Member Info for Couerdelion

If we assume the market is looking to price the shares on a post-placing basis the option value looks to be around 6p. It feels almost a no-brainer to take up the Retail offer of a share for 16p with an option since you're getting the two (14p share plus 6p option) at a 20% discount.

Now just to decide how much to go for as I think it is safe to assume it will be oversubscribed.

Something about higher UK defence spending. BAE up c5%

Something to read in more detail later. Or maybe I'll just wait for the IC write up to trawl through the numbers and update to reflect sale of part of their holding in SALT.

And it looks like there is some serious buying going on this morning.

Nice price for a little top up..

Target dividend yield is 9%. Though I think there's a little more that I can squeeze out of this share with a bit of patience.

Jimjam,

Markets take news of dividend cuts very badly. Even with a "good story", the narrative will be overwhelmed with comments that the company profits are so weak as to be unable to support shareholder payouts or support any debt raise to invest in the business.

It's almost as if the market - I use the term quite loosely - is pricing the shares equal to the average of the 16p placing price and the 11p option strike price to come up with 13.5p per share. To me it looks like a false market which might disappear in two weeks once the results of the Broker Option are finalised.

Participating in the Broker Option will carry risks. The reply I got from AJ Bell was more equivocal

"We may be able to participate in this public placing but this is not guranteed, you will need to have an agreement with the company brokers Fox-Davies for a purchase of the shares and an amount, you can then call us on 0345 54 32 600 Option 1 to place the trade for the public placing.

You will need confirmation of the amount of shares you a purchasing in the placement from the company broker alongside a name and a contact number for our dealers to call to place the placing, you will need this confirmation and information to take place in placing through AJ Bell, once you have this please give us a call.

We do typically support holding of warrants on the platform.

This will be done on a best endeavours basis and there is no guarantee we will be able to facilitate this."

I don't think people have factored in all the risks associated with the Broker Warrants.

FYI, Trendz is talking nonsense.

That is pricey. What's more orders are likely to be scaled down to match supply and demand.

Much as we would like to blame judges - and please don't get me started on that - they can only apply the law as passed by parliament. If you want to adopt a legal system that interprets the law according to what was intended, you're looking at the European system which is not something I would want. Within the UK legal system, the biggest problem is that the legislation is too loosely worded allowing decisions to be made by the courts.

Get the legislation right, the courts will uphold it.

I may well invest here tomorrow for the dividend. Not quite my target yield but I can gain whichever way the share goes. If it rises, I can siphon off a bit of profit and get to the target yield with a smaller holding. If it falls, I can buy more at 9% yield and sell (hypothetical) the excess when the price rises.

What a lovely share this is!!!

So nothing for a shareholder to be particularly excited about.

Can someone explain to me what a scalper plant is?

If last year is anything to go by, the market appears to be quite slow to react to positive results. The SP dropped around 3% in the morning after the results giving me a cheap entry price. Look ahead a month and the price was up around 10%.

What does the market miss? Your guess is as good as mine but you've got an SP now that offers good short term potential and solid long term ones. It's a good long-term holding but you can add on the dips to give yourself a tidy little uplift to the dividend.

MT,

Do we know if new investors will be able to acquire the Broker Option shares? I agree that existing investors are better served retaining funds for those shares though worth noting that the options can only be exercised in the 1-4yr period after the shares are admitted.

I'd be happy to see updates to some aspects of the PFS before end March simply for there to be a positive drip feed of information for the stock. I don't know how the market will react to a step change in SP up to 30p - 15p in old money - so anything to nudge it upwards will make the subsequent jump easier to digest.

But yes, it's the CEOL and the PFS which are the key inflexion points. I don't know if ASK listing is now more of a dampener because it hasn't been done yet.

There's your higher bid. At face value this looks like a tidy fit.

Another tidy day for GNIP. A few pricier sells at the end of play so all set for a continuation of the rise.

After a little more reflection, I think we can afford to be a little more bullish. Since the broker option is targeted at PIs, the discounting effect of the cost of the options attaching to the £2.4m capital raise should be offset by the £2m potentially available to PIs. Furthermore, the SP itself seems to have been repeatedly hit by an anticipated discount from the ASX listing, but it was implied yesterday that there would be no discount. At the same time, the required capital raise from ASX is now likely to be lower.

All of this seems to have added to the disconnect between the price of the share and any reasonable fair value. But now that the company has cash to spare, I think it has the space to go on a little run.

You need to own the shares at the end of the day before ex-div date in order to qualify for the dividend.

I'm not over the moon today if that's what you mean but I don't have any fears for next week. Markets can get a little twitchy around results time but there's plenty of examples where share prices have surged post-results to suggest that the trading doesn't reflect insider knowledge.

Of course, if you think that a company like BAE is morally wrong that's fine but I doubt they will be invested here to start with.