Member Info for Couerdelion

Fender, I've only been a LTH for about a year but I interpret the title as being about the longer term view of the prospects of the company and SP. For that reason I will trade around the margins with the intention of keeping any profits in extra shares to supplement the low dividend yield here.

And yes, I will be targeting around 15% gain on todays little trade (which translates into around 4% dividend on my overall holding) although I expect to earn this in less than 6 months.

On the matter of buybacks, I think PHNX is somewhat constrained by the need to reduce the leverage ratio. Buying back shares would reduce the denominator in that equation which would work against the stated goal to bring it down to 30% by YE2026.

Yeah, I picked up mine at 322p also so managed to steal a few more shares.

Thanks Fender :-)

Agreed, solid set of results with the standard 2.5% dividend increase and upgraded cash generation targets. There are some negatives I can see here but the big picture is the still the cash release and the discount of MV to Shareholder own funds (£8.4bn) remains excessive IMO

Fender, was there any news or data you picked up to change your mind? I looked at the fall and thought that the weekend would allow "wiser heads to prevail" which would point towards a time-limited opportunity. Is there something in the Asda news or wider stories that suggest a deeper fall?

Maybe one of the differences between traders and LTH. I don't need to get my money back within the week. ;-)

The screen is largely full of blue buys buy the price drops 10%. Do this mean there is an institutional seller here?

It's now in territory where I can go overweight again - target was 330p but we can split the difference on 1% when there's 10%+ upside to play with. How sweet does this get? - less than a week after trading out the last one for a free dividend of 1.5%, I have a weekend to decide whether or not to buy the shares back cheaper while still reducing (deferring) my CGT bill.

Trump has to be irrelevant here - someone will explain if I have missed something important - so I'm ready to go back in for a modestly overweight position.

If you still have half of the profit left in the shares, what's not to like. I was tempted to sell earlier today - my target was 1240p but I couldn't get it. Now that it has broken 1650p, I'm more inclined to leave things to run a little longer.

Spot on, gotreal. The profitability of the new material will no doubt be partially visible in the next update but the idea that this is some sort of window-dressing is a conspiracy theory too far - that there is some "under-the-counter" deal to ramp up production levels at the expense of profitability is not in keeping with my view of how this company operates.

Maybe the market is pricing in this level of cynicism but, for my money, it is still more about the persistent sellers. Once that has passed - and the wait is interminable - the SP has only one way to go.

Be patient - and then maybe wait some more. Selling at these prices makes no sense even on Kalan's crude model - which I should stress is more of a "floor" price than a valuation.

Baf3, if you can predict my posts, why can't you predict the behaviour of TEK management. It will be of benefit to us us.

"The company launched AI-enhanced services in September and has secured over 450 orders for technology assessments since their launch. This is up from 195 reported at the end of November."

Do these people not have calculators? First thing to note here is that they have sold more orders since their last report which is more or less saying that the company is still in business. But a surge? The "end of November" here was the RNS on 20-November so if you do the sums you'll see the rate of sales is lower in the period since their last update.

Nice to have friendly reporting though upbeat outlook is a rather predictable line in the world of TEK and investors know better than to bank on a positive spin here.

450 IE reports (including advance orders) in the period 01 September 2024 to 12 March (193 days). In the 80 days to 19 November they had 195. The daily rate of new reports appears to have decline in the period since the earlier update.

They look quite disappointing figures to me. And the figures for Vortechs don't seem to add up.

It does not inspire confidence.

Will be interesting to see what price they include in the PFS. The previous estimates assumed $22.5k/ton and valued Laguna Verde at an NPV of $1.8bn.

Current dividend yield is around 8.81% which is close enough for me.

The prices are looking a bit more tempting.

Is that a capital raise or an SP rise?

Dividend up helps the yield a bit but I expect it will not be until after ex-div date that I will be able to pick up a few more of these shares at 9%.

Unlucky. I think it might be on the verge of breaking through resistance.

Plenty to be positive about. Margins increasing, dividend doubled, EPS up 20% and pipeline up c40%. Slight decline in cash and revenue down (put down to a timing issue).

We'll see what the market thinks soon but at first glance the shares look on the cheap side.