Member Info for chilting

For a more objective look on the prospects for Brent in 2019 we have to look away from the oil markets and look at what's happening at the sharp end.

Teekay issued their Q3 results a few days ago, their assessment of the tanker market going into 2019 is well worth a read - if only to restore some form of sanity !!!

https://www.teekay.com/blog/2018/11/15/teekay-tankers-ltd-reports-third-quarter-2018-results/

I certainly don't buy it that there is massive oversupply in the oil market - there is no way that oil stocks can go from September's predictions to what we have now so quickly unless the whole global economy is heading into a downspin.

So it is speculators - hedge funds, governments.

Who knows it might even be the Saudi's and the Russians creating the illusion of oversupply and then cutting supply to create a supply shortage in the real world and a massive price spike. - that would make Trump squeal.

Plunging again - looks set to test $60 after crashing through 2018 low.

Tentative signs -

Heather Knutsen is currently offloading at a German refinery - she is due to leave tomorrow afternoon for MacDuff - a regular staging post for Kraken bound tankers.

Also there are several possible contenders for an onward load due at Scapa Flo and Sullom Voe.

It doesn't look at though ICL have plans to stop production at Boulby - they are busy developing a whole new range of higher value compound fertilizers using polyhalite.

It would seem logical that when Sirius start production ICL would stop marketing the raw product and just sell the compound mixes sourced from their own production or they could possibly buy in raw product from Sirius.

Closer to home ICL are now starting to use polyhalite in a much wider range of compound mixes aimed at particular crops and climatic conditions etc. This range will also be sold at a much higher margin than the raw product so even with their higher production costs they could still make healthy profits.

This is why I think that it is important that Sirius form a strategic partnership with a big player in the fertilizer industry otherwise they could be something of a one trick pony.

www.polysulphate.com/polysulphate-family/

One interesting snippet - a discussion between Saudi’s MBS and Putin is planned at the G20 summit at the end of the month ahead of the OPEC meeting.

I am not concerned about the funding and even the potential dilution.

The risk here is the same as any capital project - simply that cost overruns lead to more finance needing to be raised and without regular income that is very bad news.

I am convinced though that Sirius have the skill and drive to successfully complete the mine on time and on budget - lets just hope they have the luck as well.

Trump has now supported the Saudi's claiming that American jobs are at risk if he doesn't.

Just how many jobs varies according to Trump himself - anything from 40,000 to 1,000,000 - the video on this BBC video attempts to explain.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-46283355

One thought - as private investors if we found out that company x was going to be taken over before the news was official and the SP was set to double we would buy - insider trading.

If you were an oil producing country and you knew that POO was suddenly going to jump 20% because you were announce production cuts first of all you would do all you could to pull the price down then before the announcement you would buy heavily - Russians !!!

Don't forget Russians do bare grudges and Trump has had one over then with Iran - gloves off !!!.

gkb47 and Squif

Russians.

down $2

GaiasKidney

The market for Hydroponics may be small but the market for water soluble fertilizers for general use is massive - especially for organics.

I guess Sirius may do crop trials over the next few years with a soluble form of Poly4 if it is viable.

The real question here is - will Poly4 be available in a soluble form?

If it is it can be included in compound mixes for liquid fertilizers - including hydroponics.

This could be very attractive to organic growers, when mixed with other organic ingredients - they use far more soluble fertilizers than conventional growers.

Enquest like all growth shares will always have its ups and downs. It is very difficult to remain positive all the time and maybe we are all guilty of sometimes being much to negative. The main thing though is that you must have a conviction that at some time things will come good.

This conviction has been reinforced to me by another of my long term holdings, ITX - up from 1.55p on 6th November to 6.55p tonight - I was over 80% down, now less than 20%.

So stay positive and just hope the POO Gods are kind !!!

The Russians are certainly sending very mixed messages to the market.

This morning we heard that they were all for coordinated cuts with OPEC.

This afternoon they say that they will wait until the December OPEC meeting before announcing their intentions - POO fell on this comment.

Cynically I would suggest that they are playing the market with the advantage of knowing where it is going next !!!

That is excellent news from Russia - if they follow through with it we should see a much less volatile POO in 2019 -20.

This sentence stood out, regarding formalising OPEC+ -

"The group plans to institutionalise and make permanent their current alliance, which began in late 2016".

Ru Sirius

Yes, totally agree but it was way overdone and still has to be countered with good news to improve sentiment again.

The fall in the wider market and Brexit etc, has also subdued the SP and dissuaded private investors from investing in shares, therefore the SP has just tended to drift..

Buying growth shares is a risk but its great fun and potentially very rewarding.

First of all you need to get in ahead of the crowd to make the best returns, then you have to be very patient and also be prepared to take the rough with the smooth.

Sirius is in a bit of a rough patch at the moment but with good news that can change overnight. The bear dive in September was the cause and the fact that most of the shares are still in the hands of small investors - hence the volatility.

Now is the time to buy, ahead of the crowd - the SP could easily double early next year when stage 2 is announced.

With Enquest Producer, ENQ could simply be going for a 500k load - the vessel has more capacity than AK.