Member Info for CrustyPete

So PoC are you still telling us all that we will complete the Seismic survey before the end of September/mid October? That now we have a new President we will get the seismic approvals very soon? How soon is soon PoC? We have already been waiting 6 weeks since you were pumping that line. Naive optimism or disingenuous self interest? Whatever it was it has been proven to be total fantasy.

Are you still wearing those rose tinted spectacles PoC?

Time to get real....

I haven't got a clue what you are wittering on about Tanz...? What is more difficult? Accepting that Hoagy Carmichael didnt write "accentuate the positive"...

And for what it is worth Tanz I am backing AEX with about £200k and 11 million shares. The difference between you and me is simply that I recognise that Tanxania is a bloody difficult place to operate as has been proven over the decades; unlike you I do not blindly accept that a change in President is the cure all for all our ills. Nursing this patient back to full health won't happen overnight.

Do you think the ignoramus means "supper"?

A mindless moron and illiterate to boot.....

Anyway since when was Hoagey Carmichael considered to be an expert on Aminex or Tanzania?!? ;-)

Moreover he lost his shirt in the 1929 Stock Market collapse, so maybe we shouldn't put too much store on anything he says?

Moreover I think you will find that "Accentuate the Positive" was written by Johnny Mercer.

Not if it has been boiled.....

"Biggest mistake I have ever made is not selling at 152p." That's a mistake?!

I have bought shares within the last 12 months above that price and some , over 6 years ago, at nearly £10.00!! Now that is what you might call a mistake....

That said my average now sits at £0.71p and I am in for the long haul. Indeed I will be buying here and there as cash flow and other sales allow to increase my long term stake.

Semantics BG that's all. I am still given to believe that any changes will not be significant. Though of course were that be the case it would certainly put a premium on getting the 3D's completed sooner rather than later.

If the drill site moves significantly they may well need to build a new road into the site....

Yep, broadly agree with that BG, though that would still give them some wiggle room unless the drill site had to be moved by some considerable distance (which I doubt). I am given to believe that the 3D would simply be about "fine tuning" the drill site rather than dictating a wholesale change of approach.

There are no reported short positions in 4D Pharma, you mean? They are only reported once they exceed 0.5%.

But I do agree that the focus on the supposed "shorting" of 4D is over blown; if there were news or significant buying interest the "shorters" would have no significant influence. Continually pointing at the short selling as the reason for the current sp malaise is a convenient smoke screen. If the sp were perceived aby the market s being as cheap as many on this board continually claim then there ought to be sufficient buying interest to more than compensate for the level of short selling that some claim to be so evident.

To my mind that evidence is minimal.

Just before I go let me restate - I DO believe things will improve under the current administration. I just don't believe that it will happen as quickly as others seem to suggest. There are a host of structural, inherited inhibitors that need to be overcome before they can implement a new "blueprint"

Sorry, second *complexity should have read "sensitivity".

Bye bye for now; I am off out for the day - work unfortunately :-(

The Government has demonstrated a different approach to a totally different industry, in a totally different position and which, for a multitude of reasons is not comparable; one that differs in scale, complexity, strategic importance and complexity.

I would further point out that HE1 has been operating in Tanzania for something approaching two years and has been receiving the same "favoured" treatment since long before the change of administration. This further underlines that the difference in the approach is the industry and the factors surrounding it that enables the difference in the approach and not necessarily the administration that is exercising it. And I have already explained the multitide of reasons why I think that is the case.

However you are correct, ICB I am not at all surprised that you choose to adopt your preferred line.

Sorry; all in my view of course ;0)

HE1 are not an Oil and Gas company but a Helium company, the first in the country and a relatively small one at that; are not hampered or affected by the potential size of the sector, the number and size of potential "players", the political history, existing arrangements, strategic mistakes and the structural red tape borne of over 2 decades of corruption and ineptitude. If the Oil and Gas industry was starting with a clean sheet of paper things might be a lot different but the reality is otherwise. Moreover the scale of the two industries is incomparable - helium industry is small, new and not strategically important as the catalyst and foundation of decades of Tanzanian industrial growth. Hence the scale and importance of decisions are nowhere near as complex nor politically sensitive. To attempt to compare the two is grossly simplistic in my view and ignores material and obvious differences.

The treatment of HE1 may be an indication of the direction of travel but, as I keep saying, things will take quite a time to turn around for the O&G industry for reasons explained above.

I too remain optimistic that will happen Tanzania but unlike the rose tinted spectacle brigade I do not expect to see the benefits of that change "overnight". Let's face it, some of those more optimistic expectations have already been proven to be totally fanciful.... "Wall of news" and "seismics being completed by the end of September" already look ridiculous; hype and self interest only.

BG made good case for seismic programme starting in September and that now looks more and more likely to me.

I remain open to the idea of things changing for the better with the new regime but still believe it sensible not to count any chickens; the proof of the pudding still stands to be in the eating.

"1.0 Waiting on Gov approval for the 3D seismic."

But surely not CP, PoC told us that there was absolutely no reason for the Tanzanian authorities to withhold approval? That with the need to complete the 3D seismics within the weather window we would surely see the approvals very soon. Lol!!

"2.0 They have met the TPDC several times in the last few weeks and discussions are ongoing with both parties apparently agreeing it needs to be resolved quickly."

We have heard that same refrain countless times in RNS's and AGM's over the least decade - it has long lost any semblance of credibility.

It would be commercially sensitive because any debt creates a liability on the balance sheet. As the money is drawn down the "value" of the company declines....

Not necessarily material but important hence the sensitivity.

Well just because you think it does not mean it will happen - as has already been proven with the lack of approvals to date. Logic and common sense plays no part in Tanzanian Politics and anyone that historically has relied upon it will has more often than not been made to look somewhat daft - including many of the current and former posters on this board; me included.

"weather is a factor"

Yes, as I said earlier, if given total freedom of choice you would time your seismics to coincide with the "weather window" but we have already missed the opportunity for a Q2 start and Q3 is passing quickly. So what do APT do if they don't get their approvals in time to complete the seismics in that "weather window"? That window is shrinking by the day.

Well thankfully, if push came to shove, they could kick it off in the rainy season or, defer until the next weather window that begins in late Dec 2021 and still complete it in time for a Q3 Spud date.

But enough is enough.

Bye bye and good luck all.

They would need to complete it before getting a CPR for any re-evaluation of the underlying resources. And bear in mind that this includes areas never previously surveyed, they have done nothing at all previously focusing on the Lower Jurassic targets - and no 3D at all.....