Member Info for chilting

Load 29 was offloaded around 1st January.

Hello Scotman

The point I was trying to make is that ADM would want to base their European agricultural services operation in one location but Brexit may have delayed that decision.

The announcement of the full ownership of Gleadell would seem to favour a UK operating base but they could still choose Germany where they also have a very strong presence.

Maybe ADM are simply waiting to see how Brexit pans out before they choose how to structure their European operation for agricultural services - it could be a UK base or maybe a German base.

I think this all but seals the deal for ADM to market Poly4 in the UK - very encouraging !!!!

When you look at ADM's companies in Europe in detail it seems that they could also handle Poly4 marketing on the continent. Looking to Asia maybe India as well.

https://www.adm.com/adm-worldwide

Apart from the change in the stage 2 debt structure there isn't much new info here - exactly as I would expect with discussions ongoing.

One significant thing though - the estimate to complete stage 2 by the end of Q1 isn't repeated - to be replaced with this -

"The stage 2 financing is making progress towards obtaining commitments from lenders"

And here in more detail -

"Executing our stage 2 financing plan remains our priority. We continue to make progress towards obtaining stage 2 financing commitments and are working constructively with all relevant parties to achieve this. The process with the lenders is continuing this quarter as we work through the due diligence reports with the lending group and progress discussions on the revised debt structure."

Kraken

I spy my little eye something beginning with O ????

I think that the financing talks are ongoing with the Banks and that as they also involve the Government Guarantees we are very unlikely to here any news at all until they are completed - total confidentiality.

News from the mine however has been very forthcoming so we in effect have an ongoing update of the progress here.

The September update gave an estimate of Q2 2019 for stage 2 to be complete so I guess we may have to wait until as late as the end on March before we get more information or maybe longer if they drag on.

Remember stage 2 isn't just commercially sensitive it is politically sensitive as well !!!

Nothing yet on load 30 yet other than quite a few tankers in the fleet are free at the moment or will be in a few days - it is just a waiting game.

Sullom Voe continues to have a steady flow of traffic but noting assigned for STS - also no STS at Scapa Flo.

Anneleen Knutsen is in the fleet that services Enquest Producer but now seems to be heading north but could be on a circuit including EP.

We wait......

Bobsto12

Yes, true - I should have said potentially profitable - if you just take the business at face value they are producing and selling their cakes etc at very high margins - they have good control of staffing levels in store and they seem to be popular with the punters - winning formula.

If I was a private equity investor and the business was being offered as a going concern at a cut price that would be a very attractive package.

Hello L3
Did you see this from Bloomberg - it seems even the analysts don't know where they are with shale production numbers and using the rig count isn't reliable.

https://www.worldoil.com/news/2018/1/11/rig-count-chaos-shale-drillers-are-confusing-us-oil-analysts

The article talks about the number of wells drilled but not brought into production but what it doesn't mention is that unless an oil company actually drills a well they will loose their licence rights - but they don't have to bring it into production - the whole story is misleading.

Hello DD
Don't take the Chinese numbers to literally some analysts reckon they are much lower.

But unless things get worst, hopefully they will get away with it and sentiment will be preserved - so onwards and upwards !!!

It is difficult to see any other option to administration now and a cut price sale to private equity.

I guess the business will continue as it is now with new private equity owners after administration because the actual profitability is very good.

Once again the shareholders loose out - should be an enquiry for this one though.

No big drama from China, although growth was down in line with expectations, onwards and upwards !!!

$600m

There are a growing number of candidates for load 30, including the regulars, but nothing definite as yet.

It seems to me that most of the increase in production is simply down to technological advances.

We know that these oil bearing rocks contain far more oil than could be expected to be recovered but the Americans seem to be pushing the boundaries with regard to what can be recovered - especially with their horizontal fracking techniques.

"For example, the number of frack stages in a well are expected to increase 14% this year to an average of 28.5, more than double what explorers were able to do in 2014. And the total amount of sand crammed into wells this year is expected to grow 20% to more than 100 million tons" source Bloomberg.

If this continues - how is it posible to predict US recoverable reserves and work out their production costs ???

This article adds another dimension and makes predicting US shale growth or reduction even more difficult to predict.

https://www.worldoil.com/news/2018/1/11/rig-count-chaos-shale-drillers-are-confusing-us-oil-analysts

Hello DD
Any news out of China has to be treated with caution - the communist party have full control - some commentators reckon that the communist party will successfully control the economy and news flow to such an extent that they can avoid a full scale crisis. But sentiment will be badly dented if the figures echo the expected downturn and Trumpet isn't helping.

I am not sure we will get much out of Cairns - probably just a mention of the recent breakdown over Christmas.

Chrisatbirdies

That would be logical but I think you will find that the Bankers will require full funding, including the extra announced in September, before they will release funds for stage 2

Its all tied in together now and because Sirius have an upper limit for debt the balance has to come from elsewhere - hopefully from a strategic partner and not from the shareholders.