railway? That would avoid the unstable and violent northern part of Mozambique, and isn't vastly longer, with Kasiya being in northern Malawi. Despite the Japanese seemingly investing a load of money into the Nacala railway, I fear that it may become a magnet for terrorist attacks...

Just looking into this for possibly some spare cash I have available. Started my research on the company website, interviews etc. There seems to be a lot of positives here, but my main concern is that none of the info I've found (so far) clarifies what their plan is to put together the package for the remaining funding...

There's a figure of £198m pre-production capex. Is the £45m raised last January included in that, or extra? If it's included, does that imply that most of the remaining amount will be debt? (ie. minimal further dilution)?

How are the company able to proceed to FID in Q1 2026 (they say) when they only have a PEA issued so far? Are they close to completion of a BFS?

Thanks for any info.

The other issue is that you can never really know exactly when the shorters close. A closing/buy-back trade of say 250k shares would probably have its publication delayed by at least 1 day automatically due to its size. I think the delay for reporting changes in short positions is 2 days, but I know that the regulations are very complex, and I very much doubt that the FCA would impose any consequences on anyone 'inadvertently forgetting' to notify them for a few days, especially if it's an overseas entity. What is the FCA going to do to a US hedge fund at the best of times? With the orange aggressor in the White House today, they'll do absolutely nothing! So for all we know, the shorters might have already started to close out. Who knows???

The point that a couple of people have made, that the shorters won't want to pay back the divi if they are still shorting on the 16th Jan record date, seems to me to be the only 90% certainty. (The remaining 10% chance is that the shorters know something which means they're confident that the company is going down the toilet... but then I doubt that the PDMRs would have thrown £100k+ down the toilet today as well??)

Just my views, no advice etc