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The trouble is - can be expect Brent to recover to $65-70 in the next few months.

The most likely outcome, I think, is that it will get up to around $60 then we will get profit taking pushing it back towards $55 - this process could repeat several times???

Enquest would off course follow this pattern.

I think that Poly4 will perform even better in the field than it has in the crop trials.

The nutrient blend is perfect for quick crop establishment allowing roots to penetrate deeper into the soil quicker to make use of water reserves especially in times of drought. The fine tuning can be done by regulating nitrogen requirement.

Another big advantage is that Poly4 will still be present in the soil after one season - this will help perennial crops such as Grapes - also as it leaches deeper into the soil will encourage roots to go even deeper for the next season crops - a real drought buster!!!

The link

https://www.poly4.com/site/assets/files/1720/1000-uof-1021-15_tomato_spot_2.pdf

I have just been reviewing the Tomato trial 2016.

The interesting thing here is the calcium - look at the plant height tables - observe the Control, SOP+Gypsum and the Poly4 and compare.

This simply confirms that the calcium in the Control only did a good job to establish the plants - likewise with the SOP+Gypsum the calcium established the plants well and with the extra nutrients the plants did reasonably well and stayed healthy - with the Poly4 crop we see the good start from the calcium and then the other nutrients in the Poly4 kept the plants productive and healthy.

As a grower this suggests to me that one of the main advantages of Poly4 is that the calcium aids root development and gets plants off to a good start.

The implications of this are very important especially when it comes down to water use - plants establish quickly -deep rooted crops use the water reserves deeper in the soil and are less prone to drought.

I would suggest that this is why ADM are soo interested in Poly4 for their North American customers and that Poly4 is likely to perform even better in the open field than it has in crop trials.

Companies with zero income never do well - Sirius is only up around 6p in three years - the constant worry is always fundraising or running out of money leading to dilution.

But when production starts 1p a week should certainly be achievable.

Its a win win for ICL they have excellent high margin products with their polyhalite range and eventually two sources of supply - when Sirius start production they can simply choose the cheapest source.

They don't have to sell large quantities of product to make big profits and they will probably end up making more money per tonne of polyhalite than anyone else, including Sirius - especially as they have a head start on all their rivals.

My guess is that they will ditch Boulby within 5 years of Sirius starting production.

I rather hope that I will be proved wrong this week and that we will get a hook up by mid week - I did say that Enquest lost a weeks production at Christmas - a mid week hook up would be around 10 days.

It could be Heather again - she is currently at Mc Duff.

It seems that ICL are primarily interested in polyhalite for their premium products, therefore, they probably will never be a big volume producer - especially as they have substitute compounds that they produce in much larger volumes.

Sirius have to at least initially concentrate on selling large volumes of Poly4 to as many world players as possible at the best possible price.

That will include selling to fertiliser manufactures who probably won't require large volumes but will be mixing product and selling to their customers at significantly higher margins - simple answer the contract price from Sirius is higher.

There must be thousands of small fertiliser companies around the world who will want/need to add polyhalite to their product portfolio.

I guess it will come down to a simple business decision for ICL - buy in polyhalite or mine their own - maybe in 5-10 years we will know the answer.

It will be interesting to see if Sirius do become a producer of fertilisers other than Poly4 - personally I don't think so - unlike ICL they don't have the access to the other compounds needed to make compound mixes or the sales infrastructure - also they would run the risk of upsetting their fertiliser company customers - horses for courses and all that.

This product range is a win win for ICL and Sirius.

ICL are using a small amount of polyhalite in their premium compound mixes and making a very high margin on the product.

Sirius are benefiting from the confidence that is growing around the world in polyhalite.

This balance will I think continue even when Sirius are producing Poly4 in volume.

Adding to that jesse - Sirius are just as powerless as us at this stage, they have probably made their pitch and are just waiting for a resolution.

The update calendar has been fairly consistent since it was announced two years ago so hopefully we will get a quarterly update as early as the end of next week.

It will probably just give us an update on the construction of the mine with little information on the finance unless the financial side has been resolved.

We will have to be patient with regard to stage 2 and the extra funding - Bankers, Government departments and Lawyers work at their own speed.

Fairly flat this month -

Castellain are currently at 6.23% - a slight increase.

Likewise Euroclear are showing 12.8% for December up from 12.51% in November.

I guess this is simply a reminder that the Bond holders are still playing their fun and games.

Not by much but Marshall Wace reduced by 0.05% on the 2nd January - their first reduction since October - now at 1.19%.

On Euroclear the news is even better - just 2.42% in December down from 2.83% in November.

Atlas Voyager has left Sullom Voe bound for Philadelphia with a draught of 11.6m - indicating a standard load of around 500-550k.

Yes, it should be a good day tomorrow for the energy sector.

The market itself could be very interesting - the Dow is down nearly 3% because of the Apple statement with the blame centred on a fall in demand in the Chinese market but the Chinese stock market hardly reacted - maybe the savvy Chinese are reacting against Trump's sanctions by not purchasing American products.

So will the London Market follow tomorrow ???

Heather has now finished transferring her load at Sullom Voe and is now leaving.

The load has been transfered to Atlas Voyager - she is still at Sullom Voe with her AIS turned off.

Heather finally managed to get into Sullom Voe this evening and started transferring her load to Atlas Voyager.

Sullom Voe seems to be getting much busier recently - in addition to the STS another tanker is in dock and another is waiting to dock - all good news for Enquest.

It looked dire this morning - todays finish was much better than we could have expected.

I am not sure where we go from here but at least it proves that Brent will respond favourably to good news.

Robert Mercer is certainly getting his money's worth - financially and politically - he was one of Trump's biggest donors in 2016.