Member Info for CrustyPete

"Can only make the value of Aminex go up" - so there you go again PoC making a fact out of an opinion..... "3D will help with defining the volumes" maybe so, but there is absolutely NOT true to say that it will therefore make the value of either the gas or the MC go up; in fact it is absolute nonsense.

The only place that is true is in your head!

Totally delusional.

"Majors are returning under the new president " - really PoC where is your evidence for that? There has been a lot of hot air and some positive noises but no material movement in anything, least of all from "majors" - they are all sitting on their hands and waiting to see whether the Govt's words are replicated in actions. I would agree that there may well be a lot of investment in Tanzania in O&G projects over time but these things will NOT happen overnight.

If's, buts and maybe really don't cut it PoC. Your fanciful predictions and expectations have already been proven to be grossly optimistic as they have been based on "best case" assumptions none of which , to date, have been borne out in reality; yet you still paddle that same rose tinted canoe.

There is no suggestion that AEX are remotely minded to selling either the Company or the assets and, in any event, APT are the controller of the Ntorya license and would ensure that they are the only buyers. The Nyuni and Kiliwan assets are small by comparison with Ntorya, will take a lot of capital investment to re-energise (we have none) and some way off ever being able to provide a material income; it won't be easy to find a JV partner for that asset (as has already been proven) let alone a buyer!

Keep dreaming PoC ;0)

BG you say "then at some stage there will be a tip(p)ing point".

I would not argue that point but I just think it is some way away yet - one swallow doesn't make a summer; we need a succession of positive news items and proximity to the CH1 spud before any sp rises will be sustained. Moreover there is no guarantee that all of those news items will be +ve.

"Lots of naive posts "

Yes indeed, never a truer word spoken PoC. Just look in the mirror.

As I have said before only time will tell who is right and who is not - so far PoC your track record speaks for itself. Doh!

IF you actually believe your own claptrap (highly unlikely) prepare yourself for disappointment.

Resource figures have risen exponentially over the years and yet never once have those increments (sometimes not %ages but multiples) made a lasting positive impression on the sp (indeed the sp has has sometimes fallen back because the rise did not meet market expectations which had been grossly inflated by fanciful hyperbole ); to expect anything different this time would be totally unrealistic and belie the lessons of history.

So, one final time; even if there is a large increase in resource figures (which is far from guaranteed) I see absolutely no reason to think that the sp will respond with a significant or, more importantly lasting rise on the back of it.

Hoorah, some sense of realism....

Oh and as for the Oil - yes there may well be Oil shows but the real question will be is Oil there in commercial quantities and then, how and when are APT going to get the Oil to market? There is currently no Oil infrastructure, no Oil equivalent of a GSA/ PSA . It is likely to be many years away before they can monetise any Oil shows - by which time Oil may well be about as "toxic" as Novichok and the price mean it isn't worth extracting?

That said it ought to push up the AEX share price for a while until reality sets in.

We already have contingent resources of over 3 Trillion Bcf for goodness sake and yet a MC of £22m - how much do you really think the Seismics are likely to "move the dial"....? On that basis another 1 Trillion BCF would move the sp by about 0.2p Lol!! Besides which, we would need a CPR to officially change the figures.

NO, in reality the principal benefit and purpose of the Seismics is not likely to be the contingent resources, is to better assess the basin for drilling and planning purposes; if there is a material increase in resources as a consequence that will simply be a bonus and it would have to be a vast increase in numbers to materially affect the sp, in my view. This is a possibility of course but not to be relied upon.

There are potentially still 12 months plus until CH1 spud GL, I cant see there being any significant "momentum" here for quite a while yet. Initiate the seismic programme and then what? Go to into hibernation until the spring....?

But what about the "wall of news" I hear them cry..?!?!

IF we were to get news of the invoices being paid and a JV for Kiliwani remediation (without significant dilution and erosion of shareholder value) then maybe we could see an sp rise actually maintained and it reach another support level. Even that presupposes we get them both before the turn of the year and in very close proximity to one another; but that is a very big ask and highly unlikely in my view and, if not, how many other news items will be enough to maintain more than a temporary sp rise?

"Amazed sp is still low." And I am amazed that you think that initiating the Seismic programme let alone just getting "approval" will actually make any significant difference to the sp (other than a short term spike perhaps).

Approval by the end of September PoC? I thought we were going to get the results by then?!

APT

TDPC vike.

I would tend to agree BG but yet again we differ on the likely timescales; there is no immediate imperative for that gas and whether or not we get our invoices paid or get a JV partner at any time in the next 6 - 12 months will not affect that equation one iota. AEX is now a sideshow to the main event - APT is the driver here and Ntorya the focus. That will supply all that they require.

We might BG and we might not - indeed we might hear that we are NOT going to get paid on our outstanding invoices and that we have tried and failed to get a JV partner for Nyuni / Kiliwani or that the proposed work programme has not received necessary approvals. So to anticipate either is just non-sensical.....

Here we go again with the "wall of news" hyperbole.....

So the ONLY (material) piece of news that we can confidently predict receiving before Christmas would be completion of the Seismic activity and the consequent analysis. And even that isn't guaranteed to do anything but create yet another sp spike on the back of the news.

All else is simply "noise" and will have absolutely zero long term impact on the sp.

But as matherdj said yesterday perhaps the expectation is that if you state something often enough, eventually people will start to believe it...?

What happened to getting Seismic results before the end of September PoC? Your wall of news "theory" has about as much validity....

There will still be some that tell us we should be expecting the results in Q3.... LOL!! I will be happy of we get the "approvals" in that time frame.

"gap"?! Lol - good effort MavD but no banana.

Why hurry Tanzania there is another 12 months until the drill; there will be plenty more opportunities to buy between now and then.

I note some saying that they thought there would never again be an opportunity to buy cheaper - well they would only have had to wait 24 hours for the next one.

Some criticise me for relying on the lessons of history and not looking forward but AEX has always spiked on news, unless material, and I suspect that will continue to be the case until at least CH1 spud date is announced.

Yesterday's news was both positive and encouraging in equal measure but not material - many here had been suggesting that we did not even need formal notification of the license extension and that APT would continue with long lead items without it. Well, now we have proof that we did.

Thankfully we now have it.

3p?

By about June/July 2022 perhaps.