Member Info for chilting

A slight last minute hitch - AK has rotated away from AS - just a short delay I think.

It will take quite a bit of investment to ramp up to produce a range of granular mixes similar to the ICL range.

ICL already had the capacity to do this but I notice that they are using three different locations to manufacture the different mixes - UK, Netherlands and Israel.

The proposed collaboration with ADM only mentions the basic Poly4 - I think - although a nitrogen coating could easily be applied.

The logical way forward would be by acquisition or collaboration with an existing fertiliser manufacturer - CF would be perfect they have a local factory and are ADM suppliers - its all coming together!!!

17 days since the last load - around 32k per day or maybe up to 35k because the last few days have been weather delayed.

Excellent, hook up within the next half hour or so.

AS has a STS at Scapa Flo with the BP Tanker British Reliance.

It looks like AS is now moving to the south of AK for a hook up tomorrow - she should be in place for an attempt at first light.

Efforts for a hook up tonight continue as AK slowly rotates anticlockwise - the approach now is more from the north west.

Hook up time could now be from around 22.00 onwards.

Yes, it looks like they are going for it in the calm period when the low pressure passes over - sometime between 19.30 and 22.00 tonight.

It looks to me that ADM were the partner for the animal feed TorP and that when the deal with ADM was renegotiated later in 2015 both TorPs were bundled together.

Maybe ADM will concentrate on marketing Poly4 as a fertiliser when it becomes available - at this time demand may well exceed supply. And then as supply builds they will launch Poly4 as an animal feed.

There is an interesting possibility that the hook up could be at around 20.00 tonight.

The centre of the low pressure is passing over Kraken - this creates a period of calm weather - its possible that the hook up could be attempted at this time.

AS is drifting slowly closer to AK but it would take 5 hours + to reach her at her current speed - so it looks like tomorrow for the hook up.

The weather is complicated by the centre of a low pressure zone passing to the south of Kraken over the weekend.

If the forecast is right Kraken should have a northerly air flow tomorrow - this will mean that AK will reposition by 180 degrees and AS will have to approach from the south for the hook up.

gkb
it could be wrong to assume that DC4 will increase production - it may simply increase the reserves available for extraction.

The main thing that will boost production is improved performance from AK - remember this from the update in February 2018 - the potential is there !!!

Kraken gross production averaged 35,000 Bopd in January and has already delivered the targeted 50,000 Bopd (gross) as planned.

The weather doesn't look likely for a hook up today - Sunday looks better.

AS is just drifting around 15 nautical miles to the north of AK.

AS is in place around 21 nautical miles to the north of AK and ready to go if weather conditions allow tomorrow.

The weather is rather lively - with not much sign of improvement - it may be a waiting game ???

Looking around I cannot see any hook ups at the moment - just tankers waiting.

I guess this is why AS slowed and delayed her arrival - hopefully tomorrow will be ok - there seems to be a slight improvement in the weather.

Maybe Ocado could consider adapting a co2 flooding system - as used on ships for firefighting - for their distribution centres.

Therapist
I certainly agree no politics, but in this case it is something that could have a direct adverse impact on the oil price - especially when the NOPEC story is added to the mix.

Another round of rinse and repeat by the looks of things.

And just when the story seemed to have died -

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/07/us/politics/khashoggi-mohammed-bin-salman.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur

AS has delayed her arrival - its looking like a Saturday arrival and hook up now.

The weather is just OK.

I had a delivery today from the Crawley spoke, speaking to a driver he said that Ocado were very proactively trying to get deliveries in Hampshire back up and running by transferring some drivers from Crawley to the Portsmouth area as temporary cover - he had full confidence that they could do this very efficiently.

In the short term I guess they will very quickly establish a new spoke at Andover - that will get the local deliveries in Hampshire back to normal.

Hello Kraken

Yes, this is excellent and 3 days ahead of my prediction.

Also, no STS at Scapa Flo or Sullom Voe at the moment, so it could be another 600k load to Rotterdam.