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Euroclear showing 12.57% for November up from 11.91% in October - records all stock out on loan.

Castellain currently showing 6.03% - only records holdings over 0.5%

Bond holders are probably still shorting.

Combination of shorting and low volume continues to flat line SP ahead of stage 2.

Net effect SP is like a coiled spring and will surge on successful stage 2 announcement - best buy now!!!

It seems like the most likely outcome for Brent in the next few months - according to the chart nerds who follow the Elliott Waves - they did sort of predict the recent crash.

Is a modest rebound now - I guess OPEC may dictate that - then a retest of the November low early in the new year followed by a much more substantial rebound.

L3
I reserve the right to call anyone stupid.

I say things how I see them !!!

Certainly agree with DD and they also seem to have done well with hedging.

It looks like Kraken production will top out in the region of 30-35k, even with DC4 - I suppose the only good thing about that is that the reserves will last longer.

It seems that small outages are to blame, I think we saw one as a result of last weeks gales when the AIS failed, Oceania is still hovering this morning waiting for a hook up.

To say Kraken is a failure is clearly stupid - in hindsight maybe the design and construction of AK could have been better but I think the heavy nature of the crude accounts for most of the problems.

Oceania is now positioned around 14 nautical miles to the south of AK - expecting hook up first light tomorrow.

Hello Pelle

I think that Oceania is just swinging around so that she can approach AK from the south east - we should see in the next hour or so.

The actual hook up will probably be at first light tomorrow.

Russian production has already fallen by around 0.5% this month.

Iraq has made positive noises about cutting production to boost prices.

US markets are closed tomorrow for George H W Bush funeral - not sure about the oil market???

Myosotis - from a farmer/growers point of view all we think about is price and logistics - if for example we could order 8 pallets of Nitram and 8 pallets of Poly4 to arrive on the same artic to exactly match our current needs at the optimum price we would be very happy customers.

Myosotis - the thing I like about ADM is their disruptive wholesale trading model - as they don't produce fertilisers themselves they are able to play the market and get the best price for the requirements of their customers - good news for fitting in Poly4 quickly to their supply chain.

Gleadell offer the same sort of service in the UK although it is adapted to the smaller market, their product offering and tie up with CF fertilisers would obviously be enhanced to the mutual benefit of all if they added Poly4 for their portfolio.

Hello Myosotis

Did you see my post on Saturday morning re Gleadell and their joint ownership by ADM and Invivo.

https://www.gleadell.co.uk/about/

Should be by Friday - probably waiting until after the OPEC meeting on Wednesday.

Basically it seems that Bumi are heavily reliant on AK and Armada Olombendo to keep them solvent and pay off debt but the revenue received is not enough to fund new ventures and their financial backers are not playing ball.

It seems that their only option is to heavily scale back the business to reduce costs and just rely on the income from past capital projects to pay off debt and hopefully turn a profit.

We should see a big surge in volume again with plenty of buying - back towards £2.00 in no time !!!

No hook up yet - although KL Brisfjord is no longer close to AK.

Bumi Armada certainly look like they are in severe trouble after the CEO issued a rather bleak memo to the workforce....

https://www.thesundaily.my/business/bumi-CY203271

The supply vessel KL BRISFJORD seems to have finished at AK.

I am expecting an early hook when it gets light tomorrow morning/

All sounding very positive with todays RNS.

Still no sign of the hook up but the supply vessel KL BRISFJORD is still working alongside AK - she arrived around 8am this morning - I guess when she goes we should have some action.

Hello Jan

Apparently they have withdraw because they have virtually ceased oil production - they will just continue to produce Gas in the future.

Oceania is just 14 nautical miles from AK, but no sign that they are going for the hook up yet.