Member Info for chilting

The last time AIS picked up TK was about 15.00 GMT - still about 11 miles east of AK - it is likely she is still around that area but just possible that we have had a hook up - the AIS is so bad and high seas seem to make it much worst.

Tomorrow after about 10am - more likely pm - looks to be the favourite weather wise.

Some more very welcome news from one of SM's offtake partners.

Wilmar - after coming under pressure from their customers and Greenpeace - are now only using palm oil produced from sustainable sources.

Yes, big questions for Tullow - can it service debt on the revised production - can it spend to increase production - how much are its assets worth and more importantly how much would it get for those assets in a forced sale - hopefully it can pull through but the SP will remain very subdued - certainly not a buy.

The truth lies somewhere in-between the intense pessimism of illbetween and the more exuberant posters.

Confidence is growing towards a solution of SM's financial woes but any resolution will be tempered by dilution.

It will probably be a long time before long term holders turn a profit but when we do the rewards in terms of capital growth and dividends will be very acceptable.

No hook up yet - TK is about 12 nautical miles to the east of AK at the moment.

Thursday pm would seem to be the most likely outcome - when the weather improves a bit - that would be 12 days since the last tanker left.

https://www.windfinder.com/forecast/viking_north_sea

I cannot be 100% sure because of the poor AIS but it looks like TK is currently around 12 nautical miles to the NE of AK - she is only within satellite range at the moment.

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:1.6/centery:59.9/zoom:10

It looks like the hook up will be from the north west so TK will have to come right around AK - AIS is poor from now on so it may be difficult to follow.
The weather is dreadful not easing until Thursday PM

Hello Kraken
Yes, just 15 nautical miles away now and still travelling at over 11 knots.

TK is just 40 miles away from AK now and speeding towards her at over 13 knots - maybe they have seen a weather window for hook up?
https://www.windfinder.com/forecast/viking_north_sea

No problem with that John - at least we have stability - I think that is all we can ask for ahead of news - the November 11th update calmed investors nerves - the main thing is that so far we have avoided another step down and denied the shorts another windfall - we should get more positive news within the next six weeks or so.

This was the last load transferred in Scapa Flo to the Eco Bel Air - more crude was added to the load at Rotterdam by STS in the outer harbour - Eco Bel Air is currently heading through the English Channel on route to Port Said - so a different market - probably Asia - previous loads have gone to Singapore and India.

Kraken crude seems to be finding customers all around the globe now - the dependence on the US market seems to have gone since last summer - hopefully, as indicated in the last update, there is still a good price premium against Brent.

Some good news - it looks like the hook up may be planned for Thursday - the forecast is a little better by then - TK is expected at Scapa Flo on Friday evening at 21.00 GMT - Thursday would be 12 days from the last hook.

From the timing of TK's ETA it looks like AK would have be ready for hook up tomorrow - so if its Thursday that will mean that we have lost no more than two days, although hopefully AK still has storage space to continue production unless the high seas mean that production is halted.

https://www.windfinder.com/forecast/viking_north_sea

Its absolutely dreadful for Tullow Share Holders, especially long term holders, the SP was close to £2.50 back in September - its also difficult to see any sort of decent bounce.
As for the rest of the sector, I think all small oil companies are in danger of being tarred with the same brush and investors will give them a wide berth - a bad day for all of us I think - especially the harsh degree of the response by the market.

On the subject of dividends -
In an ideal world it would be great and if Enquest wasn't in the oil business it would be an excellent idea.
But, we don't know what price Brent will be tomorrow - let alone in six months time - also maybe we could have production problems - so with this level of debt paying a dividend would I think be rather reckless.

Not looking good for us but even worst at PMO - now down around 8.5%.

Tullow still falling - around 57%

Just to confirm Torill Knutsen is on her way to Kraken - ETA 4.00 GMT tomorrow morning.
The weather around Shetland is very lively this week so it may not be until Friday before we see a hook up.
However, TK is certainly the best tanker in the North Sea to handle these conditions - she is a modern tanker adapted for Artic conditions - this week will be a good test.

ETA at Kraken is now showing as 04.00GMT on Tuesday morning.

Londoner
It may still be 13-14 days due to the weather unless TK can perform miracles.
We have been so lucky this autumn - the weather around Shetland has for the most part been very calm - Shetland only had 15% of its normal rainfall - the next few months could be very different and stuff up some of the optimistic production numbers.

The forecast for up to Thursday is still bad but of all the Shuttle tankers in the North Sea Torill Knutsen is best equipped to deal with the weather - her spec is for artic conditions.
http://www.knotoffshorepartners.com/fleet/default.aspx#section=fleet

Excellent news - Torill Knutsen is on her way to Kraken - she has just set off from Skagen - not ETA yet but it could be as early as tomorrow.
The only problem is the weather....