Member Info for Computer909

The 2m tests a week “capacity” the government have secured, is Imo the steady state burn rate they have calculated they will need to keep the testing regime going once the situation stabilises, but how much of the 400m stockpile will get used and at what rate is the £374m question

@wadogara: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/weekly-statistics-for-nhs-test-and-trace-england-6-may-to-12-may-2021/weekly-statistics-for-rapid-asymptomatic-testing-in-england-6-may-to-12-may-2021

The usage in schools has dropped off dramatically, and less than 8 weeks of the school year left, we wait to hear news on whether mass gathering will require prior testing , and with the likes of Spain not requiring testing pre travel, the burn rate over the coming months in uncertain

@Linton78, you really are one hell of a specialist, thanks for your opinion, all welcome here, it must take a special kind of expert to be so insightful

@Bedhead, if that was true we would have needed to have a test selected and tech transfer started 5 weeks ago, unfortunately in the real world the stockpile is unlikely to be exhausted this year, if not until h2/ 2022

Commercial sales outside of the uk is what we need, phase2 of the dHSC contract is a year away

“THEY WILL BE USED IN THEIR HUNFREDS OF MILLIONS IMO”

Well we know the uk government have stockpiled at least 400m, with a current burn rate of less than 6m a week

The only news we are expecting in the next couple of weeks is the completion of the commissioning phase of the government equipment as per the contract detail. beyond that we could be into 2022 before we hear from the government again with regards the phase 2 demand.

Talk about the next two weeks producing any news related to the DHSC contract is wishful thinking.

"if ODX don’t deliver what they have been saying publicly"

Is that happy Colin, "Big Things happening at Alva, We will deliver 2M tests in April ", or sad Colin, "Don't order your Tesla" ?

"otherwise they’d be shouting about it from the rooftop"

Omega have refused to answer the simple questions

"Have we actually “Delivered” any tests that are wholly manufactured by Omega, throughout April?"

"Are you actually able to say with honesty that Omega have delivered a single manufactured in Alva test to a paying customer in April?

They have switched to radio silence as an approach to investor relations, Is anyone else getting responses from any queries made by the proper channels?

@redboy33: no response from Walbrook all week, usually get a response of some sort within a few days , but nothing since “tesla gate”

@Bigjock36 : "CD4 sales (Which they justified as the placing price with no Covid sales)"

The placing document included "exploiting the covid-19 opportunity" so not sure the non-covid sales did justify the placing price ?

https://www.standard.co.uk/business/government-covid-private-contracts-30-billion-pwc-deloitte-british-airways-b933081.html

Posted on the ABDX board, full list of pandemic based suppliers

"Yes but that doesn’t prove there won’t be further contracts of £1.2b given to Innova does it ?"

Well it doesn't, but i'm sure there would be an outcry if the ODX/GAD "capacity" wasn't used in full before another innova order was placed, but then again it is Bojo and the gang so anything is possible

Maybe for the world Jenga championship that Colin is organising usiung all the Abc-19 tests that we made on the "expectation" of orders ?

"What’s happening with big things are happening ?"

Have you not seen the new carpark ?

@DM83, Its very difficult to find details on the actual stock that has been orders, it seems to range from 380M or more

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/28/how-uk-spent-800m-on-controversial-covid-tests-for-dominic-cummings-scheme

“Daniel Elliott, Innova’s chief executive, told the Guardian that his company was dispatching about 4.5m tests a day to the UK before Christmas, and anticipated it would be scaling this up to 15m a day by the end of January.”

https://eminetra.co.uk/how-uk-spent-800m-on-controversial-covid-tests-for-dominic-cummings-scheme-world-news/253703/

innova Medical Group is now believed to be the largest single recipient of payments from UK government contracts during the pandemic. More than 380m Innova tests have been bought so far by the UK government, but now a fierce debate is raging among scientists about how they should be used.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/british-manufacturer-surescreen-diagnostics-to-supply-20-million-rapid-lateral-flow
https://www.surescreen.com/news/prime-minister-visits-surescreen

20m from Surescreen

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/987972/tests_conducted_2021_05_20.ods

Total usage to date approx 75M

@DM83, its not a deramp its just figures which explain why the DHSC are in no hurry to choose a test and place purchase orders, with 7M per week usage rate (which is likely to drop off when students don't have to take 2 a week, but could be supplemented by the entertainments industry, so lets assume 7M so 364M a week), DHSC contract states an estimated 8-11 weeks for any Tech transfer, so 77M usage during Tech transfer

January 2021 stockpile was 580M, so no need for DHSC to call on our standby capacity until June 2022, if everything stays the same. DHSC contract is a lemon, phase 1 will earn us the minumum £50M @18% so £4.5M a year, anything beyond that is not going to happen anytime soon, the talk of DHSC orders arriving in the next two weeks just makes no sense.

Commercial orders need to be the priority.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/weekly-statistics-for-nhs-test-and-trace-england-6-may-to-12-may-2021/weekly-statistics-for-rapid-asymptomatic-testing-in-england-6-may-to-12-may-2021

Early May burn rate plateau at around 5M per week.

updated stats ..

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/weekly-statistics-for-nhs-test-and-trace-england-22-april-to-28-april-2021/weekly-statistics-for-rapid-asymptomatic-testing-in-england-22-april-to-28-april-2021

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/weekly-statistics-for-nhs-test-and-trace-england-1-april-to-7-april-2021/weekly-statistics-for-rapid-asymptomatic-testing-in-england-1-april-to-7-april-2021

There is no getting away from the issue there is no urgency from the government to secure more tests (380M innova & 200M surescreen) with a burn rate in April dropping to below 5M per week, Commitment from the government is to secure the 2M per week "capacity" nothing more than that, actual purchase orders for tests could be way off yet, towards the end of the year, if they come at all.

"Better silence than the NCYT RNS this morning!"

Well with the NCYT and ABDX disputes with the DHSC, lets hope that CK has got a grip on the situation and the DHSC don't make it three from three.