Member Info for chilting

IK is now just 1.3 nautical miles to the south west of AK and closing in for a hook up in the next hour or so.

Putting this deal into context, Ocado has just sold its technology - including the robots - into the most technologically advanced country in the world - WOW!!

Where next in Asia - South Korea, China....

IK is still 10.5 nautical miles south of AK moving at just 3.3 knots towards the north - so no sign of urgency towards a hook up.

The weather is improving all the time and is set fine into next week.

The November 11th update has certainly made a big difference and I think given CF the best chance of progressing the project.

We are now seeing positivity and even a gradual recovery in the SP and the pressure has lessened on CF even though time marches on - also he hasn't hamstrung himself with any self imposed deadlines or spoken to the national press.

The strategy is now in place - it will now either be successful or otherwise - we await developments but we may not see anything before the spring - but I am much more confident now than I was at the beginning of November when the wheels seemed to be coming off the bus.

IK isn't showing any urgency to reach AK - she is still around 50 nautical miles away.

The weather isn't great at the moment but is due to improve by the morning.

There is plenty of time for a Friday morning hook up.

Ingrid Knutsen is just 90 miles to the south of AK and looks set to arrive at the Kraken field late this evening.

The AIS is still very poor so it may be difficult to see when she hooks up - it will hopefully be tomorrow morning.

The weather is fine and sunny at the moment with a brisk north wind and moderately high seas but the forecast is better for tomorrow with the wind easing and the wave height falling.

With the north wind hook up will be from the south but as the wind eases this may change.

Excellent news - a new tanker due late tomorrow evening so we should see a Friday hook up - that would be just nine days from the last departure.

On a point of interest Ingrid Knutsen is not in the Teekay Fleet - unless she has recently been chartered in - so Enquest may have switched from Teekay to Knutsen for their shuttle services.

The weather is starting to look a bit more like the North Sea in Autumn but by no means a problem.

I think that all you can say is that - politicians of all sides are still there to be swayed - no decisions have been made - all is still to be played for.

But the Brexit issue needs to be sorted before any decisions are made - that means leaving soon and sorting out future tariffs quickly - personally I would much rather we stayed in but that is all history now - for the sake of our economy and that includes SM - we need action now.

Its not NO this time - she is off to Knarr.

The question was - why are investors giving Enquest the cold shoulder and keeping the SP flat? - regrettably there are so many reasons that until there is a compelling reason to invest here - improvement in the reported numbers - we won't get the rise that we know as investors is justified.

Myo - your second point -
"Further to the recent signing of the Middle Eastern sales agreement with Qatari state owned Muntajat (2mtpa by year 5), there was reference to Sirius working with Muntajat to explore the downstream combination of POLY4 with nitrogen products in Qatar and/or the United Kingdom to create a value-added multi-nutrient fertilizer. "

I do wonder if this could be a way of pushing the whole project forward - the establishment of a new fertiliser manufacturing plant to produce an NPK version of Poly4 on Teesside - funded by Qatar and Yara - may encourage inward investment and Government help.

I think that there are multiple reasons why the SP is so low with no one reason being the dominant one.

These are - low volume - little interest from institutional investors - high debt level - oil price uncertainty both from a political and economic viewpoint - poor PR from Enquest - misleading broker reviews - market manipulation - climate change fears with lack of investors willing to invest in oil - company set up with so much reliance on Kraken and Magnus to perform - uncertainty on future tax policy with regard to oil - threat to the North Sea industry from SNP - high cost base for production compared to other production areas - apathy.

Until the financial results speak for themselves I can see little changing but the potential for that to happen is now very high - just be patient.

I would agree with Mr.dt
However, I think the actual successful outcome of inward investment from a strategic partner or partners is dependent on a swift conclusion of the Brexit issue with clarity needed not just on membership but on future tariffs etc.

Chrisatbirdies
A sideways shift can work if you know the other company you are investing in well - especially if the other company has also had problems but still has potential. I moved 50% of my investment to ITX - their SP is still to recover after Woodford sold about half of the companies shares - they have massive potential. I should point out that they are a tiny AIM listed company.

There is another option - sell part of your holding in SXX and invest it in another company that has high potential for gain - in that way you at least spread the risk.

Long term holders will remember when we through that long period when the SP was clearly being manipulated to keep the SP low.

Looking at the trades today I do wonder if history is repeating itself? With the volume being so low it clearly isn't much of a challenge to hold the SP at these low levels.

Rather than market sentiment being poor, I would say that it is simply indifferent.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/stocks/exchange-insight/trade-data.html?page=0&pageOffBook=0&fourWayKey=GB00B635TG28GBGBXSSMM&formName=frmRow&upToRow=-1

Part 2 excluding graphs -

We have a company that has momentum in its EBITDA growth, they have production growth in recent years, they are eager to reduce their debt. The latest report showed 27% production growth, 11% lower production costs, 8% lower net debt and 12% lower financing costs. Enquest pays most of its high-interest debt in advance to reduce interest costs.
The fact that the Chairman of the Board does not buy huge shareholdings in such a situation where the fundamentals start to move in the right direction while the price ranges and volatility are at their historically lowest level ever suggest that something is going on. The case indicates that the volatility of the stock is reversed, the case also indicates that the volatility occurs on the upside and not the downside.
What are the risks? Production decline / cost increases - worse EBITDA than expected, forced to increase debt / issue even more shares. All of this would depress the share price. None of this is an unthinkable scenario. We buy in today's level and consider the case dead if the course moves down to 2.06
Finally, there are potential bonuses that are not part of the basic case:
The company guides for drilling programs in the western kraken field during 2020 that may be successful. There are also more opportunities for oil extraction in the magnus and PM8 / Seligi fields.
An oil price of 70usd instead of 60usd generates an additional 60msud EBITDA according to Enquest.

Here it is -
Oil and gas company that was defunct from Lundin Petroleum. Enquest operates in the UK and Malaysia. As so often, the spin-off company was left with a fairly large debt burden. In addition, the 2014 oil price collapse suffered. Many factors have long opposed Enquest. Should this long downward trend continue or will the company finally be given some momentum on the upside?
The number of shares
1659 million
Course
2.32kr - market cap: 314MSUD
EBIT growth per share on an annual basis
Releases only half year results
q4 18 + q2 19 = 1.41 + 1.01 = 2.42kr
q4 17 + q2 18 = 0.09-0.75 = -0.66kr
EBIT growth per share, quarter from the previous year's quarter
q2 19 SEK 1.01 against q2 18 1.14, however, the share portfolio increased by 43% during this period
q4 18 1.41 kr against q4 17 -0.75 kr
Sales growth per share on an annual basis
Again, only release half year results
q4 18 + q2 19 = 5.84 + 4.75 = 10.59kr
q4 17 + q2 18 = 1.94 + 4.30 = 6.24kr
EV / EBIT
If you count on q2 19, then EV's current rate will be 2.32 + 13.9 (net debt) = 16.22.
If you count q4 18 + q2 19 then EBIT will be SEK 2.42. 16.22 / 2.42 = 6.7
Neither particularly expensive nor cheap, but considering the possibility that the company puts continued effort into reducing its net debt (without issuing shares) while EBIT growth continues through continued production increase and cost optimization, the share price should rise if the valuation is to continue.
In addition, it should be borne in mind that the main reason why the difference is so large between EBIT and actual profit (calculated on q2 1.01-0.26 = SEK 0.75) is that in the EBIT word that stands for interest (interest costs) the profit is consumed .
If the company continues with its installment plans, it will not only reduce EV / EBIT (alternatively up the share price), but also deliver actual profit through lower interest costs and amortization. This enables Enquest to deliver dividends or other price-boosting activities (investments in new fields?).
However, in order for the share price to go up, debt restructuring must be financed through its organic operations and not through new issues.
Gearing
Debt / EBITDA = 1.8 based on June figures
Trend down from a peak of 6.6 2017.
This is due to both a reduction in debt and an increase in EBITDA - the trend is moving in the right direction
For example, Net debt is down 8% compared to 2018 and EBITDA is up 13% between
q2 19 and q4 18
Board ownership share - new purchase?
From q4 2018 until today, 14M shares have been net purchased, in particular from Amjad Bseisu, the CEO.
technical:
Weekly chart: SEK

That sounds to me like management putting a positive spin on things to keep morale up.

Like everything else in the US the fate of the shale industry may well depend on who wins the election next year.

Trump has shown little regard for the environment and with him everything goes but if a democrat wins on a climate change agenda the onshore oil industry is likely to face a brick wall of legislation that could halt new development and simply leave it to fade away.