Member Info for chilting

I suppose if we end the day over 20p that will be something of a victory - but I am not holding my breath.

I would like to be optimistic, but it all comes down to how much a company without any income is worth - the market doesn't seem to price in potential. So we have to take into account that fickle thing sentiment.

So maybe after another sentiment driven spike after stage 2, I can see the SP not being much further on than 35 -40p by this time next year - we have to wait until production starts to see the real growth.

Happy new year everyone !!!

If its not ADM then maybe the French agricultural giant InVivo would make a good partner - they part own Gleadell with ADM

There agricultural division offers a similar a similar service to ADM focussed on French cooperatives - in other words they offer everything from seeds to fertilizers to crop storage etc etc.

Looking at their website this statement stands out - "InVivo Agro is also forming strategic alliances aimed at bringing cooperatives and their farmers innovative, sustainable and profitable solutions"

https://www.invivo-group.com/en/agriculture

Just keep everything crossed for AK tonight - big storm in the early hours 8-9m waves - the last big storm in early December put it out of action - if the AIS is working in the morning everything is ok.

Happy new year everyone !!!

The Banks will need to see the funds raised for the additional funding before they close the deal on stage 2 - it all has to be done together.

Hello Pelle

Unfortunately Heather stayed close to AK for a few days and then went directly to Glen Lyon for a hook up - she then went to Scapa Flo for a STS with the Glen Lyon load before coming back to AK.

It is possible that she had some oil from the first hook up with AK already on board - she has the capacity - but that actually makes little difference to the eventual outcome.

avocet
Make not mistake when it comes to offering a discount it can be substantial - maybe around 40% if Sirius are forced to go for a rights issue or open offer - that would be off the current SP.

But if they offer an investment to a strategic partner or a group of institutions the discount would be far less and they would off course know that stage 2 was in the bag - I think it is clear that the SP will rise when stage 2 completes.

It looks like Heather will have to wait until Wednesday before she can berth at Sullom Voe due to very poor weather - Sullom Voe is already closed and the weather is set to get worst.

I don't think any oil was transferred last weekend - or if it was only a small amount - AK clearly had a problem.

This will I think be a straight forward load of around 525k for the US - but will check after the STS.

Heather is due at Sullom Voe at 11.00 tomorrow for a STS with Atlas Voyager.

Basically it seems that ENQ have lost a weeks production but that could be made up if the next taker arrives quicker.

"is there any scenario that it might suit the company to have a lower share price entering into stage 2 negotiations."

Yes, if Sirius plan to raise the additional funds needed by issuing extra shares it would be much more attractive to a prospective investor/investors with the SP being so low - a very easy sell.

The Banks will insist that the extra funding is in place before they agree to stage 2, therefore, the pricing for any additional fund raising would be pinned to the current SP.

After stage 2 is announced the SP will rise giving the new shareholders an instant paper profit - but long term holders are stuffed!!!

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-usa-trump-trade/trump-says-big-progress-on-possible-china-trade-deal-idUKKCN1OS0ID?il=0

We can but hope !!!

Looking at the past track it that seems hook up was around 13.30.

Hello Pelle

It seems that Heather is empty - her draught is 9.2m

We cannot be sure that any crude was transferred last time but we may get some idea with the duration of the hook up this time.

The main thing is that this load will probably be around the standard 525k US load judging by the size of the tanker waiting for the STS at Sullom Voe.

Heather is just 6 nautical miles from AK and from the speed of her approach is looks like hook up will not be delayed.

Heather has left Scapa Flo - ETA AK midday tomorrow.

Not a concern but it does pin the extra funding to the current SP - that could be very attractive from the point of view of a strategic partner/institution taking a stake - the value of their holding could even double overnight if the SP does what we expect it to when stage 2 is announced.

It could be that the Banks will demand that the additional funding has to be in place as a condition of lending for stage 2 - that seems logical ???

It is now official that Heather is on her way back to AK.

She hasn't left yet, her current STS continues, but she is due back at AK around lunchtime tomorrow and at Sullom Voe on Sunday 30th at 14.00 for her STS.

Certainly Jesse - I would be very happy if ADM took a stake - I think it would cement their commitment to Sirius and give Sirius the confidence to use Gleadell for their UK marketing.

The main point with a strategic partner taking a stake is that - Sirius would get all the benefits of a close business relationship - the shareholders benefit because the discount offered for the new shares issued to a strategic partner is far less than would be offered for a rights issue or open offer - probably around 40% less.

I have noticed before that when a strategic partner takes a stake in a business the SP retains its value or rises - the only downside is that future dividends are reduced.

The problem with rights issues is that the new shares are offered at a substantial discount to the current SP.

Last September with ENQ the SP was 39p when they announced an acquisition - the rights issue priced the new shares at 22p.

They have to do this to make the new shares an attractive proposition to ensure success of the issue.

On that basis it could be as many as 10 billion new shares not 5 billion in this senario but it won't come to that. - although maybe that is one of the reasons for the lack of recovery after the bear dive in September???