Member Info for CrustyPete

ARA (Zubairs) have spent circa £26m on their sub 30%. It will cost them another $140m on the development of Ntorya FFD before production begins, after which they will then have to give AEX circa 25% of the proceeds every year thereafter at what rate? $10m per annum minimum.

If AEX go bust it will still cost ARA £140m on the development of Ntorya but the difference is that they will get to keep all of AEX's 25% of future revenue @ $10m per annum minimum.

Oh I hear you say but ARA will lose out on their 30% of AEX!! Wow fecking wee - $10+ million a year years to come versus sub 30% of a Nyuni / Kiliwani asset that is currently totally dormant, no capital to bring it back into production, likely a very poor return on capital in any event, no immediate prospect of developing KN2 (it will require a pipeline) and all of that subject to TPDC work programme approval.

Some may say that looks like a "no-brainer".....

5.0p or 0.5p? Which will come sooner?

Quelle surprise.....

Maybe December even....

I wouldn't put it like that BG, no. Simply that making a Centralised Policy decision and translating that into action on the ground are not the same thing and it can be quite a while before one leads to the other....

"ARA has moved swiftly to seek approval of a work program and budget to acquire a 400 sq km 3D survey...."

And as we have received no notification that the necessary approval has been received it is reasonable to assume, therefore, that nothing has yet started.

Similar for License Extension methinks?

I would agree ICB, payment of the outstanding invoices would be the single biggest indication of a change of "mindset" from the Tanzanian authorities and would also allay any short term cash considerations for AEX and shareholders.

If we were to see that I would definitely change my view from Hold to Buy. Until then I will stand by my "proof of the pudding...." viewpoint.

I would totally agree PoC , as I stated only earlier today....

"This must mean a lot of other things have been agreed" there you go again PoC, as BG says, "wishful thinking".....

Just as likely that the Govt approval was required before anything else could to be agreed... at least officially.

Don't count your chickens..... ;0)

I would agree in principal though the practical realities might militate against it; an RNS is expensive and we have no money, so unless the "news" is market sensitive and requires an official announcement the company might be better advised to wait until they have something more material to say - along the lines of pre drill work items. Until and unless there is positive movement on these items there is little value in wasting money on an RNS methinks.

An interview maybe?

But would APT "allow" it?

Yes indeed, some tangible progress at last! As boom.boom says, let's hope that translates into an official license extension and then some progress on pre drill work items.

All of £30k's worth.....

Sorry for the typos.

Edgar, I actually agree with you. Invest in the basis of today's circumstances but it would be negligant to ignore the lessons of yhe pasr. And that is a contributor that yhe "Johnny come lateleys" are neither willing nor choose to consider. I am simply highlighting that omission.

At the time of NT2 drill we had a market cap of circa £250 million Tanzania , cash on the balance sheet, plenty of time on the license, plans for a back to back well and Kiliwani income. That was the time to raise capital; at a time when he were still holding some of the cards..... but no, we waited until we had no cards left to play and no meaningful negotiating position. Well done BH.

And why have I recently bought more - because at 0.35 - 0.40p (when I bought more) I believed they offered good value. Will we ever again see the 7+p that we had at the time of the NT2 drill?

The deal was a terrible deal Tanzania, that is why I opposed it.... as it happens it was the only deal because the likes of BH had managed us into a dissasterous position. It was an offer we could not refuse.

And for your informarion I am not totally negative. Just as I have done for the last 4 /5 years I simply choose to offer a more realistic and down to earth version of AEX's prospects based on experince and past performance.

An approach which has proven to be a damn site more realistic than those of the rose tinted spectacle brigade over that same period Tanz.... including yours, Drewky's and countless others.

We will get a good payday one day I am sure Tanzania but unlike some I am not about to count my chickens, which I am sure is an approach that any open minded reader of this BB over recent months and years will agree is a sensible policy.

Keep dreaming Tanzania, I hope you live long enough to enjoy the benefits of your wait.

The facts?

We have no cash, no indication of when and how we will get cash, no official notification of our license extension, no activity that we are aware of, no meaningful shareholder update for months and now publication of the accounts being deferred twice.....

More positives now than ever? Laughable.

"There are more positives now than ever."

Blimey, you must therefore be even more of a "Johnny come lately" than I gave you credit for..... you obviously won't remember the days when we had $millions of cash, were producing gas from Kiliwani, were the operator of Ntorya with a 75% holding, were awaiting sign off on the 25 year development plan, etc, etc....

Unfortunately shareholder value has been eroded, bit by bit, ever since.

"........it was about being at the vanguard of a new branch of medicine."

Couldn't agree more NMW, me too. Though I originally invested 5 years ago before "taking a bath" and deciding to cut and run. This is my second involvement at an average, now, of about 75p after continued periodic additions (bought a few more this morning).

"Sounds crusty and stale to me..."

That will come as no surprise to anyone, after all PoC it really doesn't suit your agenda does it?