Member Info for CrustyPete

Expectations of future costs and timescales are one thing - the reality could be totally different Aimster.

What happens to those costs and timescales if the license extension takes months to arrive and if APT decide to defer 3D seismics (and other long lead items) until it comes through? What happens to those timescale and expectations? What happens to the Jan Spud date? What is there to inform the JV partners of? What expenditure? There will be nothing to report!

A news drought.

Sorry PoC, I missed your question: "Crustypete, Surely if APT are spending money on the work programme or awarding contracts they need to let Aminex know to account for costs as part of the farmout. "

I am sure you are correct PoC but I would also expect that to be done in after the event and probably at the end of an agreed accounting period. Many have commented here on innumerable occasions that exploration bills are usually charged in arrears and not in advance. Add that to the fact that they will not be coming to AEX for cash so they are far more likely to be informing AEX of how they have spent AEX's "carry" and not how they WILL be spending it. Accounts are retrospective, statements of past expenditure and income after all.

They certainly will CP; of that there is no doubt ;-)

H2 already? Yes indeed the year is passing far too quickly for my liking - before we get any warm weather we will be staring at the evenings already getting shorter!!

They have no more obligation to SCIR than they do to to AEX.... of course as JV partners you would expect them to be informed but there is no guarantee nor obligation on APT's part to do so. Former shareholders of Scirocco will attest when NR ran the company ( as Solo) and when AEX were the operator (another listed company) and even then they were often kept in the dark until AEX were obliged to inform the market; only then were Solo updated. APT on the other hand have no obligation to inform the market and the JV partners will be totally reliant on APT on if and when they are kept up to date.

"Adding time again"? Really MD? If we were to get some short term news then you are likely to be right; there again, if we are about to enter another news drought then maybe not. During periods of no news this share price always drifts lower.

"Yes" I hear you bleat "but we will soon be hearing about a license extension, about continuation of the work programme, of contracts for drilling, of ......"

But none of those are within the Aminex Board's gift, MD. License extension is down to Tanzanian Authorities (who are up to their necks in Covid now that they have finally admitted it actually exists) and even if APT are doling out contracts for the work programme with or without a License extension they are under no obligation to make it known to the AEX shareholders.

Of course it would be great to get some material news but I certainly won't be expecting it; that would confound the lessons of history.

GLA

HOLD or BUY, yes I would agree but, self-evidently, others are not convinced! ;0)

Just wish I had some more cash.

"including during AAOG's decline when Sefton and Berwick were raping the company...."

Raping shareholders more like. I still do not understand how they have manage to get away scott free. Legalised robbery...

What a surprise? Not!

If the UK market is anything to go by it could simply be explained by the spread widening markedly as the Market Makers close down, leaving only one/two quoting and with a very wide spread.

But in any event I am off now for a day or two so here's hoping those EOY accounts arrive soon.

Good luck all and thanks PoC and grsshaw for your contributions today - all good points. :0)

"however if gas production figures as per the farmout agreement did not materialise, then APT will evidently forfeit their interest., or still be liable for payment"

I would agree with that in the large part but those two things are materially different and we no idea of which of the two options above is the reality (moreover other options are also possible). So to suggest as you do that AEX will definitely get their $35m of carry back as cash, discounts a number of alternative and in my view more likely outcomes and certainly cannot be stated as a fact - it is at best a "possibility".

PoC where does any of that even suggest "If non the above is achieved then the full $35m becomes due or the 50% will revert back to Aminex depending on the reasons for non performance."? It doesn't suggest any such thing.

You say "All farmouts as a general rule have a performance bond as standard"

Exactly and the payment of the $35m of carry will be contingent on TPDC and Tanzanian authorities enabling the FFD by signing off the work programme and a GSA. Without thee there is nothing to "carry"! APT will have derisked their commitment / investment by making one contingent on the other.

Unless you can point to a clause in the F/O agreement that supports your assertion it is nothing but guesswork.

Just to be clear PoC you say "Obviously if none of this happens then the $35m must be paid in full as money unspent as per the terms of the farmout.".....

Where have you got that from. It is just as likely that the FO agreement says that the $35m carry is dependent and contingent on the TPDC and Pura granting APT sign off on the work programme, conclusion of the 25 year development programme and a signoff on the GSA? As, without these, there will be no production and no future income streams.

So please show us where you can validate your assertion please.

"then the $35m must be paid in full as money unspent as per the terms of the farmout"

I would be interested to see where you get that information from please PoC. As far as I am aware the terms state that if anything is unspent at the point of FFD then any excess will be paid back from future income streams and that is a long way from fulfilling the terms you describe. So please show me where the terms of the Farm Out state what you claim.

grsshaw you ask "are you saying no one would support them and let $35m free carry go down the Swanee!!!"

I am saying that it MAY not be in APT's interest to support them for that cash as they stand to gain if AEX goes bust. AEX may well get someone to provide them with the cashflow that the AEX Board have stated they need and they but at what price? Dilution or loss of future income streams? It is evident that the Board have been unable to find that JV partner that they have (apparently) been looking for for the last year or more (and whilst avoiding dilution). Maybe a loan? But who is going to loan them money when they have little expectation of being able to pay it back or cover interest payments for three years (they haven't even got the license extension yet). And with the historical performance of the Tanzanian authorities there is a lot of risk for a lender.

Actually I am sure they will find a solution to get us through grrshaw; my question is more about at what price? Death Spiral funding? I bloody hope not.

Hence as vike suggested earlier and (we are told) Oilman Jim predicts, a placing looks the most likely solution. I just hope that we can hold it off until the CH1 drill and thereby minimise the effect of any fund raise on shareholder dilution and shareholder value.

I suggest that we will find out a lot more when the EOY figures come out. I simply hope that we do not have to wait much beyond the end of the month to see them.

GLA

boom.boom I am sure they would be more than willing to "sacrifice" their 30% to get hold of AEX's 25% of Ntorya for free....?

And PoC AT will only owe AEX the $35m if that is what is agreed as part of the Farm-Out agreement; moreover if AEX are not around to collect their 25% will simply pass over to the "Operators".

I would hope and pray that they will hold off on any potential dilution for as long as possible if only to ensure that the MC is optimised, thereby minimising the effects of any capital raise and dilution. But I agree with vike1 in the absence of any obvious alternative and with no obvious end in sight to the "invoice" issue a "placing" looks the most simple.

I have never given the idea of their finding a partner for KN1 remediation before such time as the invoices have been paid much credence as it would be too big a risk for the JV partner.

The only alternative to an equity raise would be borrowing from our cornerstone investor but I am not sure that is as easy as it sounds; firstly is it in their interests to shore up AEX and secondly is our balance sheet robust enough to support any significant lending? We may well find out more when the figures are out this week. I just hope that they are not pushed back as they have been previously.

Here's hoping.

GLA

"spinning yarns like the SP will go down if there is a delay in the Licence"..... So you don't think the sp will go down if the license is delayed Frank? And are you 100% that it won't be delayed? I am not saying it will, simply that it has always been delayed in the past and when that has happened the sp has taken a dive. If the license is delayed there is a very good chance the same will happen again. To suggest otherwise is just brainless.

And there you go again Frank - you are obviously in a better position than I am to know many shares I own; at least you think you are. In the same way that you know better than I do why I post what I post.

Dream on Frank; you keep up your pathetic, mindless drivel and I will keep up the "scaremongering" ;0)

fjones no-one gives two hoots what name you choose to give it. "Scaremongering" to you, common sense to most people and a counterpoint to the "happy-clappy" club.... Oh and frank, 11 million is more than enough for me; I am not looking to buy any more unless we see the sp fall after a delay in receiving the license extension. Are you saying that is not a possibility Frank? It will be the license delay that causes the sp to fall Frank and nothing that I might post on this or any other board. But then a simpleton like you can only see your own motivations in other people's actions eh? You might learn one day not to judge other people by your own base standards.

"BG don`t feed his fire please !!!" Maybe you ought to heed your own words Frank.

@ BG see 14th April at 9:11

"I am less concerned about any possible license delay impacting the eventual Spud date as unless the delay is considerable there should (hopefully) be ample time to mitigate those delays; indeed there is the possibility (I stress possibility) that APT will plough in with their preparations regardless of any delay

It is the immediate and potential, short term impact on the sp that I am concentrating on."

Goodnight and Good Luck all.

That was not the material point that I was questioning BG more the inference that we would have the date for a seismic contract soon. I would suggest that we will only have a date for the seismic contract once the license extension has been confirmed; not the other way round.

As regards the timing, where or when have I suggested that the work programme might be put off for another year? I certainly do not recall inferring that? Quite the contrary BG, if you check my posts, indeed you may recall, that only a few days ago I actively stated that even if the license extension was delayed it is unlikely to have a material impact on the date for CH1 spud (there should be enough wiggle room), unless the license is seriously delayed. Even more, that APT may well plough on with the work programme regardless. I stand by that view.

What %age chance of a delay to the work programme of as much as another year? Minimal I hope. But any delay in the license or Spud date is likely to have a negative impact on the sp. As you yourself seemingly agreed only a few days ago.

To ignore that possibility would be reckless based on past performance and yet the vast majority of posters here seem to be taking it for granted; I simply feel the need to offer a counterpoint to those somewhat bullish predictions.