Member Info for CrustyPete

Not negative SG; well not in my opinion anyway. Just balancing some of the unjustified, fanciful and hyberbolic "plugs" from some whose attitude it appears is simply to "talk their book".

Oh and less of the "Old" please ;-)

You're on your own there chum.

Do you mean that you need some help ramping the **** out if that too....?

Or could be about to not drop some tasty news.....

We have seen a similar pattern of peaks and troughs on this share many times over the last 4 - 5 weeks and everyone of them has been touted as evidence of "imminent news".

I suppose even a stopped clock has to be right eventually.....

Personally I would not put any store at all in anything that Camarco might say. They are not allowed to say anything that might contradict the official line nor anything that isn't deliberately non- committal or ambiguous.

For goodness sake, they are a Financial PR Company after all.

A bit like Malcy only not quite so obvious about it...

I wouldn't disagree with any of that Trek but time has proven many wrong who have been saying for weeks that we "have seen the last of the II selling....". Time has proven that the scale of the II selling has been a lot larger than many here had made allowance for. I believe there is still more yet to come.

That said, I am not concerned as it allows me and others to drip more money in over more weeks than I had hoped for. I just hope it continues for a little longer yet.

You may be right BG but, yet again, just pure conjecture..... as always - when it comes down to the Tanzanian authorities and their actions. Where oh where is the transparency? And without that transparency there is always the significant risk of corruption.... actually I am not sure that corruption is the (single biggest) issue here; just pure downright incompetence.

It is very difficult to prove a negative BG - perhaps you could provide evidence that supports an opposing view? What is the justification for any of the below? (Oh and I don't mean conjecture or personal hypotheses btw) Why the length of time to grant the work programme for the remediation of Kiliwani? The failure to resolve the issues of the outstanding invoices? The serial failure to grant License extensions on time? The inordinate length of time taken to complete the PSA review? The outstanding approval of the 25 year work programme? (Oh and no, it was never contingent on the License Extension by the way, as is now proven by the fact that we now have one and still not the other....)

But anyway I will not be around for much of the afternoon, so whatever you reply with I won't be able to read it for some considerable time today.

They have one huge advantage Tanzania - they are a "producing entity". They provide the Gas that Tanzania needs. Remember that old adage "do not look a gift horse in the mouth"? Remember those days Tanzania? The days when Kiliwani was still producing, when we earned $800k per month, when our destiny was in our own hands? All squandered under the mismanagement of BH and his cohorts.

Only joking Tanzania. Though there is some truth in that "tongue in cheek" comment. The day we messed up Kiliwani we lost all and any "leverage" with the Tanzanian authorities and maybe their support and confidence too..... that coming hard on the heels of the NT2 "tragedy" was hard to bear for all concerned and ultimately marked our decline to the totally parlous state that we are in today.

Though let me be clear AEX are in no different a position to many other O&G players in Tanzania - so it is not totally down to these calamities. But with out that leverage we were no longer part of the "in" crowd. By which I mean one of the few companies upon whom the Tanzanian authorities actually relied - rather than one of the many that they could afford to exploit and manipulate....

Just my view, of course.

Since when were the actions or non actions of the Tanzanian Govt ever dependent on anything - except maybe the next brown envelope....?

Don't count your chickens here; we have seen these short term rises three or four times in recent weeks over 50p 2/3 times and once over 60p but none of them lasted. As several people have suggested with a large dilution taking place at 50p there will be plenty that will take the opportunity of taking some risk off the table with a small profit; even providing some with a free carry opportunity. Many were buying in at 35p or thereabouts only a week or two ago. They can now cash in and leave themselves risk free.

But if they do have another slide I will be topping up again as I have done 3/4 times in recent weeks.

If you are correct CP I suspect that the MM's are matching a limit purchase order with a "known" seller or sellers; this would be the usual explanation.

You are actually still correct MAX, it would have to be at something above the three month average so unless a bid or placement occurs some three months after farm out and the post farm-out price is maintained for an extended period the average will still be well below anything even close to 3p let alone 5p in my view.

Their 29.9% stake was bought at 1.3p

There is little to no chance of getting a capital raise away without confirmation of the Farm-Out beforehand.

ARA is an investment company - a merger with them makes no sense at all.... APT now, is another issue.

"the wait's getting very tedious now!"

Only now?! It has been tedious throughout the last three years.... and if we do not get that news early next week we all know what will happen next to that 31st July longstop date.

You could make that claim everyday of the week BF

Agreed Frank, insufficient volume and value to indicate a leak, we had a similar but, unfortunately, short lived rise just before the last longstop date; a few speculators and "wouldn't want to be out over the weekend" brigade methinks. They will be just as quickly out of it if the next longstop date gets too close for their comfort.

5 - 8p ?!?! Edgar really?

My view is that if we see 3.5p before the spud we will be very lucky. During spud, when the rainbow chasers join the party anything is possible but prior to that there will be too many taking money off the table to get anywhere near 5p let alone 8p in my opinion.

GLA