Member Info for CrustyPete

No I do not think that 4 -5 p is even closely realistic pre-spud; 1.90 - 2.00p at best pre spud in my view.. and that assumes that we won't have been forced into a "dilution" before the spud date.

The share price only reached just above 2p in the three / four month run up to the NT2 spud and back then there were fewer shares in issue, we held 75% of the asset, had cash in the bank, income from Nyuni and were looking forward to a back - back drill. Yes, since then the size of the reserve has been upgraded but certainly not enough to offset the negative impact of the other factors.

If you have bothered to read any of my recent posts MD you will have noted that I changed from a HOLD to a BUY only a couple of week ago and have recently bought 1.2 million to add to my existing 10+million.

Unlike you though I don't feel the need to make baseless, specious, self interested comments about short term sp movements to support my position.

Oh really?! Not if there is yet another 3m SELL waiting in the wings...

Keep up the ramp MD ;0)

I would suggest that without this facility it would be difficult to arbitrage between markets - the shares of the two markets would not be fungible. This mechanism ensures that there can never be a significant price disparity between AIM and NASDAQ shares.

So BG now all AEX need is some money. Oh and the little question of the TPDC approving the work programme of course. So nothing anytime soon then.

No doubt the AEX Board are about to wave a magic wand will and announce a JV with a third party or some innovative financing arrangement - oh and without any dilution to shareholders.

Here's hoping but I, for one, won't be holding my breath.

Upside on the sale? Perhaps, but will the market perceive a paltry $20m (if that is what they get) a better asset than the 25% of Ntorya that they will be giving up? Cash on the balance sheet rarely gets translated into the equivalent in MC and, as you say cash that will only get spent on alternative assets with a different risk and income profile; there is no guarantee that shareholders will be any better off. They will simply end up converting one asset, Ntorya into a second unidentifiable asset with unknown potential.

The only way that cash will translate into pound for pound benefit for shareholders is if the sale proceeds are distributed 1:1 as dividends and there is about a zero chance of that....

I agree with you, they would be better off awaiting the CH1 spud and then, maybe, production.

That's both intriguing and interesting CP, thanks for that. I had failed to see that brokers note but, to be frank I am happier to be out than in to SCIR and that brokers note just about seals it.... bearing in mind these notes are usually overly optimistic the prognosis in the brokers note is unlikely to fill many with too much confidence. Moreover, as you well know I am not confident that 25% actually equates to $20m but I wont bother poring over that old chestnut yet again.

GLA

"that the small Feb rise has gone ..."

Yes stonefold that is why I referred to is "a short term rise in SCIR sp".

As regards the confidence of a future funder to the future value of the project, yes you are probably correct but only once the License Extension has been confirmed in my view. Alternatively the longer the clock ticks the more likely it is that SCIR will have to fund their obligations for the costs of Seismics and (possibly, though unlikely on my view) drill. As such there is the considerable risk of dilution of one sort or anther and so confidence may not be equally strong in Scirocco as AEX. Scirocco shareholders may have to wait all the way to the Spud for that uplift, or for the confirmation of the sale such is the uncertainty around the sale of 25% or the funding for their JV obligations. The market does not like uncertainty.

For AEX that uncertainty pertains to the necessary cash flow to cover overheads prior to Spud; and even thereafter before Ntorya production.

There is no longer any correlation between them because the market is expecting to see SCIR make a sale of Ntorya 25% pre CH1 spud - indeed there has already been a short term rise in SCIR sp on the back of it (in February?). If you are buying for the CH1 spud and beyond there is little point buying SCIR.

Moreover this rise is not based on any obvious, fundamental change in circumstances or situation so it difficult to see a read across to Scirocco.

My comments are not aimed at you BG..

Were APT considering the timing of the drill a priority when they decided to complete 3D seismics before CH1 spud and thereby cause the drill to be delayed by 12 months (from Q1 2021 to Q1 2022)? Did they consider under promising and over delivering when that choice was made? Did they consider RA's assertion to AEX shareholders that he "would be disappointed if CH1 didn't Spud in Q1 2021"?

No, of course not and they would not hesitate to delay it again if it was in their best interest and you think that they give two bloody hoots about over delivering? Laughable.

And to the original point BG do you think that APT will bring forward the drill just to appease the shareholders?! Even if 30% of those shareholders are themselves? NO is the answer - If it is in the APT's and the Zubairs interest to drill in July 2022 we will be waiting until July 2022.

CH1 will be drilled when APT good and ready and not before - they are not interested in the opinions of irrelevant shareholders like you and me and certainly won't bring forward the drill to appease them; any suggestion that they will is simply ludicrous.

APT will do whatsoever suits them without any regard whatsoever for AEX shareholders. They are not in the popularity game...

So f&c you really think that APT will be the slightest bit concerned about "under promising and over delivering" to AEX shareholders?

You seem to forget that AEX no longer has any control or influence on anything that happens at Ntorya.....

The short term nature of the sp rise was totally predictable (it happened innumerable times last year) and it will not be the last time that this happen before Q4..... Can you risk trading it though? Personally, I can't be bothered but I am sure that many will try; though they will likely as not wait to see the pattern repeated, jump in on the 3rd or 4th occasion and then find that they picked the "real" move.

Good luck all.

We ought to be seeing the "snapback" as they are closing....

"Looking towards breaking 1p today"

Dream on...

If only BG, if only. Happy that I bought few more recently though :-)

And I suspect that there will still be plenty of time to buy yet more....

Morning Matherdj.

I couldn't agree more with your commnet about "formality". Moreover you say " 'APT is in the process of awarding the initial contracts for the new high-resolution 3D seismic."

There is that overly used phrase "...in the process of..." AEX has often made similar statements which have in retrospect meant nothing more than that they were reviewing possible providers - nothing has ever been signed, no commitment made, no dates agreed - discussions at best.

BG you say "and as we've said before the license renewal seems no more than a formality".... Well it has never been a formality previously so to believe that anything will be different on this occasion defies the lessons of history. Moreover if we haven't had official confirmation of extension before the end of April it might depress the sp until we receive it.

We also await confirmation of the means by which AEX will manage to keep the lights on between now and Q1 2022.

So I would suggest that no-one starts to "count their chickens".

That said, you may note that I have changed from a Hold to a Buy. This is not meant (and never has been) as a "recommendation" but only a reflection of my own position - I have been buying AEX again in recent weeks - I have picked up another 1.2 million shares at an average of 0.412.