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Brent seems to have found a temporary level between $65 - $65.50.

What it will do now is anyone's guess.

Heather looks to be making her final approach to hook up.

Heather is now around 4 hours sailing time from AK so she will be in place for a hook up tomorrow.

Apart from being a bit breezy the weather is no problem and the sea state is very calm for November.

This article attempts to answer the questions - the main reason for the fall though is simple - oversupply coupled with a reduction in demand.

https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/drivers_of_price_action/2018/11/13/Crude-Oil-Bear-Market-Fundamental-Walkthrough-November-13.html

It has to be said that Trump created oversupply with his duplicity over the Iran sanctions AND he created the fall in demand with his Chinese sanctions !!!!!!!!!

WTI has pulled out the drop zone for now - keep everything crossed !!!

The capital cost news flipped Sirius into a bearish trading pattern - the shares dropped more than 20%

Until that changes with some good news re stage 2 funding little can be read into the current SP - it will simply drift with the wider market.

Even if we get dilution to fund the overrun of costs that may not hit the SP because it will probably be announced with stage 2 and the pot will get much bigger anyway as the companies assets increase.

Well its crunch time for WTI at the moment - it is in the resistance zone between $58.11 and $58.66 - the trend line from the 2016 low and the February 2018 low - so far so good - hopefully it will now bounce.

If there is a strategic partner I think they need to bring more than capital to the deal.

I would like to see a leading fertiliser company who could give Sirius a kick start to its marketing and use Poly4 to build a wide range of compound fertilisers - including some organic ones.

The market is being driven by irrational sentiment at the moment - nothing to do with Sirius - the bounce back will come soon enough - just hold and wait or buy if you have the cash.

Yesterdays fall in the Dow was mainly down to the dramatically overbought big tech stocks - I don't think that the FTSE will follow today.

Heather is just drifting off the Scottish coast now at around 6knots - this gives her an ETA at Kraken in the early hours of Wednesday morning with a hook up likely during daylight hours on Wednesday.

This isn't just about the oil market - it is about risk aversion throughout the worlds markets but oil always seems to come off worst.

Hopefully we will get some good news in the next few days that flips the sentiment - the Chinese seem ready to try and patch things up with Trump - no easy task when you are dealing with a deranged nationalist.

Analysts in the US are blaming the fall in oil for bringing down the Dow - I am not sure about that ???

But if its true Trump's actions with the Iran exceptions could have backfired spectacularly.

We have to hope that Enquest have hedged well - that could make the vital difference.

With regard to the US shale companies they also could have hedged - so maybe they will be a bit more resilient than expected ???

This Reuters piece makes the point that OPEC is basically in the same position as it was in Autumn 2016.

If we look at what happened then, they generally muddled along for six months with cuts that didn't have much bite before making a bigger commitment in the summer of 2017 - this resulted in the spike we had until October 2018.

We have to hope that OPEC+ including Russia is much more decisive this time - their reaction over the coming days will be critical.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-global-oil/u-s-crude-weakens-after-trump-calls-on-opec-to-keep-output-idUKKCN1NH035?il=0

Heather is in a AIS black hole at the moment but should be well north now off the Scottish coast - ETA at Kraken in around 24 hours.

Not much cheer for Enquest but at least Brent and WTI seem to have gained some stability today.

Meanwhile chaos rules elsewhere with the pound plunging on Brexit fears and the UK markets being dragged down by the US markets - notably Apple - its starting to look like the giant US tech companies have defied gravity for far to long and are way way overbought.

So hopefully POO will be out of the spotlight and left to lick its wounds.

We are not out of the woods yet!

The good news is that although large speculators closed long accounts in record numbers there wasn't a stampede to get out over the last few weeks.

The bad news is that WTI is still very close to the rising low started in February - any drop below $60.37 is bad news.

The large speculators drive the market but they just follow sentiment - it is vital that they stay positive.

Heather is currently off the Yorkshire Coast, she has slowed down to match her ETA late on Tuesday afternoon - so its looking like a Wednesday hook up now.

The weather is OK.

A nice positive start in Asia - Brent up over a dollar.

If Heather continues at this speed she will arrive at AK in the early hours of Tuesday morning, ready for a Tuesday hook up - around 24 hours earlier than I anticipated.

The weather is set fine.

Hopefully OPEC can just do enough to push Brent back into the $74 - $79 zone - if it held roughly in this zone throughout 2019 that would I think be a good result for everyone.