Member Info for Couerdelion

Eyes wide open on the risks here but I think I can safely disregard lazy stereotypes and stick with my view that we have too much upside here to ignore. Of all the countries in South America you'd look to invest in, Chile is the star pupil.

Looks very cheap today. Nothing I can see from the news today explains why they dropped suddenly so I can only assume it related to sentiment spilling over from the US.

All I'll say is that the price today was too tempting to pass up so took an overweight position - which I will unwind when it reaches 1390p and I will keep the profit in shares.

No downgrades from the analysts so no cause for alarm here at the recent drop. Those concerned about the direction of the company could easily have taken back their money in December when they were at 1600p.

Daltry, please give us the benefit of your experience from working in Chile....

I understood from the deal that LDG were getting shares - I didn't see any cash option.

As for distributions, we have one coming up quite soon as a result of the repayment of the Loan Notes.

Only 60% upside. If I had thought that was all I would get here, I would have sold the minute the shares reached double figures.

Sumo, the waste material project is just the "icing on the cake" here. None of the optimism I hear on this board are banking anything for that - it's all in the current "organic" production - with a discount to boot.

The warrants have an option value which can be split between inherent value (difference between share price and strike price) and time value. At a share price of 14p, the value of the option (maturing in 4 years) is roughly 50:50 split between the two. If I recall correctly, you don't exercise one of these variable-maturity-date options until the final date except when there is a dividend.

I'd be surprised if the combined take up of the Broker Option and the Retail Option doesn't comfortably exceed the £2m limit and have scaled my bid to around 2x the amount I need to avoid dilution.

Share price is looking cheap again so I took the opportunity to buy the shares that I sold last month.

So do we think the 2m share trade today was for Mr Myers?

I took the profits on the shares I bought last week. It was too good an opportunity to pass up on. I may well buy them back if the price retreats a bit and if recent history is anything to go by, I wouldn't be surprised if they are back in my GIA within a month.

Jds, there is some merit in the "separate boards" idea but can't see any benefit in it other than to remove the sort of "incoherent rage" posts that traders are prone to when the SP moves down. But to lose the daily link to the minds of the traders is perhaps to miss an important factor and better to have that here than find that we miss a factor that sees the SP drop 25% suddenly.

Whether long term investors should engage with traders is a different question, particularly when they drift off topic. Unless there is a sensible discussion on the merits of the company or the medium term SP performance, there's little to be gained talking about a trader's losses. As you surmise, the interests of longer-term holders and short-term holders diverge at times.

If you are buying now, you'd be getting in cheaper than my latest top-up. The shares now look a little cheap but I can't say that they won't be cheaper.

Sumo,

Of the 70k generated at Munkoyo, you have 8.5k of high-grade (2.5% copper) material which is processed at Sable. The rest is low-grade (0.7% copper) of the variety that was planned for processing at Roan. I got this from one of the Investor Meet presentations.

Probably right. If Trump is now blaming Ukraine for starting the war and calling Zelenskyy a dictator, geopolitical uncertainty has been ramped up to 11. That's money in the bank for holders of defence stocks.

My only problem now is that I might have too much. Might be tempted to take a little profit if it struggles to break the 1400 resistance level.

Shareswot,

It's just Kalan's simple valuation approach and probably more useful as a personal benchmark for measuring cheapness rather than a broader SP target price. If I understand the origins, the more elaborate model showing revenue v costs for each metal isn't helped when the cost side of the equation is so opaque in the published accounts.

Not to my personal taste because it ignores chrome and platinum which will continue to represent a large part of the revenue and you'd want to understand the margins on copper rather than leave the margins on the other metals to cover all the investment on the copper side. But that's not what the metric is for - as Kalan will undoubtedly say.

Dividends are not paid out of debt but out of cash released from the life companies. There's a chart in the YE presentation showing how cash generation is used to support dividend, debt etc which anyone who wants to understand the business would be well advised to look at.

Accounting profits/losses here are largely just noise and should generally be ignored. IFRS17 is a nice little earner for the accountants but of little practical use for the investor. If there is one key metric here it is Shareholder Own Funds which will be shown net of debt. That figure shows the underlying shareholder value in the company; at HY24 it was £8.6bn

They might do, but I decided to take a few £ profits today and sold c25% of my holding rather than play "double or quits" with the results and how these might be received by the market.

If last year is anything to go buy, a set of good results tomorrow doesn't necessarily mean the price moves up. But I expect results to be "moderate" to "strong" and the market to dip at outset giving me the opportunity to buy back lower and save a bit on capital gains tax

Is there any publicly available breakdown of this NAV by investment? We can all work out the values from publicly traded stocks but do we know the breakdown of the $64m in the RNS

Sumoskier, it's a depressing thought if you mean Q4 on a calendar year basis rather than JLP reporting year. But those new shares are a drop in the ocean when compared to the institutional selling we've seen recently. If the price is up once they are free to sell, it will be a momentary blip in the SP trajectory.

Fundamentally, the business is profitable and the share price is disconnected from the level of profitability. Once the overhang is exhausted, MMs can only sell what shares they can buy and judging by what I hear on this board about acceptable prices in potential takeover deals, the price will move up when there isn't the same easy access to cheap shares.

I can only advise a little more patience. Perhaps add to that a little confidence too.