Member Info for chilting

Hello Matrix

I think that it is fair to assume that the duration has increased this time because of the weather - I think that we could even add 3 days.

AK's capacity does allow for delays especially when the loads are 500k - maybe load 27 will be a few days early?

Everything looks set for a Sunday hook up with the weather calming down considerably.

Sullom Voe is still currently closed for berthing due to high winds but hopefully that will soon change as the weather improves.

Hispania is now expected at Sullom Voe at 22.00 on Monday evening if all goes well.

www.sullomvoe.org.uk/CurrentTraffic.aspx

The question now is can the oil price even hold at current levels - that seems to depend on wider sentiment throughout the worlds financial markets.

From a technical viewpoint the signs certainly are not encouraging.

https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2018/10/26/Crude-Oil-Set-For-Third-Weekly-Decline-Chasing-Stock-Markets-Lower.html

At least Brent has recovered a bit this afternoon - if it finishes the week on a positive note that could help next week.

No sign yet of the SP breaking the downward trend - a full month now - support is at 25.78p currently.

Its now looking like a Sunday hook up - Hispania is due at AK late afternoon on Saturday if she maintains her current speed of around 5.5knots.

Hold and wait is the name of the game now - no point taking the risk of buying - no idea if this is the bottom.

Certainly don't sell - just wait.

Hold and wait is the name of the game now - no point taking the risk of buying - no idea if this is the bottom.

Certainly don't sell - just wait.

Sorry, it looks like a red day for all - best not to look !!!

Any assessment of the timings between loads has also to take into account the weather - I think in this case we have to subtract a two day weather hold up.

The plan presumably was for Hispania to arrive at Sullom Voe first thing Saturday with probably a 500k load for transfer to the US - this was not possible because of the weather..

Remembering that AK can store 600k any short delay can easily be accommodated - hopefully the next load will be a corresponding two days earlier.

Looking like a Saturday hook up when the weather looks to be much better than today - Sullom Voe is actually closed for berthing at the moment because of high winds.

Weather going forward is much better from Saturday onwards into next week.

No sign of movement - maybe waiting for better weather on Saturday - early Saturday hook up ???

Very interesting, thank you casapinos.

Yep !

Look at this run of ALGO trades for example - and yes these are all individual trades from the shorters computer based trading - and yes they are probably bond holders hedging their gains.

5:54:57 25-Oct-2018
22.50
GBX
15,302
3,442.95
Automatic Trade
ALGO
XLON
15:54:56 25-Oct-2018
22.50
GBX
15,302
3,442.95
Automatic Trade
ALGO
XLON
15:54:54 25-Oct-2018
22.50
GBX
15,302
3,442.95
Automatic Trade
ALGO
XLON
15:54:53 25-Oct-2018
22.50
GBX
15,302
3,442.95
Automatic Trade
ALGO
XLON
15:54:52 25-Oct-2018
22.50
GBX
15,302
3,442.95
Automatic Trade
ALGO
XLON
15:54:51 25-Oct-2018
22.50
GBX
15,302
3,442.95
Automatic Trade
ALGO
XLON
15:54:49 25-Oct-2018
22.50
GBX
15,302
3,442.95
Automatic Trade
ALGO
XLON
15:54:48 25-Oct-2018
22.50
GBX
15,302
3,442.95
Automatic Trade
ALGO
XLON
15:54:47 25-Oct-2018
22.50
GBX
15,302
3,442.95
Automatic Trade
ALGO
XLON
15:54:45 25-Oct-2018
22.50
GBX
15,302
3,442.95
Automatic Trade
ALGO
XLON

Hispania aka Enrique will need to get his turbo boosters fired up if he is going to get to Sullom Voe via AK by 4am on Saturday - its so frustrating !!!

The SP is being driven by the market in general and that in turn is being driven by macroeconomic concerns.

Fear is the wrong word substitute it for risk aversion.

It has little to do with Sirius or even the UK economy, it is macroeconomic forces that are driving the market at the moment.

Particularly fear of a slowdown and property crash in China and a big readjustment of the stock market in the US - it could be 2008 all over again.

I did think that 28p would be the bottom but I am not sure now where we are going - the problem now is risk aversion and that applies to ENQ, the oil price, Brexit and the world economy - not good !!!

Personally I think we have already slipped into a bear market and many investors are sitting on their hands - Trump's policies re China have been the catalyst.

Many stocks have had the stuffing knocked out of them and look good value for long term holders - SXX is just one of many.

I think market conditions will drive the SP for the foreseeable future with even good news failing to bring back the SP to the level we were at in the summer.

Its generally at times like this that we see a big reversal in fortunes but I am not so sure this time - we are already in a bear market for POO because demand has been hammered back by Trump in China and I feel that the wider market is becoming increasingly fragile.

New rating cut to underperform.

From FT -
Jefferies upgraded Tullow Oil and Ophir Energy from “hold” to “buy” as part of a sector note that rolled forward valuations to 2020. The broker favoured stocks with clear de-risked projects rather than prospects that are undeveloped yet highly valued, which led it to downgrade Cairn Energy and EnQuest from “hold” to “underperform”.