Member Info for CrustyPete

That might be hibernation not a doze Scrambler!

Me too. I would be buying more at these levels but the cupboard is now bare :-(

Exactly HAM... pretty much what I have been saying all along.

I am pretty sure that APT will be our "saviour" yet again - at least that is the spin that will be put on it - but at what cost? It won't be "interest" alone, that I will wager.

And BG I am sorry but I would beg to differ. $1m $1.2m is not minimal - particularly when you don't have a dime in your pocket. Especially when you have are not in a position to no negotiate and with the clock running down.... Even if we do get a partner or funding to complete the remediation it certainly won't be providing us with income before we run out of capital to "keep the lights on".

So essentially BG you have absolutely no idea of how much the perforation will cost and yet are comfortable stating, as a fact, that it will be a "minimal" sum? You even state that AEX themselves have not quoted a figure and yet whilst you are "just a laymen" still make the statement that the cost will be "minimal". So that assertion is totally baseless then?

I have a fairly good idea of what it is likely to cost as indicated below. I don't think that cost is "minimal" and am 100% certain that AEX cannot currently fund it; and are looking at the cash running out by mid 2021.

So yes BG " it could of course all fall into place with one wave of RA's magic wand" but I actually think there is still quite a lot of work to do before we ever get into a position to effect any KN1 remediation plan.

Very briefly Terrier; we have been under 100p fairly consistently now for three weeks plus.... I have been buying at under 100p throughout that period Terrier so have experienced it at first hand.

I fully understand that this is "the plan" BG BUT what you continually fail to understand or acknowledge is that to do anything at all they need the capital to complete it; they currently do not have the proverbial pot to pi55 in.

You keep bleating on about "Minimal cost" BG - so please be specific - how much will this plan cost? Or are you just guessing? How much cash do AEX have in the bank? Simply saying "minimal cost" without having any evidence or even any idea of what this will cost is a totally meaningless and hollow statement. What is "minimal" BG? Come on - enlighten us with your knowledge.

Based on my past experience of similar scenarios I suggest that to re-enter the well and re-perforate lower zones will cost circa $1.0 - $1.2m so unless the TPDC are about to hand out our unpaid invoices or until we have a partner to fund this we will not be doing this any time soon. Moreover and, just to remind you, this is NOT guaranteed to succeed..... so where are AEX going to find a potential partner that is prepared to risk front loading that cost without guarantee of something in return?

It is Terrier for the umpteenth time and therefore there is a risk that it will eventually fall below the 90p support level and, if so, where will the next support level be? That gap fill that all and sundry have been banging on about for weeks might be realised....

This shouldn't happen because of the link to Nasdaq / SPAC but it has to be said that there is little upward momentum here and before long that lack of momentum will become a problem. Those days above £1.50 and even £1.00 seem a long while ago now.

IMO of course.

;0)

As, when and if they have the money BG.... oh and then the necessary approvals..... oh and then there is the issue of the invoices. And all before the money runs out in May.

I agree BG it could of course all fall into place with one wave of RA's magic wand - let's hope we all wake up on some magical, rose tinted, parallel universe tomorrow where such things happen to order and the Tanzanian Authorities have experienced an epiphany.

I remain hopeful BG but not expectant.

And equally PoC the TPDC need confidence that AEX have the capability, both technical and financial, to complete any work programme and that it will have a reasonable chance of success - and that does NOT mean throwing a few £10k at the Foam "gamble", which is about as much as it is, with only a 10 -20% chance of success..... what is the "Plan B" and where is the money coming from to complete it?

I don't think that will wash; the KN1 resources are minimal and the drill is failing (has failed), there is no guarantee of successful remediation (indeed very limited COS) and AEX will need 3D seismics before submitting a work programme to the TPDC for approval for KNS. And all this belore May/June 2021? There is also the thorny issue of resolving the outstanding invoice issues - 2P reserves require not only a GSA and approved work programme but also the likelihood of successfull payment for the gas you extract! ;0)

Indeed 2C gas "resources", excuse me. A 2C resource becomes a 2P reserves only once they can be extracted and that requires a GSA and work programme. Without these reserves cannot be monetised.

But unfortunately PoC they do not yet have 2P gas reserves; they are currently only 2C gas reserves and they will have to wait a long time yet before 2C becomes 2P - not least of which would include the need for FFD work programme signed off and a GSA in place. I guess you are going to tell me next that we will have both of those before May/Jun 2021!

Yes, and so few empty green boxes too..... Is it safe to take off the ear defenders?!

Morning all.

Welcome back pyjamaboy.

So one or two observations.
the $250,000 was a comment relating to remediation through the use of compression; that subsequently proved to be gross miscalculation; due to the scale of the issue (geographic area and pressure required0 the equipment required would have costs many times more.

Oh and CP I think any respect that RA was given has already evaporated with his now vacuous assertion that he would be disappointed if we didn;t drill in Q1 2021. It is already evident that either he just plays to his audience or that he hasn't really got a grasp of the situation that he now finds himself in..... did he really think they would get the Farm-Out approval in time to get that Q1 spud? I am not sure which answer is the worse. Is he stupid or a liar? Actually I think he recognises that there is only one set of shareholders that he needs to appease and that isn't us PI's. It won't be long before we gift yet more of our value to APT I am sure.

Busy today one and all so let's hope for a good day and maybe the start of that Santa Bounce!

So just one or two comments on Kiliwani, Northern - firstly as we all know AEX have no cash, so anything other than the strategy to use foam to remove the water and deal with water ingress is far too expensive and this "Foam" strategy has a only 10 -20% chance of success. Moreover even to do this we need the TPDC to sign off on the work programme which to date they have failed to do.

Any more than that we need to we need to create the Plan B strategy, get the TPDC to agree to it and then raise the capital to pay for it.

It is also my firm view that none of this will happen until and unless we resolve the issue of the unpaid invoices and this is the singe biggest reason that nothing has happened on Kiliwani for circa well over two years now.

I think it unlikely to be of much interest to anyone vike without the work programme signed off and clarity of who is to fund and build the pipeline into SS GPP. So I won't be holding my breath.

Good night all and I wish you a wonderful weekend.

sorry " AEX have $35m of carry...." should have read " AEX have $35m of carry that this $35m should be directly reflected in the MC"

What I am saying grsshaw is that there is no direct correlation between the MC / SP and the "carry" and nor, for that matter, is there any between the MC of AEX and SCIR; It is wrong to infer that just because AEX have $35m of carry because the value of that "carry" has yet to be realised. It is equally wrong to compare AEX and SCIR MC not least because of the speculation/expectation that SCIR will be selling their stake before CH1 and not partaking in either the CH1 drill or future income streams. Hence their perceived value is more about the likely sale value (discounted) and not about future value of the underlying asset.

I would agree that the $15m "premium" between them is undoubtedly a combination of the $35m carry that AEX has and the perceived future value of the Ntorya asset but I believe far more of the later simply because the "carry" ensures that AEX are inextricably linked to eventual development and income. All heavily discounted for many factors not least, in my view, is the likely dilution of those assets to raise funding and the usual factors such as drill risk, political risk (GSA?), time to market etc all of which I am sure you are aware of. The closer we get to resolving or reducing those factors and monetising the assets the more the sp will rise to reflect it.

I am sure these will come but, after over 10 years as a shareholder here, recognise that these things can never assured and the timescales even less so.

It is a hell of a waste don't you think? Zengah probably generates enough energy banging away on his keyboard (ooh err!) to power a small city! ;0)