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Those who got derided yesterday for suggesting that anything less than a phenomenal RNS would result in an sp fall don't look quite so daft now do they....?

So BG what fanciful hypothesis can you make out of that? Maybe the Tanzanian Admistration have been holding of on the F/O approval until the Chairman of the Association of Tanzania Oil and Gas has opined? It might clinch the election? It might be material for the Ntorya development? Maybe even the Kiliwani work programme?

Then again....

AEX used the High Commissioner many moons ago to intercede with AEX outstanding invoices; unfortunately all overtures fell on deaf ears.

#Scrambler you say "No CEO in their right mind is going to give a public interview that is very positive and then dish up a dog turd. That would be his career in tatters."

Yes that may be true but is doesn't stop it happening - I have surely invested in a few who did exactly that and whilst they may have long since gone into ignominious obscurity it didn't leave shareholders any better off - they still had a nasty shock.

Just to say that I am along term holder of 4D and have every confidence in the Executive and the Technical teams however I am realistic enough to recognise that every company has peaks and troughs and NO sp goes up n a straight line....

I disagree bluesky, olderandwiser is right to be cautious; indeed the Blautix RNS dos not need to be "poor" for it to have a negative impact on the sp - it simply needs to be below expectations and after all the hyperbole and hot air pumped into 4D on this board and others that is perfectly possible......

GLA

Indeed CP, I agree nothing much has happened since NT2 drill which, if they hadn't messed it up may well have triggered a far more substantial a rise on sp beyond the eventual 7p. Since when, highlighted by the debacle that was Kiliwani we have seen a succession of Boards deliver nothing but a continuing and inexorable erosion of shareholder value. It is now questionable whether and to what extent this decline is reversible......

Goodness me you will be telling me next that AEX put the Oil down there - no BG the point I am making was that the "assets" were always underground it was simply during the AEX watch they were "discovered" - if it hadn't been AEX it is just as likely to have been someone else (Kiliwani too) but another incumbent may well not have messed up the drilling and development ....

Nearly 11 million BG actually. I do not think that I am being "negative" BG, simply realsitic and rational, recognising things for what they are rather than looking at everything through rose tinted spectacles - a viewpoint that, to date, has proven to be ridiculously optimistic; such as the recent blind optimism that suggested that every one of the last 9 back-stop extensions was going to be the one that saw the Farm Out approved! What a joke that was.

Moreover is likely that same rose tinted optimism was responsible for hoodwinking many into taking a holding here or maybe increasing one, in the expectation that there was likely to be a short to medium term profit or break even here only to still be sitting here months or years later and well "underwater".

But enough BG life is too short. I wish you well with your straw clutching and fantastical theories - after all if you keep it up long enough, you never know, one day you might be right.

GLA.

I stand by me original statement BG - to suggest that 17MMscfd and a ruined well is "exceeding expectations" is simply nonsense and that together with the eventual outcome at Kiliwani simply proves that technically and operationally the AEX Board and Executive management were never up to the job.

The Ntorya assets were always there BG and yes it was AEX at the helm when they were "appraised" BUT the "bigger picture" BG is that based on AEX past drilling and development performance anyone with a stake in either Nyuni and Ntorya and with the potential that those assets (Ntorya in particular) hold for shareholders, Tanzanian Industry the Exchequer and Citizens would be bloody mad to trust the development and exploration of those assets to AEX.

You keep to your guns BG but you are fooling no-one.

"it exceeded all expectations"?? What total rubbish! You really expect shareholders to believe that 17 scuffs per day and a bore ruined by mudding up was exceeding all expectations. Good god BG that really does take the biscuit.....

And yes Kiliwani took eight years to finally get into production and yes, part of that was waiting for SS GPP but then look what happens; eighteen months into production and 3/4 four years early the gas pressure disappears to nothing. Another great piece of technical analysis and implementation and a great ROCE.....

So yes the question is still valid BG, there is no Farm-Out yet and the Zubairs do not "control" Kiliwani. And until they do would the TDPC have sufficient confidence to "approve" any work programme at Kiliwani based on previous performance?

You keep grasping at those straws BG, you might even convince yourself eventually! I am afraid others are not so easily fooled.

I would admit that without AEX there would not now necessarily be any Ntorya gas - however you cannot get away from the fact that when it comes to drilling AEX do not have a stellar record. They spent an eternity (8 plus years) developing the Kiliwani well only for the gas to run out after a less than two years and , as I said before nearly blew up Tanzania with the NT2 well. Neither of those had anything to do with APT. F you were the TPDC would you trust them to drill the next Kiliwani or Ntorya wells?

You speculated earlier that the reason that for delaying the farm-out was to force APT's hand in developing Kiliwani. No BG all they had to do was give AEX the approvals they needed and AEX would have done it themselves... So why didn't they?

Yes and look at AEX's..... the last well they drilled nearly blew up the country and the Kiliwani drill barely repaid the drill costs. But then let's face it it would be neither AEX or WEN "drilling" in Nyuni - it would be "outsourced" as indeed was always AEX's intention. AEX have zero expertise or knowledge of "offshore" or "nearshore" drilling....

"so is/has the Gov of Tanzania been stalling on signing off the Farm-out and been trying to push for a AEX/APT deal that better suits their present gas infrastructure ?"

A possibility BG but if we are playing those games how about one or two more....?

No, but they might rather it be run by someone with cash, a good track record of delivery and who still commands their confidence. WEN maybe? Maybe they have been stalling on the Kiliwani "approvals" and unpaid invoices to force AEX into the clutches of WEN?

Indeed play that out to its logical conclusion: delaying on everything simply to force AEX into WEN's clutches for Nyuni and the Zubairs for Ntorya and get rid of AEX altogether.... after all, since the day that AEX last produced gas (nearly three years ago) they have become something of an irrelevance anyway.

If they didn't have an LSE full listing for what bloody reason would the Zubairs need AEX at all. And it may now have got to the point that the benefit may no longer justify the effort to sustain it.

The potential for Nyuni inshore is severely limited by comparison to the "known" Ntorya reserves - Kiliwani South estimated reserves of circa 58 mccfd from memory - and that will still need a pipeline building to connect it to SS GPP. Moreover the Zubairs would only benefit to the tune of 30% of AEX pro rata license ownership of that development. The ROCE for Nyuni versus Ntorya is poor by comparison and no guarantee of early time to market. Yes there is a GSA in place but still lots of outstanding issues to resolve not least of which are the necessary approvals for the work programme for the Nyuni license and the remediation of NT1 and the outstanding invoices. There is more to sort out here than there is for Ntorya and a significantly lower ROCE.

That's why not.

We have already been through 170 on at least one occasion and I believe actually reached 178 on the offer - albeit briefly. The art is not reaching 170 or 178 but staying there.....

"should really be advocating buying AEX should you....?" read "shouldn't"... DOH!

" people should be buying not selling at this point ".... Really Frank? You are convinced that the Fam-Out is happening then? If you think there is any doubt about that you should really be advocating buying AEX should you....?

I already have more than just a few of these but I wouldn't be buying them now. Indeed only a few days ago you were suggesting sitting on the sidelines and waiting for the F/O to complete before buying. Now that you have bought back in again you are exhorting people to buy them....

True to form.

That is total guess work - $40m - it could be based on just about anything. The essence of Capital Gain is just that - a gain! To suggest that AEX accumulated a "gain" of $40m is nonsense. Firstly the license cost them money and the development and appraisal of the assets many £m's; in seismics, drilling and logistics. Moreover they have yet to receive any of the "free carry" which by any measure is worth considerably less in real terms than $35m, for a multitude of reasons.

Who is to say what the $2m was calculated on - if you are correct, $2m would represent only a 5% "tax" levy, when as an example that figure would currently be $8m in the UK. Consequently I suggest the actual Capital Gain that AEX was taxed on was considerably LESS than $40m.

Okay, thanks Mather - useful.

You make a good point BG; maybe that is the rationale for forcing the issue with the Tanzanain Govt? If they do not get the F/O approval in October they would risk running out of time to deliver the necessary work programme before next April and therefore the next license extension. Why Farm-In to a license that may not get extended beyond April. They could end up funding 3D seismics and complete drill preparations only to forfeit the lot to the TPDC in April because they did not have time to complete it....