Member Info for CrustyPete

With the last major dilution at 50p there was always a risk of a sell of at anything significantly above that entry price. It will eventually dry up and at that point we should see a long awaited and sustained rise

Now BG that sounds fantastic - I would happily join you on that escapade. Why are you on this board when you could be doing that? You are not Justyn Anwyl are you?! ;0)

As vike said a day or two ago - there is a fat chance that the Zubairs will be flying on a charter flight...

You stated earlier "what I heard it is very soon joeltg99 !!!!"

And I asked "So what have you heard and who from Frank?" So Frank, just stop the bs and answer the question.

Yet again, "So what have you heard and who from Frank?" Just answer the question.

So having read through the endless, rambling response you have written below the answer is what exactly - you have "heard NOTHING!"

So just to be very clear, when you wrote ""what I heard it is very soon joeltg99 !!!!" you were indeed talking out of your fundament Frank - it was actually just your personal opinion?

MAX as I have said several times previously there can be no connection between the AGM and the "news". The AEX Board have absolutely no control over when the F/O gets approved and had to set a date for the AGM weeks ago (tp conform with necessary protocols) hence it was never going to be any more than good luck for the two to coincide. This is amply demonstrated by the fact that they were originally expecting the F/O approval a week or so ago and have had to extend the longstop date out once again - can anyone, even the AEX Board, guarantee that they won't have to extend it yet again....? No, of course not.

We are all hoping that it drops before the 31st but, yet again, it would be foolish to bank on it.... How much evidence do people need that any timescale that relies on the Tanzanian Gov for delivery is always likely to disappoint.

That'll be Frank MAX.... I asked below for some form of validation of the source buy, typically, it has yet to be forthcoming; so, of course, is totally unreliable and I wouldn't put any faith in it whatsoever....

"TWO YEARS"? Consider yourself lucky John.....

GLA

So what have you heard and who from Frank?

"too surprised"....? Too surpsied for what? Let's face it BG after years of waiting it has to come at some point and I wager that I will be a feck sight less surprised than the vast majority of the rose tinted spectacle brigade were when we needed yet another long-stop extension.... Though I suppose we ought to make allowances for those that have been an AEX investor for less than 5 years :0)

Perhaps perversely I seriously hope that Magafuli and his henchmen do win another term at the helm, otherwise we risk another 5 years of stagnation as the new incumbents follow Magafuli and all previous administrations in filling their bottom drawer with their own brown envelopes..... I would hope that the current administaration is already sufficiently well heeled after 5 years in office to actually get on and complete on some of their promises.

Just a General Election ploy? Those that have been here for as long as I have are used to this sort of stuff - just like the celebrations on signing a deal referenced earlier by CP. It is all nothing but spin. Many here were quite excited with the prospects of a new Magafuli Government 5 years ago but it was another false dawn; in fact you could make a good case for it being a disaster for Aminex and other O&G companies in Tanzania - the whole industry has been ham-strung for 3 years now with the fecking PSA review and additional beaurocracy.

" was the main-spring for the farm-out" well I would agree BG that had the NT1 drill not identified (or confirmed) the nature and scale of the potential within the Ntorya basin, the Farm-Out would not have happened (there would have been nothing worth farming out) but I think the "mainspring" as you put it was the fact that AEX was totally parlous, had destroyed its only source of income and has no possible option but to farm-out to someone that was both capable and adequately funded to do so. The Aminex Board has been given just enough rope to prove themselves inadequate on both counts and in the process had killed the Kiliwani golden egg. A situation of the Board's own making compounded by the incoherent, self-destructive and corrupt nature of the Tanzanian Authorities

It might be argued BG that had it not been for the "feck-up" with KN1 and the almost disastrous outcome of the NT1 drill ARA may well have been happy sitting as purely as a "cornerstone investor" and not the now Ruvuma Licence Operator and principle partner in the JV; but after watching events from the sidelines they no longer have the confidence to leave them to look after the Zubairs 30% investment. That the mismanagement of those projects, erosion of the balance sheet, P&L and shareholder value has convinced them that they needed to intercede before it disappeared altogether.

Yes BG that is one way of looking at it however, my point BG is that whilst it may once have been true that "Also the fact that the Zubrair's took a 30% holding in Aminex and have continually supported it, would suggest it considers Aminex as having potential and as a strategic vehicle for growth." nothing stands still. I am sure that once upon a time even the TPDC had some confidence in AEX but do they still have any credilbility as an independent entity? No cash, a failed project (KN1) , a **** up with NT1 and no meaningful operational infractructure (all now sitting with APT).

My would you trust AEX to deliver anything into SS GPP particularly when AEX have already admitted that they cannot support that financially without a "partner".

And I am reminded of it almost every bloody day. "This was meant to be my pension, will I ever be able to retire!", "Why did I ever listen to you?", "I thought investments were expected to grow", "I would have done better putting it in a Cash ISA", "I could have bought a new car with that", "I suppose that is another year without a summer holiday for me and the kids"....

Good grief have I paid for it.

So now you know why I gave BH both barrels - :0)

It would depend on the order that the Dominoes might fall F&C. What order will we see
AGM
Farm-Out completion
News of pre-drill work programme
Spud date

And what will the news / dates be?

Ideally we get Farm-Out completion, AGM, pre drill work programme and Spud Date all at the same time and that spud date is within "touching distance". If that is the case then I would hope that all those that have been sitting on the sideline will jump in and the LTHs will be sitting on their hands. Moreover I would hope and expect resolution of the outstanding invoices and approval of the Kiliwani work programme at some point in the coming months. (Though I do have one concern post Farm-Out and that is that once APT are the Ntorya Operator, will the TPDC even recognise AEX and Kiliwani as priorities - they could - I stress could -both become totally sidelined)

If we just get the Farm-Out news on its own that will be disappointing and whilst there will be many who will dive in on the basis that the project has been "de-risked" there may be just as many who decide that they wish to call it a day and cash in their chips - albeit maybe only short term....

Personally if the Spud is within the next 6 months I will be holding firm in any event - though I may cash in my wife's 2 million as it causes me far tooooo much grief!!

I could not agree more with that BG; after all after so many "false dawns" it would be totally understandable for anyone to be distrusting of any target dates that are reliant on the Tanzanian authorities for delivery. How many times have been been let down previously? Every, bloody time is the truth. The Farm-Out is probably the single worst example of it - how many times has the long stop been extended? Would anyone out their mortgage on it not being put back again? I bloody wouldn't.

The "proof of the pudding is in the eating".

Yes those that wait for the Farm-Out completion might miss out on some of the rise but better that, many would argue, than taking the plunge too early and finding that you are significantly underwater before the news breaks. There is the slim chance that the F/O may not happen at all and why oh why would you choose to take that risk for the sake of a small loss in upside.

If I didn't already have many millions would I be buying them today or would I wait for the Farm-Out? The answer is a "no brainer".....

Robert Ambrose would not want the AEX Directors to exercise their Options largely because ARA are shareholders in AEX and any amount of options exercised by the Board would dilute ARA as well as PI's. He is protecting ARA and, in this case PI's interests.

I would not be surprised if it is an unwritten (or even written) agreement in the recent arrangement on APT loans and the advances against future payments.

I would agree that an IPO would be good news from a "valuation" perspective as it provides a "mark to market". The downside is, of course, that it is likely to be a significant "dilution" for existing shareholders as the capital is then drawn down to pay for overhead.

That is correct OG and shared staff costs for those working on the Ntorya project - that said, firstly I am not sure what that cost is likely to be - after all how much work has actually taken place during that period? Not a lot methinks. Secondly I was given to believe that some of it had already been paid (though cannot remember why I should think that!).