Member Info for cyberbub

Agreed Tom. The company only need to sell 1500-1600 tests for the FY to break even. With the hockey stick growth being experienced, and 591 sold in H1, I can see that being easily achievable.

Hazbeen, $100m for a large mineral processing plant is very low compared to most peers, and should be easy to raise even in Kazakhstan, if the IRR in the BFS is as high as we hope.

But I think you know all that?

They need to double sales in order to break even. However I don't see this as being particularly difficult from a very low base, given the market size.

I don't think hiring two more sales people is going to make much difference in the notoriously impenetrable and complex US drugs market, but the hiring of a commercial partnerships director bodes well for a Tempus/RENX type announcement in the coming 6 months?

The company has been badly mismanaged financially IMO, but I think the product will finally do the talking. Basically it's now all to play for IMO, so I've bought back in after selling my holding at a loss at 1.7p earlier this year, when the likelihood of an emergency rock-bottom placing became apparent...

Good luck all, no advice etc

Tweedly, placing shares don't normally get printed as if they were a trade, they just appear in your account?? Seems odd. Anyway that could be it, who knows.

No comments on the late declared 11M share trade at 9.50p, allegedly from this morning at 07:57(!) but more likely worked from last week?

Mysterio you need to take the large shareholders holdings from a company's website (check the last date they updated it).

PS I would add that the other thing we're awaiting news on is the 20t sample sent to a potential offtake 3 months ago. I can't imagine that it would take much more than 3 months to send a 20t sample on a truck to neighbouring China, and it be tested for consistency in relevant industrial processes (tyre making etc). So the spike today could also be due to belief (or knowledge) that an announcement on an offtake is due.. imagine if we got both the FS and the offtake next week! We can dream anyway LOL

It doesn't matter, $1bn NPV is $1bn NPV!

I assume that the FS will cover both CB as well as V though. As usual there will probably be sensitivity figures for different commodity prices.

I estimate that every $1bn on the NPV is worth around 30p on the share price - especially if the other aspects (capex and IRR) are also favourable. So a $2bn NPV should be worth up to 60p IMO

Looks like Monday is the big day? 🤞

NAI

Mikemine you say that the test would be a bit pricey for the NHS, but (a) healthcare companies often change their prices for different markets, many drugs are cheaper in the UK than the US, and (b) the economic logic (prevention of expensive treatment) is still very strong in the UK!

PS I'm thinking there will possibly be an RNS on Monday morning explaining this arrangement, which will then be discussed in the presentation later.

The RTO will be interesting. The £30m figure is actually irrelevant as it's only notional. What matters is the notional price the new shares are issued at. Say 3p, that means 1bn shares issued and today's shareholders would retain about 13% of the value of Coiled. If the value of Coiled goes to $1bn in due course (like the other one from the A2A stable) then the share price would be around $0.90 each, or around 70p...

Can we all stop the repetitive posts about how to calculate market cap? It's getting a bit tedious now.

We've just had a true golden cross on the charts today, with both the 20 and 50 day rising... Usually a very bullish sign! Meanwhile the 14-day RSI is high but not overbought...plenty of room for rises...

GLA No advice etc

Will probably be tiered depending on test numbers, from 15% for modest numbers down to 5% for very high numbers per year.

Katsrangler I was thinking more of the main placing holders...

You can see people selling blocks at 9.85p, they will be front-selling their allocation in the placing IMO. That's only a 3.5% profit, or they might sell at 10p for a 5.2% profit. It seems mad but that what a lot of people do, and who can blame them. A risk-free 3-5% in less than a week is not to be sneezed at, especially if you can keep doing it multiple times per year if you're one of the wealthy few who gets invited to placings every week.

Meanwhile people who can see the real value just hold tight :-)

And the sellers can only sell once :-) :-)

Well yes, the finance package isn't going to be closed overnight, but if the IRR is high and the capex is fairly low, and there's a full offtake agreed, you would think that that would be attractive enough that it could all be closed by Q2 next year and construction starts?

It never made sense that revenues would stay the same with Tempus on board, as 250,000 doctors (even if only 5-10% of them are renal/diabetes specialists) is still a massive step change on the number of doctors that RENX had previously onboarded.

I would think that 5x previous revenues would be easily achievable, in due course. And it can't take that long to integrate the test into Tempus's workflow surely? A month at most I would think.

No advice of course, GLA

This latest RNS at 14:00 re. forward guidance is exactly what I'd hoped for! It never made sense that the Tempus deal would lead to minimal increase in the forecasts - when Tempus have 250,000 doctors on their books! You would expect forecasts to go 5-10x up with Tempus on board. Yes Tempus will obviously take their 'cut' so margin will drop a bit - but 250,000 doctors is mega!

Looking forward to the updated guidance this side of Xmas (if not earlier).