Member Info for CrustyPete

Personally the price of re-entry is immaterial; no price is the right price until we have clarity on the "funding" and "dilution" issues. Even 0.35p might look expensive at that time. I would rather pay a bit more for the certainty that future funding is in place. Hence my point of the other day that the time to re-invest is once the dilution is out of the way, or at least the terms are known.

Thanks HM and agree something must be sorted out over that 6 month period, let's just hope that it doesn't, yet again, result in a horrendous dilution of shareholder value. If we avoid that I shall be adding, if not I will just take my medicine.

Agree matherdj. But I am sitting tight on AEX used SCIR for the "liquidity" that you speak of. I too will probably add that back in at some point over the next 12 months but certainly not for the next 4-6 or until funding is resolved, whichever comes first. If that funding comes by way of dilution that will probably me the time to re-enter the market.

Ultimately only time will tell and until then I shall be sitting on the sidelines and on my hands.

Until then good luck all. Bye for now.

I think your statement about "drill tarts" kind of misses the point HM. Patient or impatient is immaterial the point is why buy today and at today's price if you can buy later and at a cheaper price? And there appears to be little argument or justification to buy today and no obvious reason to suggest that those that wait will be paying a higher price. Maybe I am missing something but add in to that all of the factors you raise below and the prospect of further dilution between now and CH1 spud and you have to ask, what are the arguments in favour of buying now and being "patient"?

"Surely it's cheaper for the Zubairs to buy SCIR unfunded 25% ?" That depends on how you look at it PoC - The Zubairs are already paying $35m for the cost of carry for the AEX 25%. They would have to fund SCIR $35m too of they bought that.

I would largely agree with you PoC. However whilst I understand that the TPDC acceot that there are unpiad invoices they also believe that AEX and the KN JV partners owe them circa $5.7m. See below.

"On 11 April 2018, the Company received formal notification from the TPDC requesting payment of certain amounts totalling US$5.97 million for liabilities arising on revenues from gas sales, of which Aminex's share is estimated to be US$2.73 million."

This claim is strongly contested by AEX but until this claim is "settled" the TPDC will not be paying out on those invoices. This is akin to the CGT claim which was equally spurious and which eventually AEX have to concede - paying away $2m of the paltry $5m sale proceeds from Ntorya sale. I suspect taht if we want to move on with KN1 and Nyuni we will have to concede on this too. Though in reality all the time we have zero capital there is little point getting the approvals and license extension as we couldn't fund the development anyway.

"this is an excellent entry point for anyone looking to at least 3x bag in the next 12-18 months."

Another 12-18 months to get us back to where we were only two months ago?! Wow fecking wee! We will be awarding the Board Share Options next for doing such a sterling job ;0)

I think you have hit the nail on the head though vike - "yet with a solid operational plan in place and costs covered". We may have Ntorya costs covered but that is about it. We can cover our minimal overhead until May -June but beyond that and the additional wherewithal for "releasing shareholder value" it is difficult to foresee. I cannot see anyone taking the plunge here until there is greater clarity around where that funding is coming from and the extent to which shareholder value will be diluted to access it. We managed a paltry $5m and some credit for 50% of our single, most valuable asset so what will be be giving up just to get us to through Q1 2022, let alone FFD, income production or to remediate KN1 and develop either or both of KNS and Nyuni?

Yes the TPDC might take pity on us and see their way to paying us our invoices, (which might cover some of it). Then again, they might not.

Need you even ask PoC? 1p before Christmas we are told!

Next Christmas maybe ;0)

Really? So please explain what the payment is MD, the anticipated size of the payment and explain how that will result in a virtual doubling of the MC.

Quite right Frank and, sadly, all very predictable once that Spud date was pushed out so far into the future..... very few straws there to be clutched for the rose tinted spectacle brigade, unfortunately.

Maybe this will help BG:

"...... development of the Group's other assets in Tanzania will require the sourcing of additional funding. This includes the Nyuni Area PSA where the Group has applied for the licence to be extended on a revised work programme, as disclosed in Note 14. The Kiliwani North Development Licence has no work programme commitments. There remains significant uncertainty as regards the ability of Aminex to raise funds in the current market conditions due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the depressed oil price. These may result in the Company having to raise funds at whatever terms are available at the time."

But that is still sometime away methinks BG as we still need a work programme approved. Moreover the Unpaid Invoices have effectively been written off as they do not form part of Aminex's "going concern" statement - see below.

"Trade receivables of US$8.0 million, of which Aminex's net share is US$3.3 million, have not been taken into account in the cash flow forecast due to the claims for certain amounts by the TPDC, set out in Note 10 to the financial statements. Although this trade receivable is due, the TPDC continue to delay payment until a resolution is reached in respect of the claims and the Directors consider it prudent not to take this receivable amount into consideration of the Group's ability to continue as a going concern."

So that probably means it will go the same way as our CGT conversations, which we ended up conceding.

I also refer you to the outstanding risks that AEX themselves have highlighted as part of their half yearly statement. Note point 2 & 3.

· Ability to complete the Ruvuma Farm-Out
· Ability to secure other financing for Group operations
· Ability to meet licence work commitments
· Delayed or non-payment of receivables from the TPDC
· Delay in approval of the Nyuni Area Second Extension Period with amended work commitments

Oh and by the way BF there have been countless examples of Institutional Placings that PI's have been excluded from and 1 or 2 examples in AEX's (and Solo's) recent history.

Yes of course you are right CP but, frankly I won't be holding my breath for either of those alternatives; better for the Board to make plans in expectation of those two events being unlikely methinks.

BF, you say "PIs are on the same terms as any shareholders" not when the party with whom you are entering into an agreement is an "interested party"....... Yes $5m and $35m of credit for all shareholders, including the 29% held by APT but with 50% of the Ntorya License and operator status of the License going in the opposite direction. You will be telling me next that was a fair exchange.....

Oh sorry CP didn't quite finish - Convertible Loan in favour of our Cornerstone Investor perhaps?

I believe there will be some form of dilution CP but not a placing; a JV of some sort or perhaps an arrangement (loan?) with APT...?

That long awaited solution as alluded to by RA. Though your guess is as good as mine as to what that might be CP.... and yet again because of AEX's total lack of a bargaining position it will be on totally one-sided terms. Hence my expectation that the "provider" of that solution will be our cornerstone investor. Why give up shareholder "value" to a third party if we can line the Zubair's pockets by doing so eh CP?

I don't see much chance of a placing in all honesty Frank; minimal market cap and ever falling share price. What price do you think they would get a placing away Frank? 3-4p? And to raise how much? £2m? £4m? That'll be a 15-30% dilution and I don't think the market (or our cornerstone investor) would swallow it. Unless they are behind it of course - more self-interested "support" from our cornerstone investor and transfer of value from PI's to them?

Well if that is the case CP, then personally, I see not great justification for reinvesting in SCIR. Surely not simply for the hope that they manage to get a great deal for their 25%? Even if they do, how much of that will translate into the sp? Not a lot methinks unless they choose to pay it out as a dividend, which seems unlikely if they are looking to use that as the pump primer for European acquisition or Joint Ventures....

Anyway, in any event, good luck.

Incidentally CP, as you know, I do agree that the "price" that AEX received a derisory sum from APT for the farm-out. I agree it should be worth far more, pro-rata, than AEX managed to "negotiate" (Lol). So I would hope that any figure received by SCIR for their 25% far exceeds anything that AEX managed - which should make any argument about the relative value of cash versus credit somewhat meaningless. I also hope (and expect) that the SCIR board will decide not to sell out and actually stick around long enough to benefit from the CH1 drill.