Member Info for CrustyPete

@CP you say "if you don't believe that benchmarking a price against the latest sale price is the correct base method for valuation then we will have to disagree".

But I do CP the point that I disagree with is the value that you attribute to that sale price. Credit is NOT equal to cash....

Regarding any vote by shareholders CP; I suspect that they will almost certainly vote with whatever the Board recommends. Who knows, by then I may well be voting with them? ;-)

So CP one easy question. Will $1m received in 2024 be worth as much then as $1m received today?

So fecking what?! It is totally meaningless..... even if it was likely. It in no way repudiates the assertion that $35m of credit in no way equates to $35m in cash. Even the few shekels they may get returned as cash are not as valuable then, as that same cash in their hand today.

"Like it or not the deal states very clearly that cash will be returned for any monies not spent" - that statement that, simply, misses the point entirely.

Where you are right CP is that, no, I am not currently a shareholder; ironically it is because of the opportunity cost of holding it. There is something that I wanted to be in for the next 3/4 months. Once that has run its course I will be looking to re-enter SCIR, assuming Ntorya is still "in play". Though my being a shareholder is something of am irrelevance CP as my argument with you regarding the "value" of Aminex's $35m of carry has been going on for months and long before I decided to (temporarily) jump ship. The CH1 drill delay was largely the trigger for that as I couldn't justify continuing to hold until Q1 2022 - the opportunity cost s just too high. And that, in part is the big downside of having $35m of credit hypothecated to just one project - you have no control what to do with it.

And that means that despite all that I have outlined below that one slim fact is enough to convince you that $35m credit equates to $35m in cash?! Laughable. So a small element of cash MAY be returned to shareholders in 3 - 5 years time - and even that possible small amount will not have the same value as the same amount of cash in hand today (ever heard of something called, "time value of money" CP?) - which by itself is sufficient to prove that credit does not equal cash and you bloody know it CP....

It is a FACT that AEX received $35 million of credit that can only be spent on Ntorya until and unless it is returned at the end of the project (3 - 4 years time?). That is not a "cash" equivalent as I have been asserting for a long time CP; cash would have allowed AEX to diversify outside of Tanzania, to remediate KN1, even pay shareholders a (small) dividend or buy back shares. $35 million of "credit" does none of those things - it simply ensures that shareholders have no option but to await the potentially protracted and by no means guaranteed completion of Ntorya and the eventual return on that investment. With the time cost of money, technical risk, political risk, operational risk (AEX could go bust) and opportunity cost associated with that "credit" to suggest that it is the equivalent of cash is simply nonsensical CP. I'm sorry but that is also a fact and one that you seemingly continue to ignore or fail to accept.....

That might be hibernation not a doze Scrambler!

Me too. I would be buying more at these levels but the cupboard is now bare :-(

Exactly HAM... pretty much what I have been saying all along.

I am pretty sure that APT will be our "saviour" yet again - at least that is the spin that will be put on it - but at what cost? It won't be "interest" alone, that I will wager.

And BG I am sorry but I would beg to differ. $1m $1.2m is not minimal - particularly when you don't have a dime in your pocket. Especially when you have are not in a position to no negotiate and with the clock running down.... Even if we do get a partner or funding to complete the remediation it certainly won't be providing us with income before we run out of capital to "keep the lights on".

So essentially BG you have absolutely no idea of how much the perforation will cost and yet are comfortable stating, as a fact, that it will be a "minimal" sum? You even state that AEX themselves have not quoted a figure and yet whilst you are "just a laymen" still make the statement that the cost will be "minimal". So that assertion is totally baseless then?

I have a fairly good idea of what it is likely to cost as indicated below. I don't think that cost is "minimal" and am 100% certain that AEX cannot currently fund it; and are looking at the cash running out by mid 2021.

So yes BG " it could of course all fall into place with one wave of RA's magic wand" but I actually think there is still quite a lot of work to do before we ever get into a position to effect any KN1 remediation plan.

Very briefly Terrier; we have been under 100p fairly consistently now for three weeks plus.... I have been buying at under 100p throughout that period Terrier so have experienced it at first hand.

I fully understand that this is "the plan" BG BUT what you continually fail to understand or acknowledge is that to do anything at all they need the capital to complete it; they currently do not have the proverbial pot to pi55 in.

You keep bleating on about "Minimal cost" BG - so please be specific - how much will this plan cost? Or are you just guessing? How much cash do AEX have in the bank? Simply saying "minimal cost" without having any evidence or even any idea of what this will cost is a totally meaningless and hollow statement. What is "minimal" BG? Come on - enlighten us with your knowledge.

Based on my past experience of similar scenarios I suggest that to re-enter the well and re-perforate lower zones will cost circa $1.0 - $1.2m so unless the TPDC are about to hand out our unpaid invoices or until we have a partner to fund this we will not be doing this any time soon. Moreover and, just to remind you, this is NOT guaranteed to succeed..... so where are AEX going to find a potential partner that is prepared to risk front loading that cost without guarantee of something in return?

It is Terrier for the umpteenth time and therefore there is a risk that it will eventually fall below the 90p support level and, if so, where will the next support level be? That gap fill that all and sundry have been banging on about for weeks might be realised....

This shouldn't happen because of the link to Nasdaq / SPAC but it has to be said that there is little upward momentum here and before long that lack of momentum will become a problem. Those days above £1.50 and even £1.00 seem a long while ago now.

IMO of course.

;0)

As, when and if they have the money BG.... oh and then the necessary approvals..... oh and then there is the issue of the invoices. And all before the money runs out in May.

I agree BG it could of course all fall into place with one wave of RA's magic wand - let's hope we all wake up on some magical, rose tinted, parallel universe tomorrow where such things happen to order and the Tanzanian Authorities have experienced an epiphany.

I remain hopeful BG but not expectant.

And equally PoC the TPDC need confidence that AEX have the capability, both technical and financial, to complete any work programme and that it will have a reasonable chance of success - and that does NOT mean throwing a few £10k at the Foam "gamble", which is about as much as it is, with only a 10 -20% chance of success..... what is the "Plan B" and where is the money coming from to complete it?

I don't think that will wash; the KN1 resources are minimal and the drill is failing (has failed), there is no guarantee of successful remediation (indeed very limited COS) and AEX will need 3D seismics before submitting a work programme to the TPDC for approval for KNS. And all this belore May/June 2021? There is also the thorny issue of resolving the outstanding invoice issues - 2P reserves require not only a GSA and approved work programme but also the likelihood of successfull payment for the gas you extract! ;0)

Indeed 2C gas "resources", excuse me. A 2C resource becomes a 2P reserves only once they can be extracted and that requires a GSA and work programme. Without these reserves cannot be monetised.