Member Info for CrustyPete

AA you say " maybe a farm out or part sale" what the hell are they if not a "capital raise" for crying out loud? We end up with cash but we have a reduced asset as a consequence. That IS a dilution; a dilution of our asset! Shareholders previously had 25% of Ntorya now they have 20% - a reduction of value.

Oh and look again at the SP movement AA - the price rose on the back of the F/O approval BUT then started and inexorable slide over a month later when the delay of the CH1 was announced and yet you suggest that the two things are not linked? Who are you kidding?

All totally possible BF, the point being that it is all totally up in the air and with at least 12 months to go until CH1 spud why oh why would anyone take the risk of pumping money in today? Better to wait until it becomes clear, I suggest. Oh "but then they will miss out on the upside" I hear you cry. Maybe but how many times have people pumped money in here only to be let down by failed promises and interminable delays? Endless times is the answer. The BOD no longer have any credibility.

Oh and by the way BF a Farm-Out still involves dilution even if it doesn't involve issuing additional shares. We might not be giving away shares but we would be giving away future income or a stake in the asset - all of which reduce current or future shareholder value and thereby reduce the return on any investment.

"I find that difficult to get my head around." Really?! It is very simple.
1) That "value" is only crystalised when the income from the 25% of Ntorya is converted into income or sold
2) The next significant sp catalyst is still 12 months away
3) We have insufficient cash in the bank to keep the lights on and therefore risk that shareholders will not "live" to see either of the above
4) To guarantee getting us through to production will require us raising capital and that will come at a cost which may destroy much of that "value"

I hope that helps.

I think Aaron Le Blanc was being seconded to APT to assist with Ntorya - let's face it there is bugger all for him to do at AEX.....

I would happily agree that the acreage has potential - that is the only reason that I invested in the first place. Will the Zubairs honour their commitment to the Farm-Out? Yes I am sure they will but as Dunder says, they will look after themselves first and have absolutely no obligations to AEX shareholders and if AEX were to go bust before 2022 APT would "inherit" our 25% for nothing before the CH1 drill - now they would be rubbing their hands in glee at that prospect methinks.

What are the AEX Board going to do to keep the lights on between now and then? So far they have singularly failed to find us a benevolent JV partner to pay our bills and their most recent statement alludes to the suggestion that in order to do so they would have had to dilute shareholders to an intolerable level. So without a JV partner how are they paying the bills?

What ever happened to Robert Ambrose's claim that we would soon be seeing our outstanding invoices being paid....? Oh sorry, yes I forgot, another thing that he absolutely no control over.....

Pessimism Tanzania? No, just realism Tanz, a position that I have long held but one which the, former, rose tinted spectacle brigade are only now learning to accept and understand; stark realisation that their blind faith and optimism in a succession of boards and members to lead them to the promised land was grossly misplaced. Many of them now having left the scene like rats deserting a sinking ship; a ship that they themselves steered onto the rocks.

I would agree and accept that I missed a trick in not getting out at the time of the Farm-Out approval and kick myself for not doing so and having the faith of my convictions. But now, at these prices, it is hardly worth worrying about - I can only hope that the Gods choose to smile on us all and that through some freak of fate and a fair wind we might get out of this with our shirts intact.

When will the penny drop Tanzania, Robert Ambrose never had any control over the timing of the bloody drill?! AEX haven't been in control of anything for years and even less so since their only source of income dried up. The serial delays in the F/O approval made it virtually impossible to achieve the Q1 2021 target and the decision by APT to promote 3D seismics ahead of drilling was the final death knell - neither of these things was of Robert Ambrose's doing. The bigger question was if or when he recognised that the Q1 target was no longer achievable and why it took until the Farm-Out approval for him to finally admit or announce it? Actually, no, there is no question at all - the answer is that he has only ever been an APT stooge since the day he joined and has never represented or operated in the interests of shareholders - except of course our cornerstone investor and largest shareholder; the Zubair family. But then Tanzania, in that respect, he is no different than any of our previous Board members, CEO's and Chairmen since 2016 when BH an his henchmen first took the Zubair's shilling.

Bottom drawer investment now - I just hope we will still be a listed company by the time we get to 2022; if so, we might actually get our original investment back. In the meantime don't expect too much by way of information; no news will be good news.

"delusion" is the word BG....

It means that they can eke out our meagre existence for a little longer but that is hardly a statement of confidence is it?! How on earth are we likely to arrange some form of joint venture relationship with a strategic development partner along the lines of that previously alluded to with an executive team of three people?

It could be suggested that this further tightening of our belt is simply indicative of their realisation that they are no different to previous boards in that they are in control of nothing and cannot deliver on their "promises"..... If there were not a need to have a board of minimum size would we even have three Board members? How many people does it take to deliver nothing at all?

Maybe because it has become obvious that we will not get that Nasdaq listing complete in January? People moving out short term?

A risky strategy but commonplace; short termism rules. They will be back after the EGM notification or announcement of shareholder approval.

Yes, maybe "complete" in mid January - subject to Shareholder approval....? Otherwise I would suggest that target date has already been missed?

So as I said a few days ago on this board and as Moses has opined below, I believe we are looking at Mid February.

If an EGM is required to enable shareholders to vote you have to give them a minimum notice period, which I believe is 21 days plus a minimum of day either side to allow for postage (unless agreement has previously been sought and given by shareholders to reduce the standard notice period).

You and me both Apache.....

Maybe, I stress maybe - since until the merger is complete if the share price of 4D goes up on AIM you could still buy it via LOAC at the equivalent of 1.29 or even lower (dependent on LOAC price of course); effectively arbitrage between the two markets.

Conversely the same may also be true in reverse....

"new base" yes and maybe the new ceiling too....

They no longer need a short term fund raise after the "merger" with LOAC and a JV for Blautix might well ensure that they have no need of one going forward.... The NASDAQ listing will also give them a deep well of potential new money for future raises if ever it is required.

Now there's a surprise....

It is only a question of time before we get that news; a Blautix partner would be fantastic in many respects not least, of course, the SP. The key piece of news in my view and the most likely of the short term "targets" to be revealed in my view. Wouldn't it would be great to see that before the official Nasdaq launch.....?

"You may find that WEN farmin to Kiliwani North/South and Nyuni PSA."

And we may find that they don't.