Member Info for CrustyPete

LOL yes PoC and look at the date of the RNS! February 2020 - and yet you are confident that this will happen anytime soon? Or not? As I have said several times only in the last few days, I certainly hope it does happen as it will provide us with a lifeline but I won't be holding my breath.

Would you want to be the "official" that tells Magafuli or one of his henchmen that you have just doled out $7.6m to some Johnny foreigner?!

Well Frank at least you can take solace that your guess was considerably closer than those of all the "rose tinted spactacle brigade" eh? ;0)

PoC you state "The Tanz government have accepted and recognise they owe AEX $7.6m. So I expect this to be expedited.."

So what can you point to validate your assertion that they have accepted and recognise they owe $7.6m and, even if that is he case why haven't they paid it at any point in the last 2 years? Or are you just making it up?

Encourage buying? Really? Oh well let's hope you are right. I on the other hand, like most others, will be waiting until we have clarity on funding and cash flows and are somewhat closer to the CH1 spud. Maybe this time in 2021....

Whose interpretation of Buys and Sells are you relying on PoC? If the LSE's forget it, they are never more than an approximation and an unreliable one at that.

It seems the time that "any weakness is mopped up" has yet to arrive Maverick?

You said that at 0.80p Maverick ;0)

I think he largely departed after his first pump and dump; his second failed miserably...

No BG, I noted that too; hence why, when people continually referred to his "quote" on the subject I made mention of the fact that he hadn't been expecting umpteen extensions to the backstop when he said it..... Moreover that in the intervening period it was also unrealistic to expect AEX/APT to be cementing arrangements for Seismics and Drilling when they couldn't possibly know if or when the F/O would get approved.

Nyuni / Kiiwani versus Ntorya? Do you really think that these are of material interest to ARA ? The ROCE of these is unproven at best, still has a lot of issues to sort out, will require development capital and based on KN1 experience might be more time, effort and money than it is worth. I really do not think that ARA are likely to be making a decisions based upon the "value" now or in the future of Nyuni/Kiliwani. It will probably take just as long to get Kiliwani North into production as it will Ntorya.... The only advantage that Kili has over Ntorya is a "GSA" but one which the TPDC are not honouring as the invoice issues illustrate.

I have no beef at all with the idea of spending money on remediating KN1 and have been advocating for that for an eternity - but it cannot be argued that nothing has moved on this for about three years - why, oh why, do you think that is likely to change anytime soon? The first step in that process is paying or overdue invoices - I cannot see the TPDC rushing to the front of the queue for that, can you? I desperately hope I am wrong as I see it as our short term salvation if so.

And yes HM I have no argument with your suggestion though still need to emphasise that whatever we get from WEN (or anyone else for that matter) today WILL undoubtedly result in a dilution of PI value either immediately (share or asset dilution) or at some future date (share of income) - it is absolutely unavoidable....

As edgar has suggested far better that we dilute our Nyuni/ Kiliwani interests to raise "funding" but for a variety of reasons I do not see that as being particularly attractive to a third party - there is too much risk in it and no guarantee of a compelling ROCE. Different altogether if we manage to successfully remediate KN1 but I am sceptical about that for a variety of historic reasons, all long since aired on this board.

Sorry but I now really must sign off - have arrived at my meeting now.

I have at no point suggested that I or anyone would be expecting AEX to give anything "on the cheap", simply that it would be done on a "quid pro quo" basis and therefore a hypothetical funding arrangement of, say £10m, would require £10m of value to pass the other way - at present the only thing that we have that has any significant value would be £10m of shares or £10m of Ntorya "equity". And purely as a result of the fact that YET AGAIN we will be going to the "market" when we are desperate for cash and have not in a great bargaining position. Compare that with the situation had we been able to do so post a CH1 drill......

I hope you are right in your assertion that AEX is not in a desperate situation but I beg to differ on your statement "as it as their interest is our interest". Surely it is in their interest for AEX to go to the wall? Then they receive AEX's 25% for free and the $35m of carry that they are currently due to pay on behalf of AEX shareholders they would then benefit no-one but themselves....

Anyway sorry gents but I have to sign off now - out for the remainder of the day. See you all tomorrow.

GLA

grsshaw - all relevant questions and I don't have answers and in any case it is all total speculation. One thing is true - no-one gets something for nothing and a capital raise will cost us all in one way, shape or form...

BG it wouldn't be the Zubairs that would be receiving the money. It would be AEX receiving their money to pursue Kiliwani dev etc. Yes the Zubairs would have to agree to having WEN (or anyone else) as JV partners but why would they have an issue with it?

It would be great if the Zubairs bailed us out yet again but how can they unless in the form of a loan...? They cannot take more than 30% stake without making a move for T/O. Will they do that? I doubt it but at least it would put us all out of our misery!

Traders Fantom? - but you were talking about next year's recovery "I think this will mark a line in the sand to next year’s recovery"; surely traders are not interested in next years recovery? That would be far too long term for them? So your comments were designed for the traders then? That is, simply a short term pump and dump?

Okay so long as that is understood; I would not want to confuse your comments with anything that resembles a comment on the company itself or investors prospects then?

No CP that is "God" ;0)

That is a perfectly reasonable suggestion HM, though the finessing of the trade off between AEX and WEN shares would be key I think and whether WEN shareholders would be happy to give up all or part of their 8% dividend? As surely that dividend would be ploughed back into development and covering AEX overhead? Ultimately though any deal would have to be a "quid pro quo", there is no such thing as a "free lunch". If AEX are to jump into bed with their "sugar daddy" they will have to offer something in return - whatever that is will equate to a dilution in AEX shareholder value.....

Fantom, you say "Amid all the doom and gloom I think this will mark a line in the sand to next year’s recovery and no better a price on which to pile on board.".

So you do not see any form of significant dilution occurring between now and Q1 2022 then?

grsshaw - I refer you to my most recent post and the likely "cost of delay". That being a sizeable dilution....

I agree to a point about the valuation but to conflate the F/O receipts with enterprise value is overly simplistic and just wrong. But now anyone looking to invest in AEX will be asking the question how much will my holding be worth after AEX has to go, yet again, to the market for a "hand out"? If WEN, for example, are being asked to put their hand in their pocket for £10m to develop Kiliwani and Nyuni inshore, how much are they going to ask for in return? 12.5% of Ntorya?! £10m in shares? Either way round we as PI's lose 40-50% of our bloody assets!

Until that question has been answered no-one will be confident of jumping in here, in my view. And how long will the TPDC give us to sort out Kiliwani before withdrawing our license?

Hence my posts yesterday underlining the importance of getting our unpaid invoice issue settled with the TPDC. That, at least will buy us time.

The biggest downside for me from this delay is the issues it raises with cash flow; any form of dilution after the CH1 drill would have been largely mitigated by a significant increase in MC. Without the MC lift even a small capital raise or JV will have a disproportionate impact. A £10m raise with a £200m MC is inconsequential but when it represent almost 50% of your ER it is a big issue. Anyone out there fancy a 50% dilution?

Furthermore I do NOT believe that it was necessary to delay the CH1 drill whilst awaiting the seismics and that causes me to be very cynical about the Zubair's motives for implementing what would otherwise be a totally unnecessary delay.... mmm?

Firstly grsshaw it is arguable whether the F/O is worth $35m - if we were to receive $35m in cash then maybe but we are NOT we are due to receive the benefit of $35m of expenditure over an extended period, which devalues it considerably. It could be argued that it is worth nothing as we already know that it is being spent - therefore the "value" of that committed expenditure only relates to what we receive back as a consequence of spending it!! We won't know that until after FFD and /or production.... the value of the assets is the key here and until we monetise them we do not know what that will be.

As for our other assets Nyuni /Kiliwani they are "underwater" at present - we will need to spend a lot of money on them before that results in any sort of roce - money that we do not have - hence it could be argued that they currently have a negative value; we have obligations (currently unspecified until the TPDC agree a license extension and work programme) to develope the resource but with no guarantee of a return.

Fantom the two years of license delays wasn't AEX specific. The same malaise and continual delay was experienced by everyone, large and small - there hadn't been a license extension for about three years until the Ruvuma extension. That isn't indicative of a definitive "plan" it is just random, incoherent chaos - what is the explanation for everyone else? Oh yes, of course, they have had to wait for little ol' aminex to get their license extension?

No Fantom there is no logic to these delays I am afraid, it is simply an equation of corruption, self aggrandisement, and total incompetence...