Member Info for Computer909

@BigBangs: I for one am not fussed with what is happening with the DHSC contract, if you read the contract and look at the likely timeline for new test demand from the government, in my opinion Omega are getting the best out of a bad situation. Its the rest of the companies capacity that worries me, We have pictures of boxes of Abc-19 test, but no news of orders, we have a seperate commercial launch of the Visitect Antigen test, but not even an announcement on a distribution channel, and no news on any of the other tests we are reportedly making, And strangely no updates from the company

@BigBangs: All good points we all wait to see what the usage rate is over the coming weeks/months will be , but based on the current burn rate we are getting no where near the 2M a day usage rate, and even if we do get to somewhere near that figure the innova / surescreen stockpile will see the government through to September at least. I do expect the government to review the free tests for companies date and extend it, simply because they aren't using the purchased tests at the expected rate.

"increases expected by HMG once we fully open up and get back to work."

https://www.gov.uk/get-workplace-coronavirus-tests

The deadline for registering to order free rapid lateral flow tests was 12 April 2021.
You can order free rapid lateral flow tests until 30 June 2021.

Exactly what makes you say the HMG are expecting increases in testing ?

@BigJock: You attack people for lack of research, and needing patience, but who was it that said

On here in April : "imagine how long it would take to actually build a factory... that’s once they have purchased land and had planning permission etc etc etc ... say 2024. Omega would have cleaned up by then"

In May on Twitter :

"This shows the ineptitude of the @DHSCgovuk
- #ODX are STILL waiting on a test, it’s been months and at this rate, Innova will have the tests being manufactured in the U.K. before the government contract goes live."

"but hoping Walbrooke or ODX read these messages"

You as a shreholder, are ultimately who they are responsible to (although you wouldn't think it by the way they treat us), Contact them directly with your concerns and see what they say, will be interested to here there response if you feel like sharing

@gkb47: 3 months, the structure of this lemon of a contract was probably known about on 21st November 2020, when the letter of intent was signed, the issue is that the ideal outcome for the DHSC is that we don’t actually manufacture any tests for them

"The £374m figure represents a maximum of the contract's potential value. Care should be taken not to use this number as an estimated value of purchase orders."

@Goonerboy1: And exactly have you contributed to the discussion :

"More positive RNS’s from Ncyt and MHC but here nothing. I have kept the faith here and still balls deep but it is getting worrying now. Shambolic comms and PR"

"Where the f**k is Colin. It is getting worrying."

"Yet we still have silence. Colin take note and learn from these guys. Get your finger out your ar*e and get an update out."

Its clear you have carried out a detailed research of the situation

@djm1: 400M in 7 weeks would require a rate of 57M a week, with a UK population of 66.6M that seems unlikely, even if we assume 100M have been used since January that still means 42M+ a week need to be used.

If there was any chance of running out in 7-8 weeks and the documented TT expectation was 8-11 weeks do we not think even this government would have made a test selection already, if that was the case we would have been Transfering the surescreen test over a month ago.

The DHSC is a "lights on" contract for ODX, foreign commercial sales are the opportunity which needs to be targeted as soon as possible

@BigBangs: Unfortunately the consumption rate of the innova NHS test has started to drop off in the last month

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/weekly-statistics-for-nhs-test-and-trace-england-13-may-to-19-may-2021/weekly-statistics-for-rapid-asymptomatic-testing-in-england-13-may-to-19-may-2021

We wait to hear on other large scale usage opportunities (Football, concerts etc) that may impact that rate.

With regards to "inferior Chinese" tests, as far as Joe Bloggs is concerned they are NHS tests and PHE have made a big case for their validity.

@djm1: "Why would you pay money to keep a facility sat idle when you require what they produce?"

Because they already have a stockpile of 400M to burn through, at the current rate, they wont need to call in the ODX capacity until at least June 2022.

@djm1: "The pandemic has shown what untested theoretical systems are good for, nothing. Tried and stress tested systems are what's required."

You make a case that the DHSC equipment commissioned and staffed ready to go is what is needed, thats the clear view of the DHSC as well (as per the contract), there is no doubt a sovereign test will be selected eventually and we will TT (if necessary) the test, but the question is will there ever be any purchase orders for actual tests, or will ODX DHSC equipment just provide a warm fuzzy feeling for someone in Whitehall that knows it can be called upon if necessary, the difference between the £50M "ensuring capacity" and the £374M supplying tests.

@Tricymatters: The discussion was around what does they increase in staff actually tell us regarding ODX activities, and that Colin would need to be stupid to increase the amount of staff without additional revenue streams, the point i am making is that the DHSC contract provides (and actually requires) the increase in staffing levels and is covered in the contract payments, it doesn't mean that ODX are secretly doing any other activities that what they have already informed us abou.

@djm1: "what kind of man does that?"

What kind of man takes 18% margin on a £50M over two years contract (£4.5M a year profit) when his company made a £2.2M loss in the last 12 Months, some would say a pretty shrewd one !

@djm1: Have you even read the DHSC contract, Omega are contractually obliged to

i) produce an implementation plan that includes the recruitment of the necessary staff to commission and operate the DHSC equipment

i) Report against this implementation plan on a regular basis.

ODX have already stated they are able to flex using agency staff

Phase one equipment installation and commissioning was due to be completed at the end of May.

I have previously had a detailed discussion with Walbrook regarding one of the ODX tweets that said they were contracted to "ensure" uk supply and what that actually meant in reality, the DHSC only interest at the moment is that they can call on capacity if needed, and thats what ODX are doing, £50M over 2 years is of little significance to this government to have guaranteed uk capacity

@djm1: Its not rinsing the DHSC, just read the contract rather spouting your own BS.

Pre-payment funding supports: Supporting recruitment and training of staff required for manufacturing of LFT, so that there is sufficient trained people available at the required capacity for the installation and running of the manufacturing capability

@djm1: "why would they do that?"

18% margin on any staff costs attributable to the DHSC contract

@BigBangs: The issue is that the test sample is not collected with the LFT test, where as with the PCR test the sample is in the lab, so positive tests can be sequenced as needed, its not the fact that the PCR test will spot the variant, simply that the sample is available.

@BigBangs: The biggest concern for the government at the moment is the increase in Covid variants, LFTs aren't going to help with identifying the variants, so PCR is here to stay so the genome sequencing rate can be maintained.

Still no update on actual capacity commissioning being completed, for the last couple of months they couldn't bang the 'capacity' drum any louder, now when they should have confirmed figures, more radio silence. Looks like June could be the next May, April, March, Feb, Jan, Dec, Nov .....

No Chat because Colin and Walbrook has sucked the sentiment from the market time and time again, something could happen, but no one really believes it will happen any time soon.