Member Info for CrustyPete

I wish you had said something at the time matherdj - many might have chosen to do similarly had you broadcast that information.....

But that is the point that Dunder was making BG. That if they were always intent on drilling after seismics that was never a realistic option; even if the F/O had occurred six months earlier.

But I agree - all academic now.

Or maybe it was simply very useful for APT to allow him to go "to market" with that statement as a means to disseminate disinformation without RA being knowingly disingenuous.....?

As I have said a few times before in relation to the timing of the CH1 spud date and the continued delays in the F/O approval. He either knew that the Q1 2021 Spud date was unachievable or he was ridiculously naive in expecting the TPDC and Tanzanian Administration to approve in time to enable that date to be achieved. Similar here with the seismics methinks.

Gullible or disingenuous? Either way he doesn't exactly inspire confidence. Add to that the strong suspicion that he is simply a Zubair stooge and why or why should AEX shareholders trust him one iota?

Anyway, one and all, as I may not be back to the BB again before January, I will take this opportunity to wish you all a wonderful Xmas and New Year.

GLA

I would not contest that it might be the right thing to do - I am simply saying that it was not part of the original game plan and therefore not considered by RA when talking about the timing of the then Q1 2021 drill.

Whether it is the right thing to do is now totally irrelevant anyway it is a done deal - we now have a target spud date of Q1 2022. The only relevant questions now are whether that spud date gets put out yet further by a delay in the April License extension and how AEX funds itself between now and that eventual spud date.

Matherdj, personally I do not agree with your statement "RA was happy to go on video and give a BS target knowing seismic would be required first.". I believe it was his expectation that CH1 drill would be initiated without the need for additional seismics - as was the expectation of the previous CEO. The current policy is a change of approach in my view and maybe a tactic to delay the drill and thereby put the other JV partners on "the spot". Leverage, perhaps, to get more of the assets transferred to them from the existing shareholders (AEX and SCIR) at a knock down price....

Matherdj, "as always planned"? that was not as "as planned" by the previous board that I can guarantee.

The MM's can take it anyway they like John confident in the knowledge that no-one will take advantage of these prices. Why buy today when you are more than likely to be able to buy yet cheaper at any point over the next 3-4 months?

Keep your money in your pocket John - patience is a virtue, so they say.

Similar bl - though I am just watching the endless, empty green boxes.... ;0)

You mean the 1 BUY that has been filled? all £9k of it? Whoopee!

You still haven't explained MD how a measly cash payment is going to bring about a significant rise in sp and MC? Even if we get that RNS that you speak of and a $390k payment how does that translate into a 100% sp and MC rise....? Grasping at straws MD?

Agreed Starbuck; I am sure that there will be a lot of PR and possibly one or two RNS's before the date of the official NASDAQ launch.... The selection of that launch date will not have been an accident. Though it may well be they are keeping one or two headline grabbing RNS's until after the launch date as we all know what can happen to an sp on NASDAQ with a good RNS ;0)

That'll be the "kiss of death " then CP! ;0)

No they don't charge explicit transaction fees because they run their own "spread". In effect like an FX broker that receives one price but charges you another....

Colinski, I fear your suggestion that "all that crap about them working on acceleration so as to be ready to go once farm out was signed." was nothing more than wishful thinking on the part of the rose tinted spectacle brigade. Without a Farm Out there was no spud date and without that there was little if anything that could be agreed definitively.... without and until a farm-out was a done deal who was going to pay for anything? There was no more cash in the AEX kitty and APT had advanced all that was due on the F/O.

They have the support of the TPDC? They certainly once upon a a time had that support I would not be totally sure that the situation is unchanged....

Let's hope for a positive outcome in any event.

BG do you not think that the very act of AEX writing off the Nyuni Licence from the balance sheet might, in itself, be indicative of their own expectations of getting that approval and maybe thereby, in turn, their confidence in getting a Nyuni JV and Funding partner?

I absolutely agree with your question - how do they get that approval? I am not sure and it must be in significant doubt until and unless they can point to the answer. But that is absolutely NO reason to assume that they have that answer!

Reducing the size of the License to only include "inshore" areas, incorporating it with Kiliwani and thereby the GSA would mean that they have a greater chance of getting a JV partner as future Kiliwani revenues could be used as part of any combined future work programme / approval.

But still a lot of work to do I suggest.

Okay, so firstly BG, back in July 2019 AEX would still have had some cash "in the bank", were expecting to receive $5 from APT post F/O approval, were not expecting to have to pay $2m in CGT and had not then written off either the Nyuni License and resource from the balance sheet nor given up on TPDC invoice payment. They may also have had reasonable expectation of remediating KN1 and seen some income flows....? So I suggest that they may have had good reason to believe that they could have at least been seen to begin a work programme even if that was initiation of a seismic programme. They might also have had reasonable expectation of being able to offer something to the kitty for their then JV partner(s).

In that intervening 18 month period the cash position and, in my view, negotiating position have both dwindled significantly. The only counterpoint is the Ntorya F/O approval but of course with the need for another License extension to circumvent and at least another 12 months until CH1 drill.

I would not argue that they may well have had a JV in mind at that time - Indeed how many times have I stated that it was always the previous Board's intention to a) merge the Nyuni and Kiliwani Licences to leverage the KN GSA and 2) Farm Out the drilling of KNS to a JV for a share on future income streams? Many, many times is the answer and am not about to change that statement now BUT a lot has happened in the intervening period and I cannot believe that any negotiations, or indeed terms, that may have been in play then will still be relevant today; in a similar way to those earlier conversations regarding Drill & Seismic Contractors, Compression or other KN remediation strategies. They have all been superseded by subsequent events.

We now have barely enough cash reserves to keep the lights on, only our "Jewel in the Crown" to negotiate with, on an asset needing a license extension from April and only 6 months to sort it all out....

BG they engaged in that application many many, moons ago; are you suggesting that they simply stop the process?! Let the License lapse?

So PoC you have answered your own question. Any "unspent" cash from the Ntorya development budget is returned only from revenues; hence not for a few years yet.

When I say re-invest I mean adding more, averaging down, call it what you will. I have not sold any - however, I have sold SCIR.

I disagree on the spud date connection; well if RA is true to his word anyway. We need a JV partner for development of Nyuni and Kiliwani whilst, I suspect, leveraging our Ntorya asset to get it - that to me is more dependent on yet another License extension than on a spud date as any spud date will, itself, be totally contingent on that license extension. That is why I suggested a few days ago that I would not be re-investing for 4-6 months or once the funding/dilution has been sorted out (whichever comes first); that being the period necessary to get clarity on the license extension and hence, in my view, the funding too. It is of course also the period after which we run out of cash.

It would be fantastic if we can get a JV without leveraging our Ntorya asset and using the Nyuni/Kiliwani licences as the carrot but with so much there yet to sort out (Nyuni license extension,KN1 work programme approval, outstanding invoices etc) I think that will be extremely difficult and unlikely. Indeed the asset value of the Nyuni License has been totally written off in the balance sheet so that is hardly much of a negotiating point is it?