Member Info for chilting

Milo
I am not saying you are wrong but to me the biggest problem hasn't so much been economic problems it has been sentiment.

Trump, I think is mainly to blame - if he was to go I think things could look very different.

China as you say is a big worry - especially their property sector.

As for Brexit, that does also affect sentiment but only in a marginal way for some UK stocks.

I would certaily agree though that holding Sirius long term is an excellent hedge for any senario.

We do tend to say that the figures are manipulated when we don't like them - true.

The main problem, I think, is that they are released every week, this I think leads to short term distortions - it would be much better if we got an average figure worked out over a full month - this could still be updated every week but I think it would give a more accurate impression.

The deal was targeted to complete by the end of 2018 but there have been so many changes here since it was announced in May, not least a new board of directors and also changes at AkzoNobel.

It seems the deal is still on track so I guess it will be Q1 2019.

I guess we are in for another volatile day but which way - up or down - who knows ???

EIA due at 16.00.

The last thing that we want is a rights issue or an open offer - in my experience the offer is always at a very substantial discount to the SP - an Open Offer by ITX back in the summer left we down 89%.

Much better that the new shares are sold direct to a few institutions on the basis that they hold them for at least a set period of time - priced at a small discount to the SP.

That is if we have to have dilution at all !!!

Heather is now STS in Scapa Flo with the Glen Lyon crude.

She is now expected at Sullom Voe at 14.00 on Sunday afternoon for the STS to deliver the Kraken crude.

Reducing costs associated with shale production probably means not dealing with the contaminated water resulting from production - in other words not using rigs to pump the contaminated water safely underground, just leaving it in lagoons..

This has become complicated - it seems that AK had a minor problem that has now been fixed.

In the meantime - Heather Knutsen went to Glen Lyon for a load - she is currently on her way to Scapa Flo for a STS.

After that, I expect Heather to return to AK to hook up - Heather is due at Sullom Voe on New Years Eve for a STS.

I am not sure how much crude was transferred from AK on the first attempt - if any - but Heather is a large shuttle tanker - the tanker waiting at Sullom Voe suggests a standard 525k load to the US.

It looks like we should get a very strong rebound tomorrow in all markets - POO is up around 8% and the Dow is up 700 points - Christmas Eve losses are reversed.

Those comments by Trump and his Treasury Secretary look even more like market fixing now.

Good news AK AIS came back on around lunchtime

dog star
The Sirius crop trials give a very good indication of what can be achieved with Poly4 as a straight and part of a mix - these been very promising. But it will be up to individual farmers and growers how they use the product.

As a grower I find that simplicity is the key to success - in many cases fertilizer companies tend to overcomplicate things, mainly I think for marketing reasons and to sell a more expensive product that will do just as good a job as a cheaper one.

dog star
My initial thought were that someone like Yara would make a good partner but now I am not so sure - the problem with using a fertiliser company is that they would line up Poly4 with their own products and market it at their own pace and price.

ADM use a distuptive wholesale model in the US dealing direct with producers, they are not manufacturers - they also offer farmers a one stop service on a wide range of other services from finance to seed purchase and crop purchase. The price they charge for all their services is set by the market.

ADM also have a UK company called Gleadell that they part own the the French agricultural company Invivo - both companies have a similar wholesale chain to ADM.

ADM have already started to promote Poly4 to US Farmers - ADM also have a tie up to Wilmar - another Sirius partner in SE Asia.

I was wondering who might have the most to gain from Trump's recent market wrecking actions.

This is an interesting read for conspiracy theorists -

https://www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives/sh/wex94ODaUs/trump-robert-mercer-billionaire/

It looks like we can conclude that there was some sort of problem with load 29.

Heather Knutsen wasn't at AK long enough to get a full load - only 22 hours - she is now hooked up at Glen Lyon presumably for a small top up.

AK's AIS still isn't functioning - it went off at around 23.00 on Sunday evening.

It looks to me that we may have another shutdown similar to the one that followed the last gale when the AIS also failed.

Load 30 may be delayed but a few days???

Its certainly possible that any political leader could short the markets and make sure his or her actions caused the market to fall - I do wonder sometimes.

Trump criticised the Fed in this tweet - "The only problem our economy has is the Fed. They don’t have a feel for the Market, they don’t understand necessary Trade Wars or Strong Dollars or even Democrat Shutdowns over Borders. The Fed is like a powerful golfer who can’t score because he has no touch - he can’t putt!"

That was after his Treasury Secretary spooked the market when he enquired about Bank liquidity.

End result the Standard and Poor 500 has followed the Nasdaq into bear territory - POO just follows.

Marine Transport report that Heather Knutsen is now on her way to Glen Lyon with a draught of 9.2m - previously reported as 12.2m.

Heather is now expected at Sullom Voe early on Boxing Day morning - previously 24 hours earlier.

The AIS on AK has not been operating since around 23.00 has night.

The hook up to AK lasted 22 hours.

It may be Christmas but Trump continues to set the news agenda.

US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has called the largest Banks in the US to settle their nerves and to confirm their liquidity after the stock market falls - the Nasdaq is now in bear territory.

Trump has privately said that he may fire Powell.

Meanwhile WTI may continue to bounce because Shale producers are squealing about profitability.

Although draught is showing at 12.2m so she could have the usual 500-550k on board - but it was loaded faster than normal.

It looks to me that for whatever reason that Heather hasn't finished loading at AK and will return for another hook up.

She is currently moored around 9 nautical miles to the north of AK.

She is expected at Sullom Voe at 01.00 on Christmas Day.