Member Info for chilting

Anyone who wants to get on the ITX bandwagon now is your chance but DYOR.

The conservative estimate including DC4 is 30-35k at the end of Q1 - not sure if it is attributed to Kraken or Kraken North. Hopefully when everything is fully integrated we will see 40k+

Based on last September's update and the fact that the weather has been reasonably good in the North Sea - any bad weather has come in short intense bursts - I think it is now likely that drilling for DC4 is nearing completion and that the slow down in current production may be directly related to that.

The September update said that the infrastructure is in place for DC4, therefore, we wont see any outward sign of work in progress.

Nothing to report.

The trouble is that Brent fell on real news this time - bad import and export figures from China - the bull is knackered .

Hopefully if we get some good news on US/China tariffs that will start the bull running again.

scott
The risk I don't think is the borrowing element of stage 2 - it is the funding for the additional capital expenditure announced in September.

If we get some dilution the SP will obviously be affected - if the cash comes from a rights issue it could be a substantial fall but if it comes from a strategic partner the SP might actually even rise in "relief"

Personally I would buy now - if I had the cash.

I don't think the market in general is particularly interested in the construction updates unless they contain negatives - I have noticed in the past that even when a company produces news of a marvellous leap in technology the market hardly reacts.

The only thing that will move the SP is news on stage 2 - in fact even a fantastic construction update may have a very short term negative effect on the SP because it is not a financial update.

But as practical private investors we have the edge because we understand Sirius much more that the city types - especially when we pool our knowledge.

Thank you PAAA

I guess we all have to be patient - that will be much easier with the knowledge that there is around three months leeway in the financial schedule.

Any delay in stage 2 funding only becomes a problem if construction has so be slowed down or stopped.

Do we currently have any indication how long the stage one funds will last?

The update schedule isn't actually very regular at all - looking at 2018 the updates were issued in weeks 2, 13, 27 and 39 - but I guess we are due a construction update this week or next.

chemistry
This certainly is an interesting study and I would guess Sirius know exactly what they are doing here - it may be a long shot but if is found that Poly4 is more effective at tackling Sodium levels than Gypsum and if it is cost effective the implications could be mind blowing.

The next step would be to do field trials - if that has not already started - maybe ICL have had similar ideas and done some trials - it may explain their continued interest in keeping Boulby open.

Thank you chemistry

The possible benefits to farming from this research are expanded upon here.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn26462-farm-salt-poisoning-costs-27-billion-annually/

Heather Knutsen is off to another field.

No free tankers at the moment - nothing to indicate STS at Scapa Flo or Sullom Voe.

Delay will now be at least 3-4 days.

As I mentioned before I think InVivo would be a good partner for Sirius and with $1.1 billion to spend after selling their animal nutrition business to ADM they clearly have the cash to invest in Sirius.

Add to that their stated aim to use the capital to "clean up" agriculture - what could be better than an organic fertiliser - and you have a perfect case for investment in Sirius.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-invivo-agriculture/invivo-looks-to-pesticide-free-food-french-bread-for-future-growth-idUSKBN1OH1Z2

Yes, I would agree, hopefully the Saudi's will take the sanction busting into account.

This news should improve sentiment and go someway to giving us Brent above $65 and maybe even $70.

We still need good news on Chinese-US tariffs though to give Brent the stability it had back in the summer.

The chinese will I think hold their economy together and endure the pain simply because of the central control by the communist party.

The 15m in September was more of a compromise and an acceptance that Enquest had to continue to work with Bumi without prejudicing the long term relationship between the companies which seemed to be at a fairly low point anyway.

September marked the start of a very steep decline in Bumi's SP - down from 0.70 to just 0.165 today.

If this is true !!!

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-iran-usa-sanctions-hook/u-s-not-looking-to-grant-further-iran-oil-sales-waivers-u-s-official-idUKKCN1P606D

On the balance of probability after observing the tanker movements since production started I think the problem is with AK rather than the field.

We have certainly seen at least two shutdowns that have been directly weather related and the last Christmas shutdown, although not directly weather related, put out the AIS for several days and delayed production for seven days.

The first problem occured when AK was being towed to the North Sea - she suffered an outage in Biscay - this may have been the reason that she spent time in Rotterdam.

Hopefully the issues can be resolved and with DC4 we may well see production back towards or even exceeding 50k.

Another possible partner could be the French firm Invivo - they are in partnership with ADM in the ownership of Gleadell.

Invivo have a similar business model to ADM - they also have a policy of forming strategic alliances with suppliers.

https://www.invivo-group.com/en/agricultural-supplies/

https://www.gleadell.co.uk/about/

Hello Squif

Load 28 was early December - about 8th

Load 29 should have been at Christmas but AK had a problem and no crude was offloaded - the load was finally transferred when Heather Knutsen returned to AK in the new year.

Load 30 no sign yet.