Member Info for CrustyPete

BG, you may well be correct though my recollection of events was largely the same as mather's. Though actually your comments rather miss the whole point of my post, which was to highlight that neither of them "paid" much at all for their shares except by handing over their ownership of Canyon O&G to AEX - which was subsequently deemed to have no value at all! (Another fantastic venture completed BH and his cronies, to join with the likes of Kenya, Madagascar, Egypt and Shoats Creek.....)

If you would rather argue the toss over when PT started to dispose of his shares then feel free, go ahead, I concede! - I really couldn't care less.

Well yes Edgar he did but only if you accept that he received most of his shares in payment for Aminex's acquisition of Canyon Oil and Gas! An acquisition of an asset that was eventually written down to £Zero some 4 years or so after Aminex acquired it. Phil Thompson received circa 150 million shares for his Canyon holding which he then sold all the way up to and then down from the 7p price level hot during NT2 drill (average circa 3.5p at a guess).

I would agree vike that 4p is eminently achievable on the run up to and during spud, though I do believe the sale of 50% to APT will mean that we do not hit the previous highs. Yes a bigger potential payload but no longer the operator and with a much reduced stake, no cash and no income. I hope I am wrong but was too greedy previously (just 0.2p short of by target price!) and won't be making the same mistake again....

Killerwhale - you state that we still have 47 million of Jays shares to sell. However there is no reason to assume that these have not already been sold. From the day that JB left as a director he was no longer required to report any sales he may have been making (or buying for that matter). The same is equally true of Brian Hall, Keith Phair and any other former directors that are no longer on the AEX Board.

One word of caution John - whilst Helium is a very hot topic at present this is Tanzania and as you are more than aware the wheels turn slowly in Tanzania and the Administration will certainly want their "pound of flesh" from H1 - or more appropriately their pounds and pounds of pounds...

H1 haven't even drilled yet and using AEX as a yardstick, it took AEX over eight years to get from drilling to production at Kiliwani North. And with no income in the interim..... I leave you to draw your own conclusions.

John if you are looking to buy more Helium directly through the IPO the oversubscription would not affect the price that you buy them but simply the quantity that you are likely to receive. If however you are buying in the market post IPO then yes an oversubscription is likely to mean they enter the market at a premium but for how long that premium is likely to be sustained would be a moot point.

Good luck in any event.

"British" is not a "race" it is a "nationality"......

At the time the MC reached £250m the market was expecting the "back to back" drills you referred to edgar and, moreover, at that time AEX had cash in the bank and an income (albeit one that was about to dry up) from Kiliwani - consequently the expectation was for AEX to progress with their 75% intact. Events that have occurred since now make that £250m market cap look somewhat "frothy"; though that is not to say that with a bunch of rainbow chasers and short term traders we won't see a similar market cap at the time of CH1 but I do not see that MC being sustainable longer term. Not until we are producing and have a sustainable income from Ntorya. Though if we have a number of drills between now and then (as I fully expect) then there will be more spikes. Also on Kiliwani developments and a possible JV.

is that a question of their being "more sophisticated" or simply that, as a group, US investors have more capital to plough into higher risk areas?

But as the risk of the Ntorya drill is totally and absolutely inseparable from the risk of the Chikumbi drill the risk of them both is the same is it not?! That is, the risk of the drill failing for technical reasons? (which was what was being discussed)

Oh and Tanzania - it is surely pocket money to the Omani's? And after all Tanzania they have acquired the license at such a ridiculously discounted price that it effectively subsidises the cost and the risk of all subsequent development.....

Anyway gents sorry but I have to log off now - back tomorrow I hope. And let's hope to some material news eh? :0)

Yes BG , so what? I said it is deeper than NT1 and NT2 and it is - hence the added risk. What they are targeting is hardly relevant is it? What are you suggesting? That they might decide to stop half way down?

If they get the drill stuck at 3,400m or that Jurassic gas pressure blows out the drill it will still compromise the Ntorya target won't it?

I would not say that with ARA onboard it is hugely derisked - it was simply that when AEX were in "control" the risks would have been increased! With APT now the operator they are as they would be for the majority...

MAX there is a retort a number of your points below but I will choose to let it ride other than for one; "CH-1 is unsuccessful - impossible". Yes there is gas down there but EVERY drill comes with risk even if that is purely a technical one - just turn your mind back to NT2. I have been in a number of stocks whose COS of success on a drill was sky high only to find that the drill got stuck in the bore or they couldn't control the gas pressures or they encountered water before reaching the target zone etc, etc.

CH1 is a deep drill - deeper than the previous NT1 and NT2 drills and that comes with additional risks. I hope and believe that APT are more than up to the task but you cannot totally mitigate the risk of failure.

Nonsense.

"startup"?! 4D has been listed for over 6 years!

I would agree with that Robbie and that may well be exactly the reason that we have heard nothing so far; there is little point putting out an RNS that says something like "we will give you a spud date once we have identified and contracted with a Drill provider....". Rather that they identify that drill and contractor and then give us the spud date. Do they not also need to get the TPDC to approve the drill date / programme? If so, then that too would be sensible to complete before putting out that RNS methinks.

After all what is another few weeks - and, if the sp keeps drifting, allows time for people to fund another top up at a knock down price... ;0)

Miton is a major shareholder only via Miton funds - it is the funds that hold shares in AAOG and hence any rise in sp would reflect only in the underlying fund value.

BG, that battle was long since lost. We have been heading in that direction ever since they bought 30% of AEX. Not only do the Zubairs now have all the assets but they also now have total control.

Good that we have legal expertise within the company, I think - JV partners, unpaid invoices, tax issues, contracts, Nyuni / Kiliwani license issues etc lots to do when we have the money to do it....

Dear oh dear, below £1, I never thought I would see that again :-(
Looks like Voleon Capital had it right after all.....? More downside from here I suspect after breaking below a major support level? Can any of you chartists opine? What should we now be looking at as the "floor"?

Disappointing but, hopefully, temporary. The question is when to buy more? Surely good value at 99p but then they looked good value at 1.68, 1.50, 1.35 and 1.10 all of which were prices I added at.

You "imagine" BG... ? Imagine away BG but I choose NOT to take anything for granted - it has proven to be the most appropriate position over the last 3 - 4 years certainly and maybe longer where AEX are concerned.