Member Info for chilting

Excellent news from the Euroclear data this month - shorts are down from 3.66% in September to just 0.12% in October !!!

Hopefully that figure is already on the way down as they close and take their profits, that in turn fuels the SP and pushes the bond price up as well - I know its legal but ….

Still it is in our favour - this time.

Euroclear data for October is now available, the rights issue clouds the picture.

It shows ENQ up from 4.2% in September to 4.34% and it also shows the fully paid shares on 0.47% and the nil paid shares at 0.48%.

Headline shorts on Castellain are up today by 0.11% to 1.01% - all Marshall Wace.

That's easy - POO doubled in value in March 2019 after Trump took out the Saudis after his son in law disappeared when he visited the Saudi embassy in Washington.

The latest load of Kraken crude is now on its way to Philadelphia aboard the Minerva Helen after a rapid refuelling stop in the Netherlands.

Apparently WTI has now moved into oversold territory for the first time since 2107 so although the longer term upward trend seems to have broken down it does seem that POO may rebound a bit in the short term.

Sorry there is no magic money pot in cases like this the normal caveat applies - The value of investments can fall as well as rise, and you may get back less than you invested. An investment’s past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Its starting to look increasingly like Sirius is at the start of a bull run with 30p the first target.

"Idealogicaly, the Donald is clearly only interested in common sense and looking after his own house."

The trouble is that his policies are not common sense - they are just dammed dangerous.

The damage Trump has done to international trade with his sanctions is still playing out but is it tips China over the edge we will all know about it - it will make the 2008 crisis seem like a picnic.

Two important points with the Iran sanctions remain to be clarified.

Firstly Trump has said that he will grant eight wavers to allow eight countries to continue to import Iranian crude but he hasn't said who the countries are, one could be China, or even how long the waivers will last.

Secondly he hasn't clarified what he will do if countries break the sanctions - other than his normal bluster.

The net result could be that Iran will simply carry on supplying at current levels but just supply fewer countries.

Its such a small market for this share, I think that the fluctuations will be fairly pronounced and probably irrelevant, especially for those of us so much out of pocket.

What we need is some good news - a continuation of the good news we had before the cash crisis - hopefully we should get some before Christmas - the RNS on the 16th May indicated that we would.

http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=ITX&ArticleCode=7i5ke7ck&ArticleHeadline=Joint_marketing_effort_defined_with_AkzoNobel

As long as the market in general stays fairly neutral I don't see why Sirius shouldn't stage a bit of a recovery this month to around the 30p mark - even with no news - this drop is well overdone.

Minerva Helen, the tanker taking the latest load from Kraken, has changed her destination from Falmouth to Vlissingen in the Netherlands.

The anchorage at this port has been used by other tankers carrying Kraken crude as a refuelling stop prior to taking the crude to the US.

This is a good summing up of where we are now - the real question seems to be can Brent hold above $70 ??

https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2018/11/02/Crude-Oil-Analysis-Key-Support-Break-Increases-Risk-of-Deeper-Losses.html

The talk of dilution after such an avalanche of good news simply derailed the bullish momentum that Sirius had been trading in during the summer and replaced it with a bearish bias - hence the 30% drop. The bearish bias continues and probably will until stage 2 funding is sorted.

I do wonder if maybe the European partner might take a stake in Sirius and provide some or all of the extra capital needed for the tunnel. That could go a long way to kick starting sales and may be worth the resulting dilution.

Quartys have closed their short lived position - down from 0.5% to zero last Wednesday.

Marshall Wace are still slowly actively increasing now at 0.9%

GSA have fallen bellow 0.5% and could still be lingering.

Euroclear data will be out for October early next week.

Looks like POO might have bounced ???

I was thinking that Enquest has been quite resilient today considering how POO is being hammered - fingers crossed!

WTI is currently challenging support at $64 - this is the level of the rising high from the 2016 and 2017 lows.

A close above this level should, I hope, push WTI back up to around $67 but the next level down for more resistance isn't until the $61 mark.

Currently WTI has broken down below $64.

I certainly cannot see the logic of averaging down as soon as trading resumes, simply because no one knows just how profitable or not this company is. There could be lots more bad news to come.

Luckily I sold out most of my shares a few months ago because of risk of closure with their Debenhams concessions. The remainder I will just hold and may add after next years results.