Member Info for CR1909

I have already messaged them twice using the form they have online but no reply.

The first time was after the successful placing and the second was the publication of the research into interferons.

It's all guesswork at the minute but here is what I think I know:

• phase two results are known but subject to a peer review.
• phase 3 trial developed with the FDA, discussions obviously going on with them and potential for early approval depending on success.
• trial at home in progress -some results seem to be known already.
• heavily suspected (thanks to Oxford) that trials in care home is underway or will be shortly.
• involvement in discussions and trials with NIHS and EMA which are subject to a rolling review.
• scaling up to 100,000 treatments per month by 2021.
• end game to sell or partner with big pharma.

There are no certainties as trials may not go to plan but it looks like they are attacking this from all the right angles, engaging with all the right people and have a pathway to deliver to whoever gives the green light first.

I'm sure it's 100,000 per month.

Look how quickly the placing shares sold - it was oversubscribed so they could have raised more money to produce more treatments. Unless that is the maximum a supplier could scale up to. I do think it must be based on an estimate of those who could be best served by the treatment though.

I still think there is something we're missing around the scale up to 100,000 treatments per month which has been mentioned.

As I said before, I think everything Synairgen are doing is for a reason. I don't believe this number is simply the highest number they could produce or what was affordable. I had thought it may be the number of treatments required for patients in ICU based on a certain percentage of bed occupancy, but perhaps it could be linked to numbers of people in care homes etc. How many months of treatments @100k per month to cover the most vulnerable or who could benefit most from synairgen?

Interesting article on the number of people with antibodies and how long these last against coronavirus.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54696873

We only seem to be scratching the surface with how this virus behaves - so much for the plan of herd immunity! Further evidence of the need for effective treatments.

I think some similar questions have been raised recently.

I am certainly no expert but appears it's to do with the purchase price you paid, and the buy/sell price at the time.

If your purchase was closer to the 'sell' price then this may be identified as a sell. The trades on here are not 100% accurate so it's a best estimate based on the price you paid and the prices at the time.

SP will soar if successful, fall if unsuccessful and results due when ready

I hope you're both right.

Maybe this morning was a last chance to get on board at the placing price.

Nice to see some blue again!

@Dumbpunter -lifted straight from the placing RNS.

Using the pre-specified logistic regression analysis, SNG001 reduced the odds of developing severe disease or dying in the ITT population by 79% (OR 0·21; 95% CI: 0·04, 0·97; p=0·046). As quasi-complete separation of data occurred in some model covariates, an additional post-hoc, Firth logistic regression analysis was conducted. This showed there was a trend towards reduced odds of progression to severe disease or death in the ITT population (72% reduction; OR 0·28; 95% CI: 0·07, 1·08; p=0·064) that became significant in the per protocol population (82% reduction; OR 0.18; 95% CI: 0.04, 0.93; p=0.041).

Let's face it, none of us really know what the SP could be in the event of successful trial results.

If phase 3 results match phase 2 then it could be like nothing you've ever seen. Look at how well Novacyt is performing from selling tests - a treatment and a test are not even comparable.

Did any of us think a year ago we would see a lockdown scenario? Pop up hospitals in major cities? Closed borders etc? Course not - the scale of this pandemic means an effective treatment would be invaluable. If you find one then attach whatever price you want to it and someone may pay.

Much more to come.

The company is run by some very smart people who know this industry inside out. Everything is being done for a reason.

The discussions with the FDA and other agencies/government bodies, at home trial, fundraising for phase 3, production of 100,000 treatments and discussions with partners - there is method behind all of these decisions.

I was actually just reading over the RNS on Placing and Open Offer again.

Even though it was only released just under 2 weeks ago, given what is happening in the world now with cases rising again, it's well worth re-reading.

The references to the FDA,EMA and NIHR make it clear that everyone who matters is aware of this trial and the potential implications.

"On 14 October 2020 the Company was informed by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) that the Phase III trial has been badged in the UK as Urgent Public Health and will be recognised as a National Priority study. Notwithstanding this, the commencement of the trial will still be subject to normal regulatory and ethical approvals."

I suspect there will be a lot happening in November and December. Everyone wants and needs this to be a success.

Also worth noting that although the IND to FDA usually takes 30 days,this can be shortened.

"Upon receipt of an IND application, FDA will notify the sponsor of the date it receives the application through an IND acknowledgment letter.

An IND application may go into effect:

30 days after FDA receives the application, unless FDA notifies the sponsor that the investigations described in the application are subject to a Clinical Hold; or

on earlier notification by FDA that the clinical investigations in the IND may begin. "

I'm the same WPA.

I don't expect there to be a lot of movement on the SP until there is more news to be announced. We may move 10-20% or so either way of the current SP but news could drop at anytime and then anything could happen. I wouldn't want to be sitting with nothing if/when the SP takes off.

Hopefully you're right - early approval could save lives and secondary to that obviously be good for us shareholders.

Even if phase 3 isn't as successful as phase 2 (no reason why it shouldn't be, but just hypothetically speaking) even a 60,50, or 40% reduction in severe cases would be an amazing result and would surely be more than enough for approval.

Eva - if I remember rightly the RNS made reference to an application to the FDA being made in November - I think that news would see the price increase before December.

Hopefully a peer review or update on the home trial before Christmas would be nice too.

Thanks Goose.

Yep, some of the links on this board have been invaluable.

Fully intend to try and see this one through now after doing much more research. Normally I would have sold at 206 after the Placing but there is going to be a lot happens over the coming weeks and months. If things don't go as we all hope then I will lose a bit of money but this has the potential to be a once in a lifetime share I think if things go to plan.

That's how I feel. I see a loss and want to sell straight away or see a profit and want to bank it.

The next few months will be a test for me!

As a relatively new investor I was always sceptical when people talked about the market being positioned etc (I don't want to say manipulated).

However, what I am seeing today is so strange. The share price not moving at all on IG and only seeing sales coming through. Suspicious......

The RNS makes reference to a partner, so a takeover would not be out of the question.

Synairgen obviously keep in contact with Astrazenica as there have been a few references in previous slide shows and presentations I have seen.

It's all guess work at this stage though. All we can hope is things continue to progress well. Whether SNG then need to sell or go alone, in that scenario the world has something positive to celebrate in the fight against Covid and we all have some extra £££ in our ppclets.