Member Info for Computer909

@Sledgey121 , lets examine some of the news from ODX and look if they are all true?

1/2 : Capacity to produce approx. 2m tests per week by end of April

12/2 : Signs DHSC contract with capacity delivery date end of May

16/2 & 17/2: This April, we'll deliver 2m rapid LFTs a week.

30/4 : We fully expect, once we have The Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC)'s licensed test confirmation, to rapidly move towards full utilisation of our 2m tests per week capacity.

30/4: We've made huge strides towards establishing a lateral flow production capacity of ˜2 million tests per week from our Alva HQ. Achieving that target, and (more importantly) full *utilisation* of capacity is dependent on the DHSC confirming their selected test.

5/5: A final decision has yet to be made on which test or tests the UK Government will choose…

So which day do you choose to believe is true ?

So in February we will have 2M capacity by the end of april and delivering 2M tests a week in April. (when in reality the DHSC contract signed a day after they knew the 1M capacity was contractually targeted at end of May

We get into April we now get, no test selected yet, and by the way full utilisation is dependent on that selection?

Simple logic and timelines demonstrate the contradictions

"it’s a case of do we believe you or the company"

Its not a case of do we believe the company, its a case of when do we believe the company, so many contradictions in their news feeds, the narrative changes each day

"Personally, if there is a good deal to be had and placing is needed to fund it, then so be it"

I thought we were getting a good deal, to "take advantage of the Covid opportunity" in the placing last year, why on earth would we give him another cent ?

@TWatcher, Does the German FIND study not meet the validation requirements, i assume it does and Mologic will appear on the list when it is next updated.

@upomega, their social media feed is an embarrassment, there is the obvious Tesla tweet, but that was just the latest, remember the “only picture colin was willing to approve”, boxes of Abc19 test ready to go, but go where, to whom, for how much, little titbits of info to keep us all on the line, stockpiling or ordered, paid for or wishful thinking, half-truths that don’t add up to the full story when you take everything into consideration

Not sure i agree with you with regards to the performance on the top team, the way they manage comms just destroys the company’s credibility with investors, they issue half-truths at best, lies at worse, and change like wind when it suits their agenda, Thats my opinion but respect yours is different.

What we need is a number of prime distributors, that have the contacts in the EU/US. Without those on the table quickly we wont get any traction at all, in the current market its no good for ODX to sit back and hope clients will come to them, I really expected them to have at least something of that type to announce on commercial launch , what was the point of a separate commerial launch date if they had nothing further to announce after CE mark?

@upomega: EU population 450m, USA population 330m, UK population 66m, with to issues we have in the uk with getting any market traction, the EU/USA has to be priority markets

Or do we think the FIND study meets criteria C?

So based on the three requirements to get on the list

(a) Carry CE marking;
(b) Meet the minimum performance requirements of = 90% sensitivity and = 97% specificity; and
(c) Have been validated by at least one Member State as being appropriate for their use in the context of COVID-19, providing details on the methodology and results of such studies, such as the sample type used for validation, the setting in which the use of the test was assessed, and whether any difficulties occurred as regards the required sensitivity criteria or other performance elements.

Do we take it no Eu country has validated the Mologic test in the 5 months since it was CE marked?

@Eazy 30th April, has some details around capacity figures, and does actually say they are producing tests in Alva (but no figures on actual production), and i cant see any mention of a single sale?

"The Company has made good progress towards establishing a lateral flow production capacity of approximately two million tests per week from its Alva facility in Scotland. The completion of that capacity target, and more importantly full utilisation of this capacity, is dependent on the confirmation above from the UK Government. In the meantime, Omega is currently using its own capacity to produce its own tests and following today’s launch, the Company expects, together with the test to be licensed from the UK Government as above, to rapidly move towards full utilisation of its capacity of 2 million test per week.

From its site in Alva the Company is currently producing VISITECT® CD4 Advanced Disease tests, AbC-19TM COVID-19 Rapid Antibody tests and, following launch, the VISITECT® COVID-19 Antigen test."

@sledgey121 : "ODX are producing and selling loads!"

An official statement from ODX to this extent would blow away all the speculation don't you think?, Why don't we have one ?

@Ad4you : If you believe the BigJock feedback from Colin, the up-ramp in ODX staff is being achieved by the use of agency staff

@Bedhead "£374m at 50% ...in 1 year = £187m profit"

I'm not so sure on your calculation?

Lets assume the minimum £50M covers phase 1 (because thats their commitment up to now) so we pocket the £4.5M a year, happy days !

As i said the remaining £324M (over two years) which is £162M a year, not sure we have seen anything regarding margin for the DHSC contract, but lets assume your 50%, thats £81M, so £85M best case profit per year, not £187M, and that is with the big assumption we will get orders (380M innova + 200M surescreen stockpile to burn first)

ODX need to concentrate on Visitect sales and forget the DHSC that contract is a lemmn.

"So the LFT companies are gambling the house in the hope of phase two?"

Omega made a £2.3M loss last year, phase1 of the DHSC contract is worth £50M revenue over 2 years with a margin of 18%, that is £4.5M a year profit, thats not a gamble for ODX its sound business sense and is transformational for the business, but the rest of the revenue only arrives if they need the tests, Colin knows this and hence his continual hold on the hysteria.

@djm1: "So why the contracts"

The government has clearly stated they don't want to buy foreign tests any more and want a sovereign test, that is not is dispute, but they have only ever stated they will have capacity to produce, and thats exactly what the ODX contract states, commissioning of the loan equipment to be complete by the end of May 2021. That is phase 1 of the contract and the only commitment they have made, everything else is dependent to the UK demand for LFT testing.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/weekly-statistics-for-nhs-test-and-trace-england-22-april-to-28-april-2021/weekly-statistics-for-rapid-asymptomatic-testing-in-england-22-april-to-28-april-2021

@Bigbangs: We know this already its in the contract

"The supplier will support the preparation and accreditation of tests for home use and separately to meet MHRA “self-test” regulations."

Well at least they didn't say imminent this time !

@Furey: "They think because they write things down on here its true"

SP23 Apr 2021 09:39
Ready to Blooooooowww

SP on 23 April @75.75, Hows that looking now Chico