Member Info for Couerdelion

Let's hope. For now this is just papering over paper losses so I'm richer today but it doesn't pay for the mooring fees on the yacht I don't yet own.

Finally managed to manufacture a 9% yield. Bought at 236p and sold at 249p (44% of original purchase) to average-down the price.

I think I might have to wait till it goes ex-div to complete the deal.

It's a good enough price for me if I get the chance to buy sub £10.

Do we know what caused it?

I suppose I should welcome all new investors, even ones who read Mail on Sunday. But it was a fleeting surge anyway so next keypoint will be the results.

Unsurprisingly, given the price, a low take up but I think the company won't be encouraged by the amount raised, and it is never a good sign for a capital raise to see a 7% take up given the clear sign it would otherwise make of demand for the shares. The positive for the SP is that future dilution is now much lower so there's a much weaker argument for the shares to revert to 11p simply because of the warrant strike price. As for funding requirements, they only needed the £2.4m to pay the bills for now but have an extra £140k for petty cash through to any ASX cash raise to pay off the loan and take them through to strategic investment.

Still 3 weeks before we get to hear the first big news story so buckle up.

We aren't talking about a hostile takeover here but an agreed deal. We'll get some cash and shares in ENQ which is probably not going to be at the 150p level because ENQ are also trading at low levels. You're not going to get full value for SQZ shares because ENQ shares are at depressed levels so best to consider how the deal affects your overall value, rather than the "price".

There was a large impairment cost (around 14% of NAV) but the company is already trading at a large discount to NAV and the cashflow here is strong with margins improving.

Here's the IC write up: https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/content/c079a526-d961-5878-aa11-6e9d2f8179a3

POORS, I would not go that far - unless you did mean to type "rejuice" rather than "reduce". Getting a larger player to fund processing capacity will be great for JLP and no reason there has to be any dilution.

If there is a downside it is the potential distraction for management but I don't get the impression from their investor meets or from recent RNS's that this is happening.

Forgot to add. I'll be buying this if it dips below £10, but I don't think I will be that lucky.

"Close to the bottom" is good enough even for traders. For long term investors it's simply "cheap", "cheaper" or "cheapest" and, while I prefer to get shares as cheap as possible, "cheap" is a better strategy to avoid missing the boat.

Well your buying towards the close to the cheapest point for a share guided to produce consensus earnings with an undemanding forward PE or under 16 and valued by analysts at around 40% higher than the current SP (with 7 out of 9 giving it a "Strong Buy") recommendation. Once they confirm the news to move to the main market, the institutional buyers will be lining up to buy - far outweighing the effect of private investors rushing to save on IHT (which will probably be largely gone by the time they die). And you save on the 0.5% share purchase tax while it's AIM.

For balance, I'm trying to find something here that's not to like but the best I can find is that the technical indicates are not screaming "buy".

Full disclosure, I've been buying in moderate quantities this year and consider my holding to be overweight. I plan to recover my last investment when the SP reaches 1390 (here I keep my profits in shares)

We now seem to be bumping up against a technical resistance level at 300p. It did the same thing last year and then went on to rise steadily before surging up on the Kuwait deals.

Anyone for a repeat performance?

Added some more today at 562p (after another top-up last week at 611p) and I may just have struck the sweet spot. I don't want to stay overweight for too long but happy to carry them at this price at least through to results. I'm used to these trading in the 660p+ range and expect they will be back there in the spring.

We may potentially have something like £4m of dividends getting reinvested here in the next few days.

Couldn't it have waited just a few more weeks so that I could shelter some of the bumper gains from CGT?

Or am I getting ahead of myself?

The only problem with this analysis is that the 50-day moving average is below the 200-day moving average. But it works if "short-term" means one or two days.

Another fairly clear update from Gordon and Daniel. A couple of key snippets.

CEOL response end March (as expected)

PFS provided c. Mid April (a small delay)

Starting work in next weeks to refine the Lithium carbonate process to provide the battery grade material for off-takers.

ASX listing is being pushed back until the key deliveries are in (CEOL and PFS)

Everything has been funded now with the recent raise so no reason to rush the ASX listing

There is no sound reason for the price to be tethered to a option strike price of 11p. All that means is that there is a potential dilution coming up but since we know how much is there, we can factor that into the share price but not to the point that the share price can't exceed 11p. Simply work out what the price is before dilution then factor in the new money and shares to figure out a post-dilution price.

Crudely the price allowing for dilution should be 11p + (Undiluted price - 11p) * 80%

Agreed. Fantasy DCF approaches are all well and good but PE ratio works fine enough as a valuation metric here. The only forward looking metric we have is for a limited period in the first few weeks of the year which may well have been extrapolated within the models to precipitate the fall today and in January. At less than 14x, the PE ratio is not particularly challenging for a business that can show earnings growth of 10% p.a.

The company may not be doing itself any favours in the metrics it uses but maybe someone else can explain why they show like-for-like growth separately from new store openings.

You can always buy IAG and forget out JET2 is that's the comparison.

Was looking to take another punt today but didn't get the price I wanted. But I got lucky and the price should be there tomorrow.