Member Info for chilting

Merry Christmas everybody and a very and prosperous Happy New Year.

2020 is the year of the Mole - the Sirius Mole.

This is excellent news and it keeps Kraken production more or less on the track with the previous few months.

We had a load on 30th November and 15th December - so that's 15 days between including the weather delay of 4 days - both these loads were about 525k.

Then we had the small load on the 23rd - say 150k - but could be as much as 215k

Now we have IK on the way on the 26th so if the hook up is on Boxing day that would give us an average of just over 46k per day.

Yes all today and up until 12.30GMT tomorrow - closed 25-26th - open 27th and 30th - 31st open up until 12.30GMT - Jan 1st closed.

Londoner - What shows as a decline could simply be that Enquest are extracting more from Kraken than Kraken North at the moment due to operational reasons.

It looks like the hook up lasted until about 01.30 GMT this morning with a potential 200k load but that is by no means clear as discussed earlier.
Anyway it was probably at least 100k.

I guess Pelle could be right - it did seem that BK hooked up yesterday - she was certainly very close to AK but the AIS was poor so it is difficult to be sure - maybe she transferred some or all of her light oil for AK to use yesterday and came back today for some Kraken crude to take to market. So as MO said she could have a 215k load from AK.

I am not a technical expert but could the reason for this be that the lighter crude runs AK better - particularly at this time of year?

Betty Knutsen seems to still be hooked up - although AIS is poor so its difficult to be sure.

No luck with Torill Knutsen - she is off to the the Barents Sea, north of Norway - I guess they only get about an one hours daylight per day at this time of year.

No other obvious candidates at the moment - Le Havre is still delaying shuttle tankers that visit that port, so that could be the reason BK used her spare capacity for Kraken.

The latest plan for Sullom Voe is outlined in a video dated 12th December.
Enquest are certainly trying to clean up their image of a high carbon oil producer by saying that the terminal will be powered by wind power some time in the future - maybe this will help the SP?
Nothing is said about the plan to scale back the workforce by 25% from January - maybe this has changed - the unions were talking about strike action.

Sullom Voe is the most northerly industrial site in the UK and with its deep water port there must be potential for other uses than just an oil terminal - hydrogen production for example - maybe this is part of Enquest's future away from oil?

https://www.shetlandtimes.co.uk/2019/12/12/watch-enquest-transforming-sullom-voe-terminal

The weather is set fine right through until next weekend.

Expecting another tanker 24th-26th December - in addition to BK - to maintain production levels of the last few months.

Neil
It would only have been for a couple of days - not 4 or 5 - also, I am not sure what the capacity of the crude waiting to be processed is - there has to be some flex in the system.
But regardless of that there was probably at least 75k of oil left when TK left because the last load was around 525k.

Betty Knutsen is close to hook up - or she may already be hooked up - not sure because the AIS is bad.

With her small capacity I just hope that she will be followed within a couple of days by a larger shuttle tanker.

Torill Knutsen is still at Scapa Flo and is due to leave this morning - so maybe she will follow.

If AK did continue production as normal through the stormy period this move to use Betty is good news and will probably mean that production has been maintained at around the 50k mark but we need another tanker before Christmas, or just after, to confirm that.

Yes I agree - 75k is the tops.
I worry that AK still has the potential to disappoint during the winter - hopefully last weeks storms didn't cause any problems.

Torill Knutsen is still moored is Scapa Flo - due to leave Saturday morning - if the timetable is to be maintained she could be back with AK on Monday.

The weather looks good throughout the Christmas period.

Not true - Muntajat and their partner Yara clearly have seen the potential and want part of the action alongside ICL.

from RNS October 11th 2019
Chris Fraser Managing Director and CEO of Sirius, comments:
"We are delighted to expand our growing partnership with Qatar through this long-term supply agreement with Muntajat. Qatar is already a major investor in Sirius via QIA and Sirius is working with Muntajat to explore the downstream combination of POLY4 with nitrogen products in Qatar and/or the United Kingdom to create a value-added multi-nutrient fertilizer. This new supply agreement with Muntajat provides us with access to a number of new markets for POLY4 and further underpins the large scale, international market appetite for POLY4, lifting our aggregate peak sales volumes to 13.8 Mtpa."

Scotman
If you look at this from Haifa Group you can see what range of products could be produced using polyhalite as one of the constituents - I guess in a few years time this is the sort of range ICL are planning.
Using polyhalite as a sub for other chemicals will I think give very significant cost savings in manufacture.

https://www.haifa-group.com/multi-k-potassium-nitrate-fertilizers-formula

Polysulphate Premium is to all effects the same as Poly4 - the only difference is the binding agent used - we can probably assume that the spheres are the same size but they may be a slightly different size.
I expect that ICL will go on to produce all sorts of variants of Polysulphate Premium - look out for slow release forms - these will be in a much higher price bracket - they have the technology - in fact they are the world leaders.

It will be interesting to see what happens when trading starts in the US this afternoon.

Additional listing in the US - starts today - no extra shares issued - to enable US investors to trade easier - has to be win win for all investors.

Load 53 is on its way to Freeport in the Bahamas - as can be seen from this map there is quite a large refinery there.

The load looks to be around 525k confirming the TK estimate.

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:-78.793/centery:26.508/zoom:14

As Chesh says its a catch 22 situation -
But things are moving strongly in our direction - the tunnel is well ahead of schedule - real progress is being made elsewhere despite the slowdown and maybe more importantly polyhalite has now been proven in the market place.
Backing SM now is far less of a gamble than it was even a few months ago and politicians also have a lot to gain by backing SM - its win - win all round!!!

avocet
The point is that the Government doesn't have to stump up any cash at all - simply issue Government Guarantees.
So its something they can do to make a big difference - alongside other projects that will probably cost billions.
All the Government have to do is to satisfy themselves that SM are capable of completing the project and that there is demand for polyhalite.