Member Info for CrustyPete

I would have thought that it would be fairly obvious to the "patient" whether it is "C" or "D"...... :0)

"flexible" ? Zero is my guess; that is the benefit of credit hypothecated to one project.... it means that AEX cannot spend it on anything else. It ties AEX into Ntorya for the foreseeable future, guarantees commitment, guarantees that APT have a "well-funded" JV partner and means that AEX cannot fritter the cash away on rash investments. Hence it is not in APT's interests to offer any flexibility on that cash pile.

It is also the reason that $35m of credit is not worth $35m of cash for valuation purposes.

Because the LSE don't make the spread they simply report it.

Yes BG it is a spur road off the Dangote access road.

The road that is referred to was built to enable the construction and supply of the Dangote Cement Factory some kilometers away in Mtwara.

The 3D seismics is required only to ensure the optimal location of the necessary drill sites. It is suggested that by relying on 2D for NT1 and 2 they did not optimise the locations, certainly of NT2. It would have been better a few hundred yards West and updip.

foolsandcows; do I think AEX will survive until C2? If AEX survive to C1 (which I am sure they will) I would be very surprised if we had to wait very long for C2 or C3 and C4 for that matter. I could fully foresee (indeed I expect) four wells being drilled within 12 -18 months of the CH1 spud date and once that pipeline is in place there is sufficient gas flow to pretty much fill it.

Oh and one other very important point MAX - you say "for every seller there is buyer who will pay whatever we get to". There might well be but, as we long suffering LTH's have witnessed at first hand, that is no guarantee that those "buyers" will make money ;0)

Yes Panch that might well be true but assuming that during the CH1 spud the sp rises to 7p will that sp hold for the 18 -24 month period whilst they drill more wells, build the pipeline and wait for the GSA to be approved?

In that intervening period how will AEX keep the lights on? They have already stated that they will need a partner and that will involve dilution in one form or another so how much of that 10p will we shareholders be giving away to a JV partner during that period?

Oh and by the way I am not suggesting that I know the answers - I am just pointing out that there is still a huge amount that is not know. And that is fundamentally why there will be an awful lot of investors that will not see out that "journey" to full production - though to MAX's point below yes there will be others that pick up the baton and see out that journey - the question will be at what price does that baton move from one to the other which, of course, will be different for everyone. But the profile of that transfer will dictate the movement of the share price in the intervening period.

That is not quite true is it MAX - if there are more sellers at a given price than there are buyers the sp will fall until it becomes attractive to buyers and the price moves the other way... there will come a price at which the "market" perceives that the downside of the share is greater than the potential upside, or that the upside is a long way out and the "time value" of money does not justify holding further. The risk / reward ratio switches and at that point the sp stops rising - at least until that balance changes. Everyone will have a different view of where that watershed occurs.

In short, you might think that at 2p the risk / reward ratio suggests that you should be buying it, at 4p it is still worth holding but NOT buying (maybe topslice) and at 6p it becomes a sell. Everyone will be making their own judgement on these pivot points as the sp moves upwards and everyone will come to a different conclusion.

Actually I do not think that is the best scenario. The best scenario in my view is, a fantastic CH1 drill result, repaid invoices, remediation of KN1 and successful drilling of KNS; then the eventual development to production of multiple wells with the income streams attached. Once we have all these things, then and only then, should we consider selling up or selling down our Tanzanian assets, or being bought out.

Maybe we have MAX but do you think that sp rise will be consistently upwards all the way to production? Do you think that we all have the same "target price"? There are very many here who saw the sp hit 7p and, for a variety of possible reasons (greed, not online, waiting for drill results etc) missed it. There are many who think that we are unlikely to see 7p again before production (18 months away?) and do not want to wait that long. There are many that might be sceptical that this seeming change in Tanzanian Admin attitude is anything but fleeting. And there will be many hundreds of invertors who having been "underwater" for years are simply looking at the first opportunity they can find to get out with their shirts intact.

It takes all sorts to make a market MAX and when like AEX 60% or more are Private Investors there is rarely any logic or predictability to outcomes.

Actually Robbie it hasn't even moved up - the spread currently masks the "real" position. Presently BUYS are going through at circa 1.52p and SELLS at 1.48. Hence a mid price of 1.50p - exactly where we started the day.

That is pretty good considering the rise witnessed in recent days - in the past there would have been a stampede for the door. It is a reflection of the level of optimism that we have not yet seen that - though we will probably see that exodus increase the higher the price roses

12.34

1.6p paid? - I am bloody glad I don't use their broker!

Tat will surely depend upon the outcome and timing of a possible sale of Solo's 25%?

I would expect that if Solo can hang around until the CH1 drill the performance of both stocks would e broadly similar; if Solo sell out before CH1 the Solo shareprice will peak a lot sooner but is likely to decline thereafter whereas the AEX drill price will climb up to and during the CH1 drill. I also suspect that the speculative money flowing into AEX over the period of drilling will be considerably higher than the Solo shareprice (pro-rata) if Solo sell out beforehand.

Hence I strongly hope that Solo are still involved over the drill - the shareprice will rise higher and the sale price of the 25% will surely be much greater post Spud than before. The combination of the two events would surely benefit Solo shareholders far more than just the sale...?

Post farm/out AEX will be largely reliant on APT for the timing of any RNS releases and both historically and anecdotally they are notoriously tight lipped and prefer not to create headlines.

Unreaslitic methinks BG - do Sakson and Heritage Oil still even exist?! Only joking but being serious it would be usual for those arrangements/ agreements to be time bound. Not one of those parties would be able to commit to arrangements beyond a certain horizon - they could not possibly know what they would be doing two years into the future. Do Heritage Oil now even have any drilling commitments? Are the rigs discussed now being used elsewhere? And would AEX want to be tied into prices agreed two years ago?

I suspect that Sakson are probably doing very little at present and Heritage may well have modified their drilling plans and commitments and, with the inactivity in the market, AEX/APT would probably want to get the drilling done at a fraction of the price agreed two years ago....

That is indeed very true BG, the road passing in close proximity means an extended drilling season and will enable faster transportation to the drill site but even so, typically, it takes 6 - 8 weeks to set up a drill and get it inspected prior to drilling. Consequently whilst a January/ February drill date looks eminently feasible I do think a turn of the year drill is pushing things somewhat....

That is unlikely BG unless AEX/APT have been doing a lot of work in the background during the extended "lull" in activity whilst waiting for the Tanzanian Govt to pull their finger out of their ar5e. Specifically how can they have lined up a drill without being able to commit to a drill date? Of course they may have one on standby but the last I heard (a long tome ago I will admit) there wasn't a suitable drill in the whole of East Africa currently.