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The £35m of credit that AEX has hypothecated for Ntorya development has no bearing on the MC of AEX the two things are unrelated - the development budget is fully committed and may not have a return for any known timescale and no guarantee of that...

I'd not seen those green boxes before it is so long since I had filtered anyone - probably only done that twice before in about 10 plus years! It takes an awful lot of provocation but unfortunately Mr Zengah has managed it...!

About 80% of all posts!!

Just put Zengah on filter. It is like the blessed relief felt when putting on ear defenders in a factory! :0)

Licences maybe Florida but no income - how to devlope those other licences without never ending dilution?

It was always the intention of the previous Board that they would negotiate a cut down version of the Nyuni license and merge it with Kiliwani - this would include the Nyuni Inshore areas and exclude the Deep Water areas that AEX have no capability or intention of developing and bring Nyuni inshore under the existing GSA for Kiliwani. Then to farm out the future income streams of the Kiliwani South Drill to a contractor that would use floating drill rigs. But that of course was when AEX still had enough cash to keep the lights on - we are now no longer in that position and as vike highlights cannot pay the overheads beyond mid 2021.

Some remedial action required not on KN1 but on AEX itself.

I understand the prospective merits of a tie up with WEN but actually think we will arrange something with the Zubairs that will further transfer shareholder value away from PI's and towards our cornerstone investor. How cheap that 29.9% now looks eh? 4 Years later and now with 50% of Ntorya license for a pittance and an AEX board stuffed with their own stooges.

"The Ramping has subdued" Certainly true stopthebs - 90% of that evaporated with Zengah's exit from the BB and presumably from the stock too....

"and i'm pretty sure a lot is going on in the back ground"

Yes well excuse me BG but I won't be putting too much store on that; I seem to recall you also thought that behind the scenes AEX/APT would be working on getting the Seismic and Drilling contracts sorted out to enable a drill in Q1 2021, working with the TPDC to get remediation work started on KN1 and invoices paid.

However as I have said many times before when there is no news on any given topic it is senseless to assume that "something is going on in the background". AEX has proven time and time again that more often than not there is nothing going on in the back ground and even when the Board say there is, nothing actually happens....

Blind faith is rarely justified in any event and certainly not when it comes down to AEX and their dealings with the TPDC and the Tanzanian Administration. I am surprised that you haven't come to same conclusion - or is your statement more in hope than expectation? If not it certainly should be.

edgar, even if you were to assume that the invoices ware paid it hardly constitutes solving our Kiliwani issues; IF and it is a big IF we have the cashflow to remediate KN1 with minimal expenditure it relies upon the production of KN1 returning to previous levels which is far from likely (15% COS according to previous Board) but, even if so we then have to drill Kiliwani South and build a pipeline to plug the gas into SS GPP before w have meaningful cash flow. This will require capital well beyond our immediate capability and will probably take 3 -5 years - even with the TPDC signing off on the work programme.

This will therefore require a JV partner as already articulated by RA - indeed we need one just to keep the lights on let alone drilling Kiliwani Soth.

So how is that any different from the position that has existed for the last three years BG, and what difference has it ever made to the progress or otherwise of that situation? So what reason can you point to suggest that the "stalemate" has changed to any meaningful degree whatsoever?

The art here for AEX Highyield is "operating" capital - an income stream or cash on the balance sheet; SCIR have none of either so there is no way that they are a target surely?

We will simply have to agree to differ grsshaw.

It cannot be denied that we would be in a better bargaining position for any ongoing arrangement if CH1 had been drilled in Q1 2021 and our MC was £100m plus.....

I have made my opinion known and I am not going to continue to argue the toss....

"Value" is too indeterminate in my view - hence the reason that it is rarely, if ever, reflected in the MC; and that would be the difficulty and hence why "value" is typically a conversation about relative MC. The MC is the market's perception of ER at any point in time.

Of course it is relevant - if say we are negotiating a merger, the terms of that merger, perhaps 1:1 share swap versus 1:5 share swap will be calculated based upon the relevant MC of the relevant entities at the time of the merger. Otherwise we effectively be giving away more of the ownership of the future assets and income streams going forward.

I do not think this is a question of boom or bust - I do not see a "bust" scenario coming down the line. The issue here to my mind is the extent of the "boom" and the timing of it? To prevent the "bust" we need a JV of some description and that will require a trade off of shareholders assets in return for capital or income. That negotiation will determine, to a very large extent, the upside here for AEX shareholders. How much of that upside will we have to give away to prevent that "bust"? Hence the impact on AEX sp and bargaining position of deferring the CH1 drill. A successful drill in Q1 2021 would have made a dramatic impact on AEX MC and hence our relative value in any JV /Merger negotiations. Whose hands does this play into? APT's?

I think this deferment in CH1 drill prefaces yet another transfer of value from AEX shareholders to APT / Zubairs either directly or indirectly

Consequently until this becomes clearer I cannot see many people taking the risk of investing here.

63p

How on earth can you assume that the F/O has anything whatsoever to do with issues relating to Kiliwani and Nyuni ? What possible relevance has the F/O to the TPDC approving the Kiliwani work programme or paying outstanding invoices? Hence you still haven't justified why you believe that completion of these issues is imminent.

Yes, it might be relevant to completing a JV - if and only if the value of 25% is being included as part of any negotiations - hence the reason that completing CH1 drill would have assisted with that negotiation and a Q1 2022 drill is not helpful in tat regard.

Yes Maverick long term it may well be a multibagger but your traders and rainbow chasers won't be jumping in until they can see the catalysts for a short term sp rise and there are no obvious signs of that in the short term....

PoC I think you are being grossly optimistic; whilst all of your points are possibilities they are by no means certainties and with no indication of timing.... when they look likely or the timescales known the price might factor them in - until then it is nothing but pure speculation.

Oh and apologies RoC for being so flippant in my earlier post - thanks for the education.

Just to point out that it was also at that same time that RA also told us that he would be disappointed if AEX didn't spud in Q1 2021; there is absolutely no reason to think his opinion about the payment of the invoices will be any more accurate - hasn't even been able to "update shareholders" on the matter over the course of the last 9 months. Did the meeting ever take place? If so, what happened?