Member Info for CrustyPete

Hi Jetty, I fully understand your logic and agree with most of it but I would ask, how many long term holders will still be here after the CH1 spud? And more, will AEX still be AEX by the time Ntorya starts to yield a "dividend"? Moreover, looking at WEN, would you still want to be a shareholder at that time? As Highyield alluded to earlier today if being an income generating dividend paying Tanzanian Gas producer gives you an enterprise value equating to the WEN MC why would you bother to hold?

For those that may be interested. I too decided to top up today with just a few shares below 1.0p. Not that my purchase is meant to be an indication of where I think the sp will go over coming days (I am buggered if I know!) but just in case there is an announcement over the next day or two ( I wouldn't be at all surprised). Though I still have cash in reserve in case we are kept waiting....

And that from someone that freely admits that I have too many already! ;0)

Agreed on the KN South proposition CP, far better ROCE, but again all other hurdles need crossing first and , of course, KN South requires considerably more by way of capital investment too....

That presupposes it is "sortable" steve. I am not sure that it is - or that it will provide sufficient ROCE. Even if it so, who would pump more capital into KN1 remediation all the time the TPDC are withholding $7m of unpaid invoices? Even then it would need TPDC approval for any work programme to commence.

KN1 has been the achilles heel for all JV partners for years now - it would require a change of attitude and approach on the part of the Tanzanian Authorities to get this moving.

We can but hope :0)

I would agree potatospud it is worth more than £37m market cap; but that doesn't necessarily mean to say that the sp will reflect that anytime soon. (Indeed if I didn't believe that I would not now still be holding millions of them.) Not until we have a spud date or potentially, dependent on that spud date, a license extension.

But I am too hopeful that the sp will continue to rise - I just do not think that you can read much into todays trades and price movement as you were suggesting. So I suggest that you don't attempt to read more into my posts than is actually there.

Do I think it may go below 1p? Possible but unlikely in my view, as long as we get some more news soon - as I fully expect. Though potatospud, even if it does I will not be worried - I might even buy a few more.

So what was it about the deal that you think I didn't understand Tanzania? Please enlighten me.

Oh and for your information I had many millions of AEX shares at the time of the initial Farm-Out notification and at the time of the EGM and still have today. As many of those who turned up to various AGM's and the F/O EGM could testify.

"Fascinating"? Really I am not sure that it is possible to read anything into that downward movement; neither the volume nor value of SELL transactions was significant enough to indicate anything much, in my view.

This type of movement has been observed many times during periods of volatility in the AEX share price and speculation about forthcoming "news". It is best to disregard it in my view, it will be temporary and transitory. News moves this price and rarely anything else.

Buy on the dips.

I agree that SCIR are in a better negotiating position than AEX were however the Zubairs still hold all the cards and would have to agree to any new JV partner. Moreover as I have stated for a long long time CP unless SCIR can come up with sufficient cash to fund seismics, CH1 drill and maybe more than the one drill they too are in a "forced sale" position.

I seriously do hope that the BOD manage to get shareholders good value for their 25% but I do not and never have shared your view of its value nor the number of potential "buyers". I still think it is 50:50 on APT being the purchaser and at a price of their choosing. I also think that any chance of there being a meaningful dividend for long suffering shareholders has long since passed. Personally I would swap any dividend for some meaningful carry - "tick" or no tick. In my opinion $10-15m of "tick" would be preferable to $5 -7m of cash as I do not think cash will translate into pro rata sp rise but "skin in the game" for the CH1 and subsequent drills almost certainly would.

Time will tell - and hopefully we won't be waiting long

Oh and just one thing - you cannot "spend" "carry"... so there won't be much to pay out by way of dividend if the SCIR BOD accept "tick" as part of any deal and from a buyers perspective "tick" is cheap -

As regards the sale value of SCIR's 25% - I learnt my lesson once before on this very valuation. Many here and on the AEX BB talking of £100 -200M for AEX's 50%. What a bloody laugh that was - we got $5m and some "tick"...... moreover AEX had spent far more than that on the original license and the development / drilling of the area subsequently and yet that held no sway at all; indeed just to add insult to injury we then end up paying CGT on the sale proceeds. Lol!

If you didn't laugh you would cry.

So, if as I read below, there are shareholders out there expecting £hundreds of millions for 25% they should start to prepare for disappointment.

My expectation FWIW? I will be happy of we receive anything over $25m but would not be surprised if it were less.

Oh and John, you ask "Why the hell can't AEX APT and SOLO/SCIROCCO formulate a plan and then publish it and stick to it ?"

Good gracious John, surely by now you would have worked out that neither AEX nor SCIR have any control over the events that dictate both our short and long term fortunes?! And now that AEX is no longer the operator of Ntorya that is more true today than ever it has been before. There is even less point railing at the AEX or SCIR Boards now than ever before - APT is now in total control of Ntorya so you ought to be directing your invective towards them - not that they will give two hoots about yours or anyone else's opinion.

Unless Ambrose is able to make a statement that is definitive and immutable it would simply lead to further criticism and accusations of equivocation. And as everyone knows the thing that markets and investors like least? Uncertainty.

He would be best advised to keep his mouth shut until he has something worth saying.

We have all waited a very long time for the promised land and have learned a lot of lessons along the way. Better not to repeat the mistakes of past BOD's methinks. The sp has always been volatile and will remain so for some time yet but the longer term trend will be up, so stick with it and avoid spending all day, everyday looking a daily price fluctuations is my suggestion.

GLA

Exactly CP, if you thought investor relations was bad historically you best prepare yourself for an increasingly barren future - as I said a week or two ago the Zubair's have proven in the past that they have no need or understanding of PR or Investor Relations - indeed they would prefer to say as little as they could get away with and, as a private company, they have no obligation to say anything at all. AEX will be totally reliant on APT for the timing and content of all future Ntorya related RNS's...... :-(

GLA

The risk to PI's though is that if there is a period of "inactivity", with little news, rather than close out their positions attempt to minimise their loses and redouble their efforts to take the price down. A very risky strategy I would suggest in the case of 4D but one that has certainly been successfully implemented in other stocks.

"such important news"? Really - the important news was the Tanzanian Govt approval min my view and hence the sp rise from circa 0.40p to where we are today; today's RNS simply confirms what was, surely, inevitable - it was not a question of "if" but "when".... hence in my view largely in the price.

The real news now is the timescales and implementation of seismics and drilling.

No, I mean this is a "takeover" by 4D pharma not the other way round...... hence 4D keeping the name plate over the door. 4D are in the driving seat. Good news was my view. So Scrambler I am not fighting a losing battle as you put it - I am very happy with it.

Hence the BUY.

It looks to all intents and purposes like an RTO to me.... 4D backing in to a NASDAQ listing and still keeping the name plate over the door in doing so.

A very similar argument could have been made for the AEX valuation when the recently completed F/O was originally proposed - indeed we were both vociferous about the AEX Board selling out at "fire sale" prices. Just because the sale price considerably undervalued the assets it didn't stop the farm-out happening......

25% sold for $2.5m of cash and $17.5m of "credit"..... that is not the same thing as $20m

"the end" edgar?!?! Surely you will be hanging around for another 14 years!!??