Member Info for chilting

Remember, a lot of the shorting is being done by bond holders - the Euroclear figure has been high for some time for this reason.

The media can make a story out of anything, just using facts but misinterpreting them - as they have in this case.

The latest figure I saw, I think it was from the Telegraph article, was 12.36% - presumably that was obtained last week from a subscription site.

From Euroclear we had 12.8% at the end of December.

So, if anything the shorts are reducing and may continue to reduce as we close in on stage 2.

I think an open offer is the least likely outcome.

The cash will come, I think, from a strategic partner or an accelerated bookbuild.

But, it has to be when stage 2 is agreed in principal or the investor/investors would not have the confidence to invest.

Maybe also Sirius might tag on a SMALL rights issue to allow existing share holders to get some cheap shares - a sort of loyalty reward.

If the Telegraph article was credible I would have expected more increased shorts reported on Castellain tonight - these would have actually increased last Thursday or Friday.

In actual fact the only activity reported is a small reduction by Marshall Wace - no doubt taking advantage of the low SP.

Euroclear had shorts at 12.8% at the end of December - that may have increased - but I still think most of those shorting Sirius are bond holders "playing games" and making money regardless of how the SP moves.

The usual terms for pre season deals in the horticultural sector are delivery December - March and pay April 20th.

These terms are offered by the manufacturer/supplier.

Brent seems to be naval gazing news flow at the moment - I don't think anyone can predict where it is going in the short term.

Longer term I think we can be reasonably confident of a slow rise towards $70.

There is an option for Sirius to have its own salesforce on the road in the UK and Europe.

As growers, we order products such as fertilisers through our wholesalers or the manufacturer - smaller loads come via the wholesaler larger loads come direct.

Invoicing is always done by the wholesaler - the wholesaler only takes a very small margin on direct loads.

Manufacturers have their own sales team on the road - they mainly deal with larger customers and build market share - when they take orders these are invoiced by the wholesaler.

So the wholesaler provides access to the market but it is the manufacurer who still has ultimate control.

On the subject of ADM - we haven't had any news of a Indian marketing deal.

ADM are very strong in India and have been promoting good agricultural practice with a Community Commitment program - they also have good logistical support in India.

https://www.adm.com/adm-worldwide/india

Brent badly needs a push up from somewhere - not sure it will come from Venezuela - although heavy crude looks like it is still on the up as Venezuelan exports fall, so good news for Kraken crude.

Scott Spirit is now tied up alongside at Europoort Rotterdam.

Siri Knutsen is just off the Yorkshire coast heading for Rotterdam.

A very productive week for Enquest.

We could have a very rough ride ahead - the news on stage 2 could be a couple of months away or more.

Keep the faith - don't sell whatever happens.

Thank you Matrix - it was worth the wait then.

Maybe the work over did improve production.

Now this is looking rather good !!!

Siri Knutsen was at EP for around 24 hours and her draught has gone from an empty 8.5 to 12m - she is on her way directly to Rotterdam.

I am not sure how that equates in volume of crude - Matrix can you help please.

Sirius could also tag on a SMALL rights issue for the share holders enabling all of us to pick up some substantially discounted shares.

John
Yes that is convenient, but it is probably the threat of a rights issue or open offer that has depressed the SP so much.

It would be nice if at least some of the equity went to a strategic partner but that may be a bit of a long shot for the total amount.

A strategic book build will I think be the answer for the balance because it could be offered when stage 2 has been agreed in principal and the potential investors would know this was the case - they could therefore expect an immediate substantial paper profit on their investment.

From the companies point of view it would also be a big advantage because the capital raised would be in their bank account within 24 hours and any delays while stage 2 was finalised would be mitigated - CF also made the point that he expected the cash from the extra expenditure to be quickly available pointing towards this option.

The worst case scenario - funding for the additional capital from shareholders or open offer - is now costed in to the current SP.

If the funding comes from another source expect the SP to rise substantially - especially as it is likely to be announced at the same time as stage 2 is agreed in principal.

Kapersky

The Bankers funding stage 2 will want to see the project fully funded, including the addition, before they will release funds for stage 2 - also CF has said the additional funding cash will be spent first before the borrowed funds.

This basically means that any share allocation for the additional funding will be based on the SP at the time of the allocation. If the funding comes from a strategic partner or from city institutions the cost per share will be very close to the SP but if it comes from share holders it will be at a very substantial discount to the SP.

It looks like we still have a hook up - the AIS on Siri Knutsen hasn't updated for 21 hours indicating that she is probably still in the same position - so we could have a very decent load when we are able to look at the draught.

Around 23 hours or possibly 21 hours [since the AIS stoped updating] and counting.

Oh dear - it seems the illustrious founder was the product of a marketing man's inagination - talk about house of cards!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46821488