Member Info for CrustyPete

Yes indeed Blue, he still has over 17million shares and who knows how many he wants to unload.

Like many others I took his forced selling and the resultant sp slide as an opportunity to top up (limited budget unfortunately). Perhaps he reached his limit price and is now looking for the likes of me and others to drag the price back up to the high 80's before he looks to unload another 1%....?

Yes indeed Edgar and the figure for contingent reserves will be very different from the estimated recoverable reserves and the value of that, of course, on what we get paid for that gas; which will depend on the terms of the GSA and that, in turn, on who builds and owns the pipeline - amongst other things.

And as the current Wentworth price indicates whatever that value it does not necessarily translate into the market cap.

But hey, whatever the figure it surely will be a lot more than it is now ;-)

Well I cannot claim to be anything but disappointed because this is the fist time that I have been underwater for well over a year now. The only upside is that I can for the first time since early August 2020 actually look to lower my average.....

Every cloud has a silver lining eh? :-(

Actually both CP!!

But yes brick dropped :-)

January eh?

And what might that mean for timings? Thankfully most (short term) decisions and approvals are the province of the TPDC and PURA and so should be unaffected but that might create something of a hiatus on certain matters.

Nothing will be presented that isn't already in the public domain if that information could be considered remotely price sensitive. That, or would have to be made public first; hence we can assume either that we will be getting news before the imminent Investor Conferences or that there will be no NEW material news disseminated at those presentations .

quod erat demonstrandum....

"i can't believe that the Tanzanian Gov are that disjointed" come on BG, pull the other one!! You know they are that disjointed ;0)

"Tanzy time" - I like that idea; a bit like the idea of a "parallel universe".

It will come BG I have no doubt and there are at least another five or six weeks to the "rainy season"; who knows, maybe there will be time to get the approval, conduct the seismic programme and get the results out before then?

Well, in "PoC time" perhaps but certainly not in "Tanzy time"?

GLA.

Participation in two forthcoming Investor Conferences on the 13th and 22nd September.

AA I could not agree with you more and said as much last week; news will be needed to get this moving and if not news and purely reliant on charts and momentum it would need volume.

Needless to say that message did not accord with the view of most posters here.

But here we still are with no volume, no momentum, no news and hence no appreciable sp rise either. What a surprise eh?

Actually I withdraw that statement - yes, relatively small volume does occasionally result in movement but that movement quickly evaporates as as similarly small volume is required to send it moving in the opposite direction. That required volume though is typically tens of millions not low single figures.

"Low volume moves this quickly". Really?

Just because you say so doesn't make it true. Past performance would suggest otherwise.

And that CP will preclude any possibility of a JV for remediation and development until then too.....

The only significant and sustained increase in volume within the last 12 months with the Farm Out approval and completion in October, I believe it spiked close to 200m shares on one day with some sustained buying over the next few days. At that time the sp rose to about 1.4 p but only a month later it was back below 1p and on its way back down to 0.4p. It was the material news of the Farm Out completion that drove the sp NOT price action and momentum. The only momentum driven event was in March when the sp hit 0.8p and even that wasn't sustained for long.

I see no reason to think that there is anything that will create a sustained rise in the short term other than material news. And I struggle to see what that is likely to be unless we do eventually get the invoices paid or a JV partner for Kiliwani and whether or not that is likely in coming weeks and months is impossible for anyone to predict with any degree of certainty.

I wish you all a wonderful weekend aminexers. I am away for a few days - I live in hope that I will to return to see MaverickD predictions fulfilled.

GLA.

Well it is just a shame that "ticks" on a BB post do not represent a proxy" for the market Tanzania - I seem to remember Drewky occasionally getting a fair few "ticks" for his posts but unfortunately the TDPC and Tanzanian Govt weren't reading ;0)

Yes GL, £35 worth!! ;0)

I sincerely hope you are both right.

Well I cannot argue against the fact that "the charts" are suggesting an upward trend but then those charts cannot be relied upon without volume and we have had no significant volume for weeks and months.....

Well MaverickD, even a stopped clock is right twice a day; I am sure if you keep saying it long enough you will be right eventually.....

... horizon. So before many of the issues raised above become relevant we should expect to see a significant uplift on the expectations and excitement surrounding the drill. The interesting questions are how high will that sp rise on the back of the incoming rainbow chasers and the "hot money" and, possibly more importantly, at what level and for how long will that sp rise be maintained.....?

Hopefully we won't have any longer than another 12 months to find out.

GLA.

Morning all :0)

So let me first say that in general I largely agree with the comments on your post Edgar and one of those "ticks" is mine. But I do have a few comments to add.

1) "At the moment it is stranded gas. So little value": agreed, plus the fact that the valuation is only likely to increase significantly once monetisation can be assured, or at least defined - that is three years way (without hiccoughs) and requires a GSA to be put in place in the meantime (oh and a pipeline of course). So to your point about valuation being way above £25m - I agree and we should see a significant increase once we get closer to that "monetisation". I suppose the question is how close and how long will that take? And that ties in to your point about opportunity cost - until that monetisation is within touching distance people (most, not all) are likely to keep their powder dry and look at shorter term options for that money.

2) "the risks for Aminex have all but gone": I understand why you would say that but you must surely recall a point in time, circa April 2016 when AEX had drilled NT2, had income rolling in from Kiliwani, had $10m in the bank and were looking forward to drilling NT3? That was a time when I think we all thought the risks for AEX had all but gone!? But as it turned out nothing could be further from the truth. I won't need to remind you what happened after that.... Kiliwani and cash management aside mostly beyond the BoD's control.

We still need some income and that JV partner for Kiliwani remediation and development seems elusive (predictably in my view); we have limited cash resources and cannot live on "credit" indefinitely otherwise the balance sheet gets eroded, shareholder value and hence the sp will suffer. We also need that 2024 production date to be set in stone. I know that we all hope and some believe, that the new Tanzanian Administration will be a lot more accommodating than the last and I sincerely hope that is the case but until that supposed volte face is evidenced in action "the market" will remain sceptical in my view - (once, twice and thrice bitten... etc)

3) "....Zubair/Ara are as good as their word. They really do want to use Aminex as their vehicle in East Africa": here I am not so sure Edgar, what capability can AEX any longer even offer them? We have no operational capability whatsoever do we? Any technical staff we had have long since moved on either to APT or elsewhere. Moreover we have no war chest to "invest" and no capability of raising significant funding in the market. That said they do seem to be keeping faith with AEX but surely their original plans have had to be revisited in the light of AEX's decline? If we are to be their vehicle for East African expansion it could only be through Zubair stumping up the cash and they may as well now do that directly, surely?

Finally and to add to your comments we do have an up and coming CH1 spud and that could well be the first significant sp cata