Member Info for chilting

Seems to have bounced now around 37.25p - real time

Currently around 36.5p - re google.

Would it not be better for Sirius if they sold Poly4 directly to the end user in the UK and Europe rather than using a third party - they already have a fully functioning sales office - why not just develop that for the UK and Europe?

Hello Matrix

Yes - great thanks!

I think Thornbury just runs between European refineries - including Flotta.

Sullom Voe is open again so maybe Hispania will go there for another STS ???

Hello Martix

Have you any insight with regard Hispania - she just seems to be moored in Scapa Flo with no obvious transfer candidates.

The longer gap between loads 23 and 24 is simply the result of bringing new wells online and a short maintenance shutdown.

It should be remembered that until DC4 comes online next year Kraken will not be up to full production.

James Wharton was the MP for Stockton South until he lost his seat in the 2017 election.

So presumably as he was born in the north and represented a northern constituency he did have some claim to the job as Minister for the Northern Powerhouse - the Guardian article fails to mention this.

We see short and distort players all the time on these boards but I don't think they do much to influence opinion - most of the time they are simply annoying.

However, on another level those with influence can certainly cause distortions - such as certain FT reporters - but as to their motivation - who knows.

As for Sirius we are currently trading with a bearish bias on the run up to confirmation of stage 2 so that I think is the reason for the short term volatility but overall the future is good.

http://uk.stoxline.com/q_uk.php?s=sxx

There seems to be no sign of Hispania transferring her load with no candidates for transfer in or bound for Scapa Flo.

Also of note is that Sullom Voe is closed at the moment for berthing due to high winds - the weather is very autumnal at the moment.

So I guess the transfer could be at Scapa Flo or Sullom Voe but is not imminent.

I think stage 2 is probably secure now that the Torps target has been reached.

The main uncertainty is with the project cost overrun. It could be added to stage 2 but this may simply be to much borrowing.

So, we could have a rights issue but this may not have the desired result and could fall flat.

More likely, I think is that Gina will increase her 4% stake to around 12-15% - she is hooked now and maybe her role will be as a sort of underwriter of the project if costs do increase, as they have with the tunnel.

This is a sentiment driven share so I am still sticking to my start of the year prediction of 55p - no dilution.

Well the 5th September update and run up to stage 2 have upped the tension and caused some investors to jump ship but I think it is mainly traders rather than shorts who have caused the volatility this time.

The traders have seen their chance and jumped in on the fall after the 5th September update and are simply using the volatility with the bigger swings to make a short term profit.

As for pumping and dumping that obviously does happen but unless you are a FT journalist, for example, you are likely to have little effect on the market.

We don't have actual figures for shorts, other than historical information, but headline shorts haven't changed much this month on Castellian and Euroclear were on just over 9% at the end of August - these figures are distorted by bonds on loan.

Returning from Cornwall its good to see the SP back in the 40's with POO flying high but that was a big gap between 23 and 24 - hopefully it included the planned maintenance shutdown noted in the February update.

Investors should be aware that until stage 2 is concluded there is likely to be unexplained volatility in the SP.

The idiots in the press know this and will exploit it.

With such a high percentage of private investors here, including traders, we certainly need to be wary about setting stop losses.

Personally I think the cost over run will be covered by debt - its a bit like adding the cost of a conservatory to you mortgage - minimal impact - not worried at all about stage 2 - all debt.

It is vitally important that likely cost overruns are factored in at this stage - that was what the RNS on the 6th September was all about.

This mine has to be finished on budget - this isn't a public project like Crossrail where some faceless bureaucrat signs a big cheque when they run out of cash - this is the real world if Sirius run out of cash, we are stuffed and yes Gina will be there, but she will probably be there to pick up the pieces for a fraction of their true worth.

Good luck everybody I am off to Cornwall for a week or two - back on 28th September.

I absolutely agree - no chance of a takeover - that would be very bad news - no chance of a fair deal for shareholders - we would be sold out short.

The only time it could happen is if the project runs badly behind schedule and the company runs out of cash - that is the biggest risk here.

But, personally I have full faith in Sirius - the bad news RHS on the 6th September actually reinforced my confidence that they have the full measure of the task ahead.

Looking at BP's asset portfolio in the North Sea it doesn't seem to make sense that they would want to sell Magnus unless they plan to sell off a lot more assets - maybe even all their assets in the North Sea ???

https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp-country/en_gb/united-kingdom/pdf/BP-Portfolio-map-2018.pdf

I think ICL may well close Boulby when Sirius reach full production and at that point could become a major customer for Sirius, purchasing polyhalite as an ingredient for a lot of their compound fertilizers, especially their organic mixes.

This could be the reason that ICL are keeping Boulby open at the moment to establish this market - they may be doing Sirius a very big favour???