Member Info for Couerdelion

Further clarification. The earlier figure allowed that the £2m raise from the broker option. The question of whether we can take advantage of this is dependent on whether the relevant broker is linked in. In other words, it is for active shareholders to contact their broker to show an interest. A secondary question is knowing how to deal with warrants.

Correction - allowing for the value of warrants, price would be 14.9p

To give an indication of the materiality of the option value, if we simply calculate the post-raise SP, the current price of 16.25p reduces to 16.2p - and we can all carry on as if nothing has happened.

If we reduce the MV for the price in the value of the warrants (at 8p per share), it reduces to 14.2p

There are no "deals" here. The business sells advisory services to higher education institutions looking to monetise technological breakthroughs. Two products on sale, one to provide an assessment report ($950/report) on the idea and one to recruit people to turn it into a commercial product. It's niche so well protected but this also limits the market.

There's plenty of scope here for profits - too early to say much about how big that will be but there are plenty predicting this will be in excess of my top estimate of 240p. For me the biggest risk is over governance due to the link to TEK. Share dilution comes with the territory for investors in TEK companies.

Let's find out what the Broker Option is being used for. I'd snap these up if they were available to other investors let alone if they were available to private investors. On a simple BS model, the option is worth around 8p so in practice the new investors are getting shares for 8p plus 8p for the warrant.

How would quarterly dividends help the share price? It won't change the dividends; it will only defer half of the payment for 3 months.

We'll probably hear more on Roan by the end of March but if the trial run works well enough then you'd imagine they would shift all 45kt/month of their capacity to the higher grade material for production of 8.6kt per annum - Leon seemed to imply from the $30m valuation of the 200kt supply that they would recover 1.6% copper.

What I don't know is what price they pay for future 1.6% material though I imagine that is commercially sensitive information.

Wrong metric sorry - should have been 5x surplus generation, not profit. From the RNS

"In the 12 months to 31 December 2024, US protection and 20% of the US PRT business are expected to generate c. £350-400m of Operational Surplus Generation".

The downside highlighted in the times was the profitability of the US business but the RNS stated that this was sold at over 5 times net profit and at a £1m accounting profit.

Add to the £2bn buyback fund, you also have another 5% of the business being acquired by Meiji over time. For my money, the price of 240p looks quite cheap and comes with an 8.5% dividend to boot. Much as I will measure this stock by the dividend yield, there looks to be a decent upside here now.

Looks like we might reasonably expect a production upgrade in the coming months. If they can wait until mid-April, that would be ideal for me as it would let me put part of it into my ISA. I would like to get it in there sub-5p though time will tell whether this is wishful thinking.

I recognise that others here would like something sooner but I can only council patience to let things play out and the rewards will follow. FWIW, the IRH deal is all well and good and looks like it might change the sentiment but it's more beneficial from a funding perspective - putting up modules in Zambia will then beg the question where the power is coming from to turn it into additional copper production.

Https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/content/3697d83a-fbf6-57f2-898a-4457194338c4

TEP gets the vote as their favoured utility stock.

If you're wondering, my own answer to the earlier question is a firm "No".

Is this a good time to buy BELL?

You, like me, have got until 8pm tomorrow to decide.

Brockwl, they are using around 2/3rds of the current capacity of Roan to process the new material probably initially to confirm the copper content. This gives 6-7 mths of material before allowing them to trigger the option for further material although I don't recall seeing how much of this was in the option.

The thing about flexible production lines is that you can always have trial runs on new material. Higher grade will always be better but when you get new material, you don't want to put all your eggs in one basket only to find there are other problems in the production process.

Another opportunity to top up at bargain prices for which perhaps I can thank the negative sentiment. The interview reinforced my view that this was an accretive deal and if I chose not to add to my early morning post, I'll claim under oath that I had said all I had to say, and was happy for the market to throw a hissy fit for a short while. To reiterate what I said, this deal has such a short payback period that it really a no-brainer and we should be more angry if the company had failed to secured the higher grade material (including future options). I failed to take account of costs and taxes but I still would argue we are looking at 2-3mths payback for 6 months worth of material.

More generally, I feel this message Board has a tendency to "micro-manage" the company, seeking all sorts of information and fretting that the lack of information was likely to mean bad news. That may be down to personal experience and I don't disregard market sentiment. But I would argue this approach is not in the interest of the company or its shareholders. As shareholders we have to rely on executive management to do that and on the BoD to act in our interests. Running commentary on operations is a diversion of management time and Leon, to his credit, has resisted calls for monthly production updates. If that fail to do that, this is simply a risk that shareholders have to bear and we get to have our say when voting on Board resolutions. Those that don't trust management, shouldn't be invested here.

Plenty of good news here. Dilution is fairly trivial and if my numbers are correct, is covered by around a month's worth of profit from the processing.

Been another good day in MKS. Finally in the money on my January buy but I think I'll hold on for a bit more.

All the big pharma companies have a sizeable US production footprint. I'd judge the bigger risk from Trump is through arbitrary judicial rulings but that also happens under democrat government.

The warrants can be exercised at any time at the 77p and 84p levels. The £1.30 and £1,60 figures are price levels which will trigger a shortening of the exercise window.

But they also hold a value to warrant holders - a value which comes out of SALT. A rough calculation using an option pricing model suggest that the two options are worth 25-30p to the holders.