Member Info for CrustyPete

Plus BG you still seem to have missed one crucial point; the offshore gas is bloody expensive to produce - the TPDC certainly won't be buying that at Kiliwani prices of US$3.00 per mmbtu; even at Orca's US$8.00 per mmbtu.....Why oh why would they be using really expensive gas to fuel their Domestic economy via the onshore pipeline when they have bucket loads of very cheap gas already onshore?

Are you suggesting that they won't be getting a share of the offshore profits in any event?

In any event I cannot believe that many or even any of existing shareholders will still be invested in any meaningful form by the time LNG starts to earn a material income. One and a bit decades is more than enough; some will be lucky to still be alive ;0)

Not just assumed BG but stated.....

Nothing is set in stone (especially in Tanzania) BG but historically it was always assumed that Offshore gas would supply the export market linking the offshore fields directly to coastal and offshore LNG plants and thereby reducing the infrastructure (particularly pipeline) costs ands and otpimising the margins on the otherwise very expensive gas assets. Conversely the onshore gas, which can be produced very inexpensively was destined to be used onshore utilising Tanzanian onshore infrastructure thereby turbocharging the development of Tanzania's own domestic industries and future economic development. There are no current plan to link onshore pipeline to putative LNG plants.

Or indeed the 28th! ;0)

Good luck and a good weekend to you all. Bye for now.

It seems the 30th April could be quite a pivotal day!

Well we should find out how much cash we have at bank and how long we can last without a dilution or further funding when we get the Figures at the end of April.

Oh really boom.boom we seem to be going round in circles here - as we discussed only yesterday I strongly disagree with your assertion that we are better off to day than we were in 2017.... To repeat some of my post of yesterday.

there has been material dilution, we have zero cash to keep the lights on, we now own only 33% of our previous holding, the 6 drill programme will take, what 2 -3 years? With production forecast for 2024 and in the intervening period we have zero income; we cannot survive until 2024 without liquidity. The only way we can avoid a dilution or weakening of the balance sheet through additional lending is if the TPDC choose to pay us what we are owed on our invoices and it is questionable if that would be sufficient to get us to 2024. Kiliwani needs investment and we have no capital to invest and whilst we might get a JV partner there is no such things as a "free lunch".

In view of the above I cannot see how anyone could claim that we are possibly in a better position than we were pre NT2 spud and hence I see absolutely no reason to think that the sp will perform any better now than it did then.

I could go on but frankly life is too short. You have an opinion but it is certainly not a fact.

I would not argue too much with the argument about where we will get on the sp prior to spud my view is that 2.5p would be a little optimistic but if we were to get there I would be very happy.

And I wish you well sharehead as I do all AEX shareholders :0)

Indeed a flow of news may influence the sp but how many of those news points will be "price sensitive" and how many rises on the back of them will be maintained? A flow of sp spikes that get sold into by the traders and the "nervous". Very few if any will last longer term until the proximity of the Spud is such that investors will adjudge that they may not have another opportunity to get back in at a lower price point.

Hello Jetty, nice to hear from you again :0)

Yes the market is never "perfect" and examples of aberrations are commonplace. However I believe there are far more examples of companies being undervalued than there are of those being over valued and 88E is a massive aberration.... compare 88E with WEN. I would read nothing whatsoever into 88E's experience.

Will the sp have a massive run up over 2p ahead of Spud? Maybe yes, anything and everything is possible. Will I be expecting it? Absolutely not.

"Re-rate had begun" ? Re-rate had largely happened, in my view....

Only time will tell.

I disagree sharehead, in fact your analysis would go someway to support what I have been saying for a couple of days now. Pre NT2 drill the sp was pretty steady at circa 2p for several months prior to the spud. In October 2020 we were expecting a spud in Jan 2021 and I would have anticipated that 1.5 - 2p share price being maintained until the drill bit actually hit the ground, not least because, as was proven in October 2020, until it does you cannot guarantee that it won't be delayed. No -one will believe it is going to happen until the rig actually appears at the drill site and the TPDC sign it off for use.....

There is so much that needs to happen in the next 9 months before we can be confident that the Q1 2022 date will definitely be hit and if you had been an AEX shareholder for any length of time at all you would be more than aware of all the things that could get in the way.

Hi Tim.

It would appear that, at least in part, you have answered your own question with the quote that you have reposted. yes, of course to some extent the location and potentially the timing of the CH1 drill will be contingent on the outcome of the 3D seismics but, from what I understand, it will simply be "tinkering" with the details and will not change things fundamentally. Moreover I understand that in "principle" and as intimated above there was no compelling need for additional seismics before drilling CH1 but that as further information was needed for the longer term drill programme it was considered a belt and braces approach. Hence I do not think that seismic results will dramatically influence CH1 drill plans.

What might influence the date pof the CH1 spud is. of course, the License Extension. Let's hope we do not have the same nonsense as we have previously experienced in getting that extension. Not least because it may adversely influence the sp in the meantime if we have not got official confirmation of the extension beyond end of April. The further risk to the timing would be getting the work programme approved by the TPDC in advance of the drill date - all the "mood music" has been positive but we know that in Tanzania you cannot rely 100% on anything.

In addition to the above I would be amazed if they do not allow more than sufficient time between gathering and analysing the seismic data and the spud to ensure they do not compromise the spud date; assuming that they have the license extension, that the work programme is signed off by that time they will have a commitment to a drill and spud date with the contracting party.

AEX were entitled to $5m of cash in addition to the $35m of "carry". This they have already received. Any further drawdown on the $35m for the costs of seismics and long lead items for the drill etc will inevitably come from that $35m pot.

AS has been mentioned many times before Premier Miton Group are Investment Managers and the share price performance of PM Group is largely dictated by the value of funds under management that they control. It is NOT Premier Miton Group that ultimately invest in AAOG or any other underlying investment but the end investors in the Funds and Investment Trusts that PM Group manage. It is those underlying funds that benefit from any rise in the value of the investments (such as AAOG) and not PM Group except insofar as that if the value of the Funds rises the earnings from those funds rises and that way PM Group benefit. However the value of those funds is (with the exception of Investments Trusts where other, additional factors apply) totally based on the collective value of the underlying investments; that means that if the value of the underlying investments rise, so too does the value of the Fund itself. It is self evident that the "value" of AAOG has NOT risen and therefore any rise in the value of the Funds owning AAOG will only have risen IF other holdings have risen too. It has nothing whatsoever to do with what might happen to those investments in the future but purely what they are worth today.

Me too, very happy indeed :o)

Yes BG but at the time of the NT2 spud the back to back drills of NT2 and NT3 and EPS were also then thought to be "fully funded" through existing cash reserves and Kiliwani income; moreover the excitement about the NT2 well was the expectation of finding dramatically increased reserves (circa 800 BCF) - which is what drove the post spud rise. The only thing really in play for CH1 is the Jurassic play (and Oil) - will that result in a 4-5 fold increase in Ntorya reserves? Maybe but I doubt there is the scope for such a rise. I do expect the post spud rise to be a good one BUT and sorry to belabour the point, the sole purpose of my post was to explain why I do NOT think we will see a rise pre spud that will exceed what we saw pre NT2 - i.e. circa 2p.

I may be wrong and hope I am but suggestions of 4 - 5p pre spud seem grossly optimistic in my view. Only time will tell.

GLA.

Sorry to finish....

"that was essentially the question that was being asked...."

No boom.boom the asset has not been upgraded 4-5 fold only 3 fold, there has been material dilution, we have zero cash to keep the lights on, we now own only 33% of our previous holding, the 6 drill programme will take, what 2 -3 years? with production forecast for 2024 and in the intervening period we have zero income; we cannot survive until 2024 without liquidity. The only way we can avoid a dilution or weakening of the balance sheet through additional lending is if the TPDC choose to pay us what we are owed on our invoices and it is questionable if that would be sufficient to get us to 2024. Kiliwani needs investment and we have no capital to invest and whilst we might get a JV partner there is no such things as a "free lunch".

In view of the above I cannot see how anyone could claim that we are possibly in a better position than we were pre NT2 spud and hence I see absolutely no reason to think that the sp will perform any better now than it did then.

And that was essentailly the q

No I do not think that 4 -5 p is even closely realistic pre-spud; 1.90 - 2.00p at best pre spud in my view.. and that assumes that we won't have been forced into a "dilution" before the spud date.

The share price only reached just above 2p in the three / four month run up to the NT2 spud and back then there were fewer shares in issue, we held 75% of the asset, had cash in the bank, income from Nyuni and were looking forward to a back - back drill. Yes, since then the size of the reserve has been upgraded but certainly not enough to offset the negative impact of the other factors.