Member Info for CrustyPete

sorry Tanzania that should have read ".....Tanz that* everybody is entitled to their opinion".

Well it goes without saying Tanz but everybody is entitled to their opinion. My view is that there is very limited "trading" in AEX, indeed to be blunt and despite whatever the "chartists" would have you believe there has been minimal trading or volume of any description in AEX for some considerable time; hence the principle reason that the sp is anchored where it is. No-one is buying Tanzania.

I would tend to agree CP and of course, today, the buyer would at least have some reasonable expectation of production within a specified timescale; that was never a realistic lieklihood in 2018 for the "buyers" of AEX 50% and hence the reason that there weren't any. With the possibility of there being some "competition" for SCIR's 25% maybe the Zubair family will pay "up" for it? Then again, with total control of the license and as the Operator probably not! ;0)

Tanzania, as I have suggested many times before, any sp rise for AEX will only be maintained once any news being released by the company is tangible and material. So far we have seen nothing that qualifies as either. Until we see something that resembles "price sensitive" news these short term spikes will prevail..... material news is still, potentially, many months away. We may be lucky and get our invoices paid, or see our reserves increased on Seismic results, or see some movement on Kiliwani, each of which either individually or collectively may justify a small, sustained rise - but then again we may not; moreover we could be well waiting well into 2022 before they do, so no-one is going to be betting heavily on any of those things happening, the risk reward ratio just doesn't stack up; "it may or may not happen and even if it does the sp will just tick up a bit"?

In my view the only thing that may significantly change this equation is the sale of SCIR 25% for a significant sum - a sum significantly greater than the pro rata equivalent received by AEX for their 50%. For SCIR shareholders' (and indeed AEX's too) sake I sincerely hope they do but, yet again, I cannot see too many people buying into AEX today on that expectation. Will they be missing out? We can only hope so.

So most onlookers will be on their sitting hands and waiting for the "main event"...... The only thing worth betting on here is the drill - yes you may (I stress may) be paying twice as much come next June / July (if any or all of the above happens) but why take that punt now? You could easily be buying these at the same price in Q1/Q2 2022 as they are today.

FOMO?! I don't think so.

"Wentworth seem to get paid. So why not Aminex."

Wentworth have "leverage" - they are actually producing some gas... AEX were getting paid whilst they were a producer.

"cronies"? Blimey if I had cronies that caused such issues I would change them! ;0)

You certainly are "special".....

Yes indeed absolutely right PoC my mistake, in too much of a hurry! - that should have read - "resources" become "reserves" but the underlying logic still applies.

And you are half correct PoC, the Scirrocco half year report states (as you yourself quote) " seismic acquisition and drilling programmes are expected to offer a significant value catalyst". That is "the seismic and drilling programmes" collectively are expected to add as "a significant value catalyst". If the seismics were expected to offer significant value catalyst on their own they would have said "act as significant value catalysts" - plural.... seismics only add value when taken collectively with drilling programmes. Which supports my view that on their own they will not have a sustained impact on the MC - I hope to be wrong, but past performance would suggest otherwise.

Must dash one and all - off out for the evening. I wish you all a lovely weekend.

Then we will have to agree to differ BG. I would agree it could be marginal but we do not know how the current well has been left. But do remember that our share of the outstanding payment is not great (less than $3m) and we have outstanding loans etc plus overhead - that is not going to take us through to Ntorya production and re-perforate KN1 is it? Would the Board risk spending that limited cash on KN1 remediation - after all re-perforation is not guaranteed to succeed nor even production levels predicted with any confidence. Hence I think a JV partner would be required - or at the very least preferred.

Anyway BG, all speculation. Sorry but off out now to try to find some fuel before going out for the evening.... plenty in France - should have stayed there!

Afternoon all.

Well I am back from my, all too short, holiday and am glad to see that we have received some positive news regarding Seismic production and a pretty reasonable half year report. Only a pity that we did not see the somewhat overblown sp rises that many here had anticipated on the back of that news. Nor even the chart predictions of those that put store in such things had been predicting - maybe next time eh?

Only material, price sensitive news will create a sustained rise in this sp and neither the start of Seismics nor the half year results were ever going to qualify as "material". To my mind there are only three material events that we can reasonably look forward to that will qualify as material (Paid invoices, JV for KN1 remediation / production {we do not have sufficient cash even with Invoice payment to go it alone} and CH1 spud) and only one of those has a target date on it (CH1 drill).

Some say that the Seismic results will result in a huge increase in estimated reserves and accordingly a large rise in the sp but I do not believe that will be the case; after all, we already have massive reserves and yet our MC is miniscule by comparison. So even if we get a significant increase in estimated reserves that is only likely to impact the sp once we get a GSA in place and the establishment of a direct route to market. "Reserves" become "resources".

I would agree that payment of invoices could indeed take us over 1p but largely because it would be the single biggest indication of the re-establishment of a working relationship between APT/AEX and the Tanzanian Authorities and I, personally, believe that is the biggest positive indicator; it offers positive evidence of a return to a healthy investment and O&G environment in the country. The mood music sounds good according to the half yearly results but I still won't be counting my chickens on those invoices being paid any time in 2021.

Edgar, just one thing to remind you of - our GSA for Kiliwani is at a (nearly)fixed price; the "variable"element is very small, so the world gas price would have a very small benefit on our incomes from KN1. Moreover I still believe that even with our invoices being paid we would still need a JV partner to complete the remediation of KN1. You may also be interested to know that our previous board also concluded that they would not remediate KN1 without receiving the payment of the outstanding invoices and also that, in their opinion, remediation (other than through the very cheap but low COS of the foam strategy) was not worth the cost - the ROI was marginal. Better to use the money (with a JV partner) on progressing KN2 after a restructuring / combining of the Kiliwani and Nyuni (inshore only) licences.

Good luck all.

Looks as if the buyer has gone out to lunch....

A good summary Kempey.... I have very similar views and experience. Too greedy at 7.5p - I had set my limit to top slice at 8.00p which we just missed on the intra day spread. Though if we had actually seen that "back to back drill" as had then been anticipated I am sure we would have seen that 10p that you were aiming at.

That said if I had taken profits at 7p+ I am pretty sure that I would have only reinvested them again on the way down and doubt I would have an average much different to the one I have now.

Anyway must dash. See you all again in a couple of weeks.

GLA

"Just a suggestion sell up, move on and move to Crypto - XRP and XLM could well make you your money."

If its all the same to you I won't be taking your advice MavD - not based on your recent performance and transparency ;0)

I am off on Holiday for two weeks now, so likely to miss all the excitement. Doh!

GLA

I certainly hope that is the case BG..... fingers crossed! ;-)

The glass half empty brigade will have been on the higher side of that equation for about the last 5 years methinks BG ;0)

You may well of course be right MaverickD, after all time is passing and end of September is nearly upon us, so if you keep saying the same thing endlessly you will surely be right eventually.

However don't count your chickens MD, your similar optimism of two weeks ago proved totally unfounded; let's just hope that the same is not true on this occasion.

Most often it is from Asset / Fund Managers; lending stock, particularly in highly illiquid stocks can be quite profitable. It can be used by a Fund Manager to increase (marginally) their Fund performance.

Moreover CFD brokers and spread betting Co's can run large long or short positions since they only have to hedge their "net" position in the market.....

Yes indeed Blue, he still has over 17million shares and who knows how many he wants to unload.

Like many others I took his forced selling and the resultant sp slide as an opportunity to top up (limited budget unfortunately). Perhaps he reached his limit price and is now looking for the likes of me and others to drag the price back up to the high 80's before he looks to unload another 1%....?

Yes indeed Edgar and the figure for contingent reserves will be very different from the estimated recoverable reserves and the value of that, of course, on what we get paid for that gas; which will depend on the terms of the GSA and that, in turn, on who builds and owns the pipeline - amongst other things.

And as the current Wentworth price indicates whatever that value it does not necessarily translate into the market cap.

But hey, whatever the figure it surely will be a lot more than it is now ;-)

Well I cannot claim to be anything but disappointed because this is the fist time that I have been underwater for well over a year now. The only upside is that I can for the first time since early August 2020 actually look to lower my average.....

Every cloud has a silver lining eh? :-(